He is never playing three-dimensional chess. He’s just eating a checker.”

— Journalist Molly Jong-Fast, speaking during the end of the last Trump era.

Editor’s note: We'll be off Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving, but back in your inbox on Monday, December 2. Go spend quality time with friends and family, eat good food, and log off!

‘TARIFF MAN,’ PART DEUX

Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs threaten higher prices on gasoline and beer, and could hammer the Canadian and Mexican economies. Suddenly, we’re back to wondering: Does this guy mean what he says?

The self-proclaimed “Tariff Man” is back on his bullshit. President-elect Donald Trump kicked this week off on a chaotic note, vowing to issue executive orders imposing hefty tariffs on Washington’s three largest trade partners — China, Mexico and Canada — on the day he takes office. The goal, according to Trump, is to reduce the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S. (an assertion that prompted howls of protest from Canadian officials who retorted that America’s northern border isn’t the source of those problems). The impact, however, would push up the costs of goods from those countries for average Americans.

Take gasoline. Trump might not realize this, but seven-out-of-ten barrels of oil sent to the U.S. arrive from Canada or Mexico. Slapping a massive tariff on all that crude would spike gas prices in the American Midwest by 50 cents per gallon during the peak driving season, according to one energy analyst who spoke to Bloomberg. How would that square with Trump’s pledge to get gas prices under $2 a gallon? No idea, ask Mr. Business Genius over there.

It’s hardly just gas — it’s cars, too. Detroit-based auto manufacturer General Motors is expected to import 750,000 cars from Mexico and Canada this year alone, including the company’s popular Chevy Silverado, GMC Sierra pickups and midsized SUVs. The company’s plants in Mexico also produce GM’s new electric vehicles (which, side note, will be hit hard when Trump ends a $7,500 EV subsidy). Prices of those cars would likely jump, leading to fewer sales and more layoffs at the American factories, experts warn. Ford and Stellantis, the next top U.S. car producers in Mexico, also saw their shares fall after Trump’s announcement.

As many as 400,000 Americans could lose their jobs as a result of the tariffs, Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard told reporters today alongside President Claudia Sheinbaum. By Mexico’s estimates, Trump’s plan would raise the price of GM and Ford pickup trucks sold in the U.S. — 88 percent of which are made south of the border — by $3,000. If the tariffs are put in place, Mexico will respond with tariffs of its own, Sheinbaum said. Canada’s economy, which relies on $1 trillion cross-border trade with the U.S., would be devastated if Trump actually follows through, according to Canada’s CBC News.

“Whatever,” you say. “I won’t drive anywhere. I’ll hunker down and drink beer until 2029.” Nope, still not safe!

The company behind imported beers Corona and Negra Modelo, Constellation Brands, will likely see its costs surge 16 percent, according to one analysis. Economists widely agree that the tariffs would hurt everyday Americans. “The U.S. would be shooting itself in the foot,” Kenneth Smith Ramos, a former Mexican negotiator for the USMCA trade pact, told Reuters.

Ironically, the consequences look so grim, skepticism is rising about Trump’s real intentions. During the first Trump administration, he’d sometimes threaten tariffs over immigration disputes or other issues in an attempt to pressure countries to bend to his whim, even if actual policies didn’t pan out. That could be what’s happening here: In his announcement, Trump said he’ll enact the policy because of people “pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before.” Violent crime has, in fact, dropped in the U.S. since the peak of the pandemic.

Some observers insist he can’t be serious. Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, told CBC News: “Relax a little bit. He loves doing this.”

Crashing the U.S. economy to own the libs. Right on

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WHAT ELSE?

The Biden administration is moving forward with a plan to provide a $680 million weapons package for Israel, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted as part of Israel’s cease-fire deal with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, according to the Financial Times. The U.S. has given Israel about $18 billion in military assistance since last October.

Donald Trump’s team is considering direct talks with North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un in an attempt to lower the risk of armed conflict, Reuters reports. Kim has refused to talk with the U.S. at all in recent years, and Trump’s past diplomatic efforts didn’t bear results — even as he described his talks with Kim as falling “in love.” Normal head-of-state language.

Brain worm survivor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said he used to use heroin to manage his undiagnosed ADHD. “I was at the bottom of my class,” he said during a podcast in July, which has been resurfaced. “I started doing heroin, and I went to the top of my class. Suddenly I could sit still, and I could read and I could concentrate. I could listen to what people were saying.” Future Health and Human Services secretary, everybody!

Several of Trump’s cabinet picks have been targeted with bomb threats this week, the president-elect's transition team said.

Trump’s transition team reached an agreement with the Biden administration to coordinate the handoff. But it lacks several key details, including background and security checks for Trump’s transition team, and it doesn’t require the president-elect to sign an ethics pledge — which would make him promise to avoid conflicts of interest while in office. What could go wrong?

MAGA henchman Steve Bannon credited centibillionaire conspiracy theorist Elon Musk with Trump’s election win. “He came in with the money and the professionals. To be brutally frank, it’s the reason we won,” Bannon told Puck. Any word on when we can overturn Citizens United? No?

Trump nominated Jay Bhattacharya, a critic of the National Institutes of Health, to lead the National Institutes of Health. He’s been called out for his “fringe” views about Covid and was a prominent critic of Covid lockdowns. Trump’s abysmal cabinet continues to add disappointing new installments, like unnecessary sequels to “Hellraiser.”

Inflation rose slightly in October, showing that while inflation was dramatically reduced over the course of the Biden administration, it’s not entirely tamed. It’s a little reminder that Trump’s inflationary policies could spark a new round of price increases (ironically, the very thing Trump voters claim to hate).

Pod Save The World’s Ben Rhodes spoke with women's rights activist Malala Yousafzai and director Sahra Mani about their new documentary portraying the first-hand experiences of women in Afghanistan as the Taliban took control of the country in 2021 and immediately restricted women’s rights. Give it a listen.

Dan Pfeiffer had an exclusive sit-down with Jen O’Malley Dillon, David Plouffe, Quentin Fulks and Stephanie Cutter from the Harris campaign on yesterday’s Pod Save America. And shortly after, he followed up with a Q&A from our subscriber community. To hear Dan's takes & answers, check out the exclusive bonus episode on the Friends of the Pod Discord. When you subscribe to Friends of the Pod, you're also supporting Crooked's mission to build a progressive media ecosystem. Plus we're offering 25% off annual subscriptions right now. Head to crooked.com/friends or subscribe now from the Pod Save America feed on apple podcasts.

Three Americans who were held in China for years will soon return home to the United States, the White House announced.

A federal court restored an Oregon tribe’s right to hunt and fish in the area after decades of advocacy by tribal leaders.

A courtroom sketch artist captured disgraced former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani “losing it” during a court hearing this week, over the $148 million he’s being forced to give up in a defamation case. “I didn’t really feel sorry for him. I’m sure he’s managing OK,” the artist said. Perfect attitude. No notes.

Here’s a handy guide on “how not to poison your loved ones during your big holiday feast.” Get cookin’!

Today is our endlessly talented graphic designer Bernardo’s last day at Crooked. Bernardo, along with Zevvy, Sami and other members of the team, have been responsible for all the hilarious gifs at the top of the newsletter over the years. Bernardo’s personal GIF tally: 397. Wow! That’s a lotta GIFs! We’re so sad to see him go! But he’ll find a way to make the world a better place through his art wherever he goes.

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