Macron to Address France After Three-Month-Old Government Collapses |
President Emmanuel Macron is due to address the nation tonight after a day of rushedly vetting replacements for his prime minister. Premier Michel Barnier met with Macron for over an hour this morning after the legislature ousted his minority government yesterday—an event without precedent since 1962. Far-left and far-right parties united against Barnier, who tried to push through an austerity budget without congressional backing. Macron had tried to address the fractures in French politics with a snap election in July. But the vote to eject the leadership leaves France in simmering instability, not unlike fellow European power Germany, which is headed toward its own early election.
Barnier’s successor will face the same challenge of passing a budget, with a year-end deadline looming. A recent poll by Toluna Harris Interactive found that some 64 percent of voters wanted Macron to resign too. Under the French constitution, the earliest another parliamentary election could be held is July. (Reuters, Le Monde, AP, FT)
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“At stake for Macron is salvaging the remainder of his second term while protecting what is left of his record, especially on the economy, where he enacted business-friendly reforms and tax cuts. But the president’s ability to impose a fix has been undermined by the shrinking of his centrist Renaissance party in the wake of July’s snap elections,” the Financial Times’ Leila Abboud, Adrienne Kiasa, and Ian Johnston write.
“[In the coming years] there is sure to be more, not less, transatlantic discord over trade, industrial policy, and defense. The [European Union (EU)] faces pressure to do more on all fronts. That would have been a daunting challenge for the EU, even with France and Germany leading the charge. But with Paris and Berlin now locked in major domestic battles, it will be an even steeper hill to climb,” CFR Senior Fellow Matthias Matthijs wrote for Foreign Affairs in June.
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South Korea’s Yoon Names New Defense Leader in Fight for Political Survival |
President Yoon Suk Yeol named Choi Byung Hyuk, South Korea’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, as the new defense minister. The previous defense minister resigned after Yoon’s short-lived declaration of martial law on Tuesday night. Yoon faces an impeachment vote later this week; public polling indicates that South Koreans largely want to see him ousted. (Nikkei)
U.S./China: Beijing announced sanctions on thirteen U.S. military firms after Washington authorized a potential $385-plus million arms sale to Taiwan and Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te visited U.S. territory. U.S. defense companies are typically already largely banned from doing business in China. (Reuters, NYT)
CFR expert David Sacks illustrates why China would struggle to invade Taiwan.
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Bangladesh’s Hasina Gives First Public Speech Since Being Deposed |
Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina spoke from India, where she has been living since her being kicked out in early August. She accused Bangladesh’s interim government of “genocide” and failing to protect Hindus and other ethnic minorities, and said she was aware of plans to assassinate her. (Indian Express)
Pakistan: The Islamabad High Court issued an arrest warrant for Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, for failing to appear at her past ten hearings. She had been jailed alongside Khan in July, but released on bail. (Dawn)
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Middle East and North Africa |
Iran Releases Nobel Laureate Mohammadi For Twenty-One Days Due to Medical Issue
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Narges Mohammadi was let out of jail following an invasive surgery, her foundation said. She is one of Iran’s most prominent political organizers; her foundation said her need for specialized medical care means she should be immediately released or at least granted leave for three months. Temporary permission to recover outside prison is rare in Iran. (WSJ)
Israel/Palestinian territories: Amnesty International said in a report yesterday there was “sufficient evidence to believe” Israel’s war conduct in the Gaza Strip amounts to genocide. The report cited what it called mass killings and actions meant to bring about the destruction of Palestinians “in whole or part.” Israel said the report was “entirely baseless” and that it failed to account for operational realities in Gaza as well as Hamas’s violations of international humanitarian law. The Israel branch of Amnesty International rejected the conclusion. (CNN, Haaretz)
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South African Court Rules Government Cannot Procure More Coal-Fired Power |
A government plan to procure 1,500 megawatts of coal-fired power violates the right to health, the High Court ruled. The country is working on transitioning its power sector, some 80 percent of which is coal-reliant, to clean sources. Pollution from fuel kills hundreds of people annually in South Africa, its state power utility Eskom acknowledged. (Bloomberg)
CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo gets into whether South Africa can escape its coal-ridden problems.
U.S./Angola: U.S. President Joe Biden wrapped up a trip to Angola yesterday meeting with leaders from several regional countries regarding a U.S.-backed rail corridor that could bring minerals from Congo and Zambia into markets in Western countries. The United States provided a $550 million loan to support the project, aiming to break ground in 2026. (Reuters)
CFR expert Michelle Gavin provides a view of how Biden’s long-awaited Africa trip went.
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WSJ: Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Meets With Trump Team |
Advisor to the Ukrainian presidency Andriy Yermak met yesterday with Vice President JD Vance as well as President-Elect Donald Trump’s nominees for national security advisor and special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, unnamed sources told the Wall Street Journal. Special envoy choice Keith Kellogg has signaled support for rushing arms to Ukraine in order to give it leverage in peace talks, but the peace plans discussed by Trump’s team do not include Kyiv joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). (WSJ)
Yermak came to CFR this fall to speak about the status of Ukraine’s war with Russia.
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Mexico Announces Largest-Ever Fentanyl Seizure |
Mexican officials called the seizure announced yesterday the largest in their country’s history and said the amount seized was equivalent to over twenty million doses of fentanyl pills, worth nearly $400 million. Separately, authorities said they detained upwards of 5,200 migrants across the country in a twenty-four-hour period. The steps come after Trump threatened 25 percent tariffs on Mexico if it did not curb illegal migration and drug trafficking. (NYT, Reuters, WaPo)
This episode of Why It Matters explains the roles that China and Mexico have in the U.S. fentanyl epidemic.
Colombia: President Gustavo Petro promoted finance ministry official Diego Guevara to be the country’s new finance minister after his predecessor Ricardo Bonilla resigned over a corruption probe. Bonilla denied wrongdoing. (Bloomberg)
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White House: Chinese Hackers Compromised Eight Telecom Firms |
The hacking group known as Salt Typhoon breached eight U.S. telecommunications companies, a top White House cyber official said yesterday without specifying the firms. The Wall Street Journal previously reported they included AT&T and Verizon. On Tuesday, FBI and Cyber Security Infrastructure Agency officials speaking to reporters declined to set a timetable for when U.S. systems would be free of interlopers but recommended that Americans use encrypted messaging apps. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately comment. (Bloomberg, NBC)
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