Daily News Brief

November 26, 2024

Editor’s Note: There will be no Daily News Brief tomorrow through Friday, November 27–29, in observance of Thanksgiving.

Top of the Agenda

President-Elect Donald Trump will move to put tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico until they meet demands to halt illegal migration and the flow of drugs, he posted on his social media Truth Social yesterday. Trump threatened to impose tariffs of 25 percent on all products from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office that “will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens” stop crossing into the country. He said a plan for an additional 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods was in response to concerns over drug smuggling. Officials from all three countries issued statements defending their trade with the United States, while all three currencies fell in value against the dollar. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had a phone call with Trump after the posts, unnamed sources said. 

Trump’s proposal underscores the power of the president to set tariff policy in the United States. Still, he would face some constraints to enacting it, most notably the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. That deal “provides a framework of certainty for national and international investors,” Mexico’s finance ministry said in response to the tariff pledge. “No one will win a trade war or a tariff war,” a Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington posted on X. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Analysis

“Stiff new tariffs on imports from the United States’ three largest trading partners would significantly increase costs and disrupt business across all economies involved,” the Tax Foundation’s Erica York told the Financial Times. “Even the threat of tariffs can have a chilling effect.”

“The [Joe] Biden administration has embraced a range of economic tools: export controls, restrictions on inward and outbound foreign investment, tariffs, industrial policy, and antitrust enforcement. Many of these tools enjoy broad bipartisan support. If they are to form the basis of a new, enduring Washington consensus, however, the next president...will need to develop a more systematic approach to using them. That means understanding their limitations, developing principles to guide their use, and grappling fully with the trade-offs they involve,” CFR President Michael Froman writes for Foreign Affairs. 

“Trade threats issued by tweet have certain advantages for Trump, including not having to specify the statute that will be used to implement the tariffs,” CFR Senior Fellow Brad W. Setser posts on X. “There doesn't seem to be any realistic way to actually do the tariffs on Day 1 or Day 2.”

This Backgrounder looks at who uses tariffs and who pays for them.

Pacific Rim

The countries will allow their militaries to share food, fuel, and services, they agreed in a meeting in Rome. Italy is the eighth country with which Japan has struck this kind of agreement as Tokyo angles to ramp up defense connections. Italy increased the number of military assets sent to Japan for joint exercises this year, and the two countries are also working with the United Kingdom on developing a new fighter jet. (Japan Times)

CFR expert Matthew P. Goodman explains how Japan is positioning its security as it braces for Trump 2.0. 

China: Huawei launched a phone with a made-in-China operating system today, called Mate 70, that aims to give smartphone users an alternative to Google’s Android or Apple’s iOS. Chinese firms are girding for potential further U.S. export controls in advanced technologies such as chips. (Reuters, CNN)

South and Central Asia

Protesters calling for the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan clashed with security forces in Islamabad today; at least six people were reported dead in protest-related violence. The Islamabad High Court ruled the protest was unlawful and directed the government to take all available measures to maintain law and order. Khan has been in prison on a graft conviction since August 2023. (AP, Dawn)

Afghanistan: The Taliban arbitrarily detained journalists 256 times since taking over Afghanistan in 2021, the United Nations mission to the country said yesterday. The Taliban denied arresting that many journalists and said its detentions were lawful. (Reuters)

On The World Next Week podcast, CFR’s Robert McMahon and Carla Anne Robbins get into the state of press freedom around the world. 

Middle East and North Africa

The country’s security cabinet was due to convene today to weigh a proposal for a cease-fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, unnamed senior Israeli officials told multiple news outlets. White House spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday that a deal was “close” but “nothing is done until everything is done.” (Reuters, The Hill)

Iraq: The country’s population has grown to 45.4 million people, according to preliminary results from the first national census in almost four decades. An unofficial count in 2009 estimated it was home to 31.6 million people. Detailed results in the coming weeks will include information about the breakdown of different religious groups. (AP)

Sub-Saharan Africa

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a document yesterday naming the terms by which Rwandan troops will disengage from DRC territory, mediator Angola said. The details of the document were not immediately made public. Rwanda backs the M23 rebel group which has seized large swaths of eastern DRC since 2021. (AFP)

This timeline moves through the decades of conflict that has plagued eastern Congo. 

Mozambique: Judges on the country’s top court reported they have received death threats as they review the results of an election that is disputed by the country’s opposition. At least sixty-seven people have died in post-election protests, according to local observer group Plataforma Decide. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Russian forces launched a record 188 drones into Ukraine overnight, Ukraine’s military said. Many were shot down, but energy infrastructure in the Western city of Ternopil was damaged. (ABC)

In this YouTube Short, CFR expert Charles A. Kupchan discusses the mistake the United States could be making in the war in Ukraine. 

Germany: The ruling Social Democrats nominated chancellor Olaf Scholz as their candidate in snap elections set for February 23, after weeks of discussion within the party if he was right for the job given his faltering approval ratings. The center-right Christian Democratic Union is leading polls for the election. (Euronews)

Americas

Evaluation committees are due to review resumes in just over a month and reduce the field of applicants for 881 judgeships and nine Supreme Court seats. Then 1,793 names will be chosen at random from that group to appear on a voting ballot, according to a plan that is part of Mexico’s judicial overhaul. (AP)

Ecuador: A court on Monday convicted twenty out of twenty-one defendants, including judges, prosecutors, and police officers, in an organized crime and drug trafficking case. Those convicted received sentences between forty months and ten years. (Reuters)

Global

New HIV infections worldwide fell by 19 percent and deaths fell by 40 percent between 2010 and 2021, according to a study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) that was published in The Lancet. The lead study author praised “remarkable global progress” on the topic, but the study also noted the world is currently off track to meet UN targets for reduction in new cases by 2030, and that progress was uneven across global regions. (IHME, AFP)

For Think Global Health, Ashwin Vasan argues that retreating from the global HIV fight puts U.S. health at risk. 

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