Syrians have long comprised the largest refugee group worldwide, but nearly 14 years since the start of the Syrian civil war many are finding themselves increasingly neglected as host countries grow fatigued, international solidarity has moved on, and geopolitics have shifted. Turkey, home to 3.1 million displaced Syrians (comprising one of the world’s largest overall refugee populations), has come under repeated criticism for compelling return of Syrians across its eastern border. Technically, Syrians in Turkey have only ever benefitted from a temporary legal protection short of formal refugee status (which Turkey does not grant to people fleeing from places other than Europe, as Ayhan Kaya detailed in a wide-ranging Migration Information Source profile of the country). That has often made Syrians’ presence feel liminal and eased the path for authorities to facilitate many returns; the government often insists these returns are voluntary, though rights groups have documented that individuals are pressured or forced into moving. Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have also similarly been accused of forcing large numbers of Syrians to return, as regional countries strain from well more than a decade of hosting refugees. The tides are turning elsewhere, too. In recent weeks, leaders of various EU Member States have discussed how to increase Syrians’ voluntary return. The talks were spearheaded by Hungary, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council, and occurred amid a push by some nations for the bloc to rethink its approach to Syria. The European Union severed formal ties with the country in 2011. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “the safety and material conditions” for large-scale voluntary returns to Syria “do not yet exist.” More than half of Syrians in the Middle East say they want to return eventually, but only a small share intends to do so in the short term, according to a UNHCR survey. Many respondents cited fears about security in Syria and the ability to earn a living. At the same time, the Israeli military’s incursions into southern Lebanon since October have prompted an estimated 472,000 people to flee into Syria, 70 percent of them Syrian refugees forced back across the border. The moves are happening amid changing global politics that have started to bring Syria in from the cold. While still generally isolated, Syria last year was welcomed back into the regional Arab League, from which it had been suspended since 2011, and diplomatic engagement has slowly begun to normalize. Italy appointed an ambassador to Damascus this summer. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2017 when she was serving in Congress, which may portend a new posture from Washington, too. The slow but clear trend suggests that the international community’s ability to isolate a particular country and respond to a displacement of millions without end in sight is limited, and that capitals worldwide will likely eventually push for some sort of return. Despite the brutality of Assad’s regime, it is no longer the pariah it once was. Best regards, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
[email protected] | 
