“Israel threatened on Tuesday to return to war in Lebanon if its truce with
Hezbollah collapses, and said this time its attacks would go deeper and target
the Lebanese state itself, after the deadliest day since the ceasefire was
agreed last week. In its strongest threat since the truce was agreed to end 14
months of war with Hezbollah, Israel said it would hold Lebanon responsible for
failing to disarm militants who violate the ceasefire. "If we return to war we
will act strongly, we will go deeper, and the most important thing they need to
know: that there will be no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon,"
Defence Minister Israel Katz said. "If until now we separated the state of
Lebanon from Hezbollah... it will no longer be [like this]," he said during a
visit to the northern border area.”











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Eye on Extremism



December 4, 2024



Reuters: Israel Threatens To Expand War If Hezbollah Truce Collapses
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“Israel threatened on Tuesday to return to war in Lebanon if its truce with
Hezbollah collapses, and said this time its attacks would go deeper and target
the Lebanese state itself, after the deadliest day since the ceasefire was
agreed last week. In its strongest threat since the truce was agreed to end 14
months of war with Hezbollah, Israel said it would hold Lebanon responsible for
failing to disarm militants who violate the ceasefire. "If we return to war we
will act strongly, we will go deeper, and the most important thing they need to
know: that there will be no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon,"
Defence Minister Israel Katz said. "If until now we separated the state of
Lebanon from Hezbollah... it will no longer be [like this]," he said during a
visit to the northern border area.”



The New York Times: Why Israel And Hezbollah Are Still Firing Amid A Cease-Fire

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“A deal to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon went into
effect last Wednesday, but already there have been multiple claims of
cease-fire violations by either side. They have continued to fire on each
other, though at a far less intense pace, raising questions about the
durability of the truce. No one is saying the deal has collapsed. “I’ve been
around Lebanon cease-fire agreements for decades, and there was no cease-fire
agreement that wasn’t initially broken,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior
fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and a former State Department Middle East
analyst and negotiator. The real question, he suggested, is whether the parties
have the will to absorb violations and exercise restraint while they get
through the initial 60-day phase.”




The CEP CounterPoint: Expert Analysis

*
“Dark Foreigner”: Canada’s Outsized Far-Right Export
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CEP – KAS: Sahel Monitoring June 2024
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ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In October 2024
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Antisemitism In Amsterdam: Even Soccer Fans Cannot Escape Double Standards
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ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In September 2024
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CEP Mentions



The Arab Weekly: Experts Doubt Qaeda-Linked Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham Has
Fundamentally Changed
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“... Hans-Jakob Schindler, the director of the Counter Extremism Project
(CEP), said this was justified. “If you have to ask for permission before you
break ties with al-Qaeda, from the leadership of al-Qaeda, the sincerity of the
ideological reorientation is in question,” he said. He pointed to the case of a
young Austrian man who Munich police shot dead in September after he opened
fire at the Israeli consulate in the German city. Investigators last year found
three videos he had recorded in 2021, showing scenes from a computer game “with
Islamist content”, according to Austrian prosecutors. In one of them, the
suspect had used an avatar with a flag of the “al-Nusra Front”, the name of HTS
before it severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016.”



Barron’s: What We Know About The North Syria Rebel Offensive
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“Islamist-led rebels are pressing a major offensive in northern Syria in which
they seized the second city Aleppo from the government for the first time since
civil war erupted in 2011… Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the think tank the
Counter Extremism Project (CEP), said now was the ideal time for the rebels to
attack. "The Assad regime is truly not very strong," he told AFP. Its major
backers, Russia and Iran along with Lebanon's Hezbollah, "all have other issues
to deal with right now", he added. Assad has long counted on military, economic
and diplomatic support from Tehran and Moscow, which is tied up with its
conflict in Ukraine, while Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah has taken a
beating in its recent war with Israel.”



Le Progres: Capture Of Aleppo, Sending Of Iranian Troops... We Summarize The
Current Military Escalation
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“Rebel groups led by radical Islamists Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are continuing
their military escalation in northern Syria, after capturing Aleppo, the
country's second city, which has escaped full regime control for the first time
since 2011. On Tuesday, the rebels moved closer to Hama, the country's fourth
city, which regime forces are trying to block access to, supported by Russian
aircraft… On Saturday, President Bashar al-Assad vowed to "defeat" the
"terrorists" with "the help of his allies." But what if the situation had
changed? Moscow is absorbed by the war in Ukraine and Tehran by an explosive
regional situation that has weakened its allies, first and foremost Hezbollah
in Lebanon, after two months of war with Israel. The rebels have chosen the
"ideal" moment to launch their offensive, believes Hans-Jakob Schindler, of the
think tank Counter-Extremism Project (CEP), as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah
"have other problems to solve at the moment."”



United States



BBC: Trump Appears To Threaten Hamas With ‘All Hell To Pay’ Over Hostages
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“US President-elect Donald Trump has issued an apparent warning to Hamas,
threatening "all hell to pay" if hostages held in Gaza are not released by the
time he returns to the White House on 20 January. Dozens of people taken during
the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack remain unaccounted for. On Monday, the Israeli
military said an Israeli-American soldier who it believed to be a captive had
in fact been killed last October. Without mentioning Hamas by name, Trump
posted online the same day: "Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody
has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America."
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump for his "strong
statement".”



