Special WG Discussion Points: 2024 Post-Election Analysis

WG Discussion Points | David Winston

December 2, 2024

As a special edition of Discussion Points, we are releasing our analysis of the 2024 presidential election. While there are many important points, here are four critical ones.

Democrats' percentage of the electorate fell to a historic low, and they are now a smaller portion of the electorate than both Republicans and independents. The last time independents were larger than one of the two major parties was during the Watergate era. Democrats went from 37% of the electorate in 2020 to 31% in 2024, while independents went from 27% in 2020 to 34% in 2024.
In all seven competitive states, Trump improved with independents. In four of those states, his margin improved by double digits - Georgia +20, Arizona +18, Pennsylvania +15, and Wisconsin +11. Nationally, his margin improved among independents by +10.
Democrats’ margin among women fell dramatically, as Biden won them by 15 in 2020, and Harris won them by 8. The abortion issue did not turn out voters at the scale that Democrats anticipated. Voters who thought abortion should be legal in most cases split their vote evenly between Harris and Trump, 49-49. In contrast, Biden won these voters by 38 points in 2020, 68-30.
While voters said democracy was marginally more important than the economy (34-32), the economy decided this race. 75% of the electorate said inflation had been a hardship, resulting in 31% of the electorate thinking the economy was excellent/good while 68% thought it was not so good/poor. When asked which candidate would be trusted more to handle the economy, Trump won 53-46. Democrats’ emphasis on “democracy” did not benefit Harris nor their candidates, as voters who said democracy was threatened voted for Trump by a small margin.

We’ll have more election insights in upcoming editions of Discussion Points, including analysis of the Senate races.