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Grading the States' Coronavirus Control Jim Naureckas ([link removed])
I recently wrote a Twitter thread (5/12/20 ([link removed]) ) about another ([link removed]) New York Times graphic feature that was a good idea, strangely executed.
The good idea, which appears on the Times' "Coronavirus in the US" page ([link removed]) , is to sort states in terms of how well they're controlling the coronavirus outbreak, using graphs of the daily count of new cases in each state. This seems like a good choice of metric and a useful thing to keep track of, especially given how fragmented the US response has been.
As for the strange execution—well, in the category of "where new cases are increasing," the Times (as of May 16) includes both Virginia...
NYT chart of Virginia cases
...and Louisiana:
NYT chart of Louisiana cases:
Under "where new cases are mostly the same," the Times includes both Arizona...
NYT chart of Arizona cases
**
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...and Montana:
NYT chart of Montana cases
**
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And labeled as "where new cases are decreasing" are both New Hampshire...
NY Chart of New Hampshire cases
...and Vermont:
NYT Chart of Vermont cases
So in every category, the Times lumps together states that are doing an outstanding job controlling new Covid-19 cases, and other states that show little or no sign of bringing the outbreak under control. Often it's hard to discern why the Times puts a state in one category rather than another, but the bigger problem is conceptual: If you place a state that is down just slightly from a peak in a more favorable category than one that has brought new cases down to zero, because in the former cases are "decreasing" while in the latter they're "mostly the same," then you aren't helping to hold state governments responsible; you're actually obscuring which officials have implemented an effective anti-coronavirus strategy.
To demonstrate what seems to me a more useful approach to sorting states' coronavirus records, I've made charts of each state (and selected territories) and graded them according to where they are between a peak of infection and bringing new cases down to zero, and whether the direction of the number of daily new cases is up, down or more or less plateaued.
I've used the site 91-DIVOC ([link removed]) to make the charts; I used daily new cases averaged over seven days to reduce noise. The charts are laid out in a linear rather than a logarithmic scale, to make changes more apparent; they are scaled to the state's own peak.
A couple of caveats: These grades do not take into account how high each state's peak was, either in absolute or per capita terms; factoring that in would certainly change the rankings of some states. And there is some subjectivity involved in sorting this way; any two people might come up with slightly different classifications. I'm confident, though, that this ordering gives a more coherent picture than the New York Times does of which states are having more or less success at stopping the spread of the novel coronavirus.
** A
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These states and territories have been largely successful at controlling the coronavirus—bringing new cases from their peak down to zero, or close to it. They each have natural advantages: Either relatively low population density or some degree of geographic isolation. But other places with similar advantages did not do nearly so well.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Alaska
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Hawaii
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Guam
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Montana
Average Daily New Cases
Vermont
Average Daily New Cases
Virgin Islands
** B
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The states in this group have brought new cases most of the way down from their peak, but have not yet brought them to zero. Both these states had particularly bad outbreaks.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
New Jersey
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
New York
** B-
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These states have similarly brought new cases well down from their peak, but seem to have plateaued short of bringing them down to zero.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Idaho
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Louisiana
**
------------------------------------------------------------
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Michigan
** C
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These states are about halfway between their peaks and zero, and their numbers are headed downwards.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Colorado
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Kansas
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Massachusetts
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Missouri
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Nebraska
Average Daily New Cases
Pennsylvania
Average Daily New Cases
Rhode Island
** C-
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These states are also about midway between peak and elimination, but have stopped making downward progress.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Connecticut
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Florida
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Nevada
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Ohio
Average Daily New Cases
West Virginia
Average Daily New Cases
Washington State
Average Daily New Cases
Wyoming
** D
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Close to their peak, cases in these states (and one territory) are just beginning to head down.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
District of Columbia
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Iowa
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Indiana
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Maryland
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Maine
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Minnesota
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Mississippi
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
New Mexico
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
New Hampshire
Average Daily New Cases
Oregon
Average Daily New Cases
Puerto Rico
Average Daily New Cases
Wisconsin
** D
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This group of states has seen their new cases decline considerably from their peak, but they are now heading back up.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Arkansas
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Kentucky
Average Daily New Cases
Tennessee
** D-
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The number of new cases in these states has plateaued near their peak.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Alabama
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Delaware
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Georgia
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Illinois
North Dakota
Average Daily New Cases
Oklahoma
Average Daily New Cases
South Carolina
Average Daily New Cases
Utah
** F
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These states have shown little sign of controlling their coronavirus outbreaks, with new cases continuing to rise. Unfortunately, they include the most populous and second-most populous states in the union.
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
Arizona
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
California
Average Daily New Cases May 15 2020
North Carolina
Average Daily New Cases
Texas
Average Daily New Cases
Virginia
I want to reiterate that these grades reflect only the trajectory of each state's outbreak, and not the absolute magnitude of their peaks. It does matter that on California's worst day so far, it had 70 new cases per million, and on New York's worst day it had 588 per million. But in terms of guiding the national coronavirus outbreak to a successful conclusion—one that does not involve the virus spreading disastrously ([link removed]) through the entire population—the direction of each state's infection rate is critical. We need to learn from the states that have managed to control the coronavirus, and see what lessons can be applied where it is still out of control.
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