Syria



The Washington Examiner: New Jihadist Offensive In Syria Leaves US With No
Good Options, Experts Say
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“The surprise offensive by Jihadist-led rebels into Aleppo reignited the
Syrian civil war after four years of relative quiet and put the United States
in an unenviable position. Hayat Tahrir al Sham, recognized as a terrorist
group by the United States, and allied militias have continued their offensive,
battling the Syrian Arab Army outside Hama. Russia, Iran, and Iran’s proxy
militias have rushed to shore up Syrian President Bashar al Assad. The U.S.,
meanwhile, appears to have been caught flat-footed, distancing itself from the
offensive, publicly denouncing both sides, and calling for “de-escalation.”
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that HTS is “a
terrorist organization designated by the United States. So, we have real
concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization.””



Reuters: Russia Strongly Backs Syrian Leadership, Says Rebels Are Getting
Support From Outside
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“Russia said on Wednesday that it strongly backs the actions of the Syrian
leadership to counter an offensive by what it said were terrorist groups
receiving support, including drones and training, from outside the country. "We
strongly condemn this attack ... There is no doubt that they would not have
dared to commit such an audacious act without the instigation and comprehensive
support of external forces that seek to provoke a new round of armed
confrontation in Syria, unfurl a the spiral of violence," Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters. Russia is a key ally of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad and has provided him with military support since 2015
in the country's civil war. "We express solidarity with the leadership of
Syria," Zakharova said. "We strongly support the efforts of the Syrian
authorities to counter terrorist groups and restore constitutional order."”



Afghanistan



The Independent: Taliban Bans Women From Training As Midwives
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“Women in Afghanistan have been banned from training to become midwives in
the latest crackdown unveiled by the Taliban. Trainee midwifery students, who
have been ordered to no longer attend classes, urged Taliban leaders to allow
them to continue studying. A director at leading global charity Human Rights
Watch said the measures would lead to women and girls dying due to struggling
to receive healthcare during childbirth. Sources close to the Taliban’s
Ministry of Public Health told BBC Radio 4’s World at One they have received
orders to shut medical institutions to female students until further notice.
Several midwifery institutions in different provinces in Afghanistan confirmed
the ban is in place to the news outlet.”



Lebanon



Associated Press: An Israeli Strike Kills A Person In Lebanon, Further Shaking
The Tenuous Ceasefire
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“Israeli forces carried out several new drone and artillery strikes in
Lebanon on Tuesday, including a deadly strike that the Health Ministry and
state media said killed one person, further shaking a tenuous ceasefire meant
to end more than a year of fighting with Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep striking “with an iron fist” against perceived
Hezbollah violations of the truce. His defense minister warned that if the
ceasefire collapses, Israel will target not just Hezbollah but the Lebanese
state — an expansion of Israel’s campaign. Israel also carried out an airstrike
in Syria, saying it killed a senior member of Hezbollah responsible for
coordinating with Syria’s army on rearming and resupplying the Lebanese
militant group.”



Reuters: Lebanese Refugees Return Home From Iraq As Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire
Holds
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“Lebanese families displaced in Iraq by the conflict between Israel and
Hezbollah have begun returning to their homes in southern Lebanon following a
recently brokered ceasefire. The cessation of hostilities has allowed many to
make the journey back, despite widespread destruction. "After two months, we
are returning to our homeland. We will return even if we find our homes
destroyed; we will sit on the ground," said Ali Abdulla, a southern Lebanon
resident, waiting along with dozens of others at Najaf airport in Iraq to fly
back to Beirut with his family. More than 20,000 Lebanese have sought refuge in
Iraq since the outbreak of the war, according to official figures seen by
Reuters. "Returning home was faster than we expected. A ceasefire has been
achieved.”



Middle East



Associated Press: Middle East Latest: Israeli Strikes On Gaza Hospital Wound
3, Netanyahu Vows ‘Iron Fist’ In Lebanon
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“Israeli drone strikes hit Kamal Adwan Hospital on Tuesday, wounding three
medical staff at one of the few hospitals still partially operating in the
northernmost part of Gaza, the facility’s director said. Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya
said the drones were dropping bombs, spraying shrapnel at the hospital. There
was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. In Lebanon, a tenuous
ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has held despite Israeli forces carrying
out several new drone and artillery strikes on Tuesday, killing a shepherd in
the country’s south. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep
striking “with an iron fist” against perceived Hezbollah violations of the
ceasefire. Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones and missiles into Israel
last year in solidarity with Hamas militants who are fighting in the Gaza
Strip.”



Africa



Associated Press: Extremist Rebels Linked To IS Kill At Least 9 And Kidnap 3
In Eastern Congo
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“Extremist rebels linked to the Islamic State group killed at least 9 people,
including an 8-month-old baby and a 14-year-old girl in eastern Congo and
kidnapped several others, authorities said on Wednesday. Rebels with the Allied
Democratic Forces attacked civilians in Tenambo village in the North Kivu
province on Tuesday evening, Colonel Mak Hazukay, spokesperson for the
Congolese army said in a statement, calling on residents to remain vigilant and
temporarily avoid isolated places. The militants also set fire to houses in the
village and kidnapped three people, the deputy mayor of Oicha, Jean De Die
Kambale Kibwana, told local media. Eastern Congo has struggled with armed
violence for decades as more than 120 groups fight for power, land and valuable
mineral resources, while others try to defend their communities. Some armed
groups have been accused of mass killings.”



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