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Defending the “Guardrails” Against Catastrophe

The risk of nuclear conflict is higher than at any point since the end of the Cold War, and it appears to be growing. Major states are engaged in a qualitative arms race. At the same time the rules, norms, and treaties protecting us from the world’s most dangerous weapons, and against unconstrained nuclear buildups and the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states, are under increasing stress.

Just last week, after the White House authorized the use of U.S.-supplied longer-range missiles to strike sites in Russia launching attacks on Ukraine, the Kremlin unveiled a revised nuclear weapons employment policy that lowers the threshold for nuclear use.

As I told The Washington Post, “we are back in a new and much more uncertain, dangerous phase of the war, in which Putin appears to believe he needs to escalate.”

Also last week, the IAEA Board of Governors voted to censure Iran for its failure to more fully cooperate with the agency to resolve concerns about Iran’s efforts to expand its capacity to produce bomb-grade nuclear material, which have accelerated since Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran deal during his first term.

Shortly after the IAEA vote, Iran said it was open to talks with Washington to reduce tensions, but its deputy foreign minister also threatened that Iran would withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty if the United States or other members of the UN Security Council snap-back international sanctions by October 2025, as some advisors for the second Trump administration propose.

How exactly the second Trump administration and the Congress will seek to avoid escalation over Russia’s war on Ukraine, and deal with other pressing nuclear weapons-related challenges is not yet clear.

What is clear is that we must seek to reinforce the guardrails against nuclear catastrophe by developing common sense solutions and building broader bipartisan and global support for effective action.

Our collective actions today, as citizens, organizations, and government leaders, to move the world back from the nuclear brink will affect international peace and security for years to come.

Because ACA's work depends on the support of people like you, please consider making a generous end-of-the-year contribution of, $1,000, $500, $250, $75 or an amount that works for you.

In 2025, our hard working and dedicated staff of 13, along with our high-level Board will be at the forefront of efforts to:

• Head off a new arms race and advance nuclear disarmament diplomacy, with a focus on building support for an interim deal to maintain the basic limits of the last remaining U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreement, New START, after it expires less than 450 days from now.
• Counter proposals to expand the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal to “enhance” deterrence vis-a-vis Russia and China, a move that would be unnecessary, unaffordable, and counterproductive.
• Respond to any threats of nuclear use by continuing to pressure governments and thought leaders to condemn nuclear threats and to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons in U.S. military policy.
• Block proposals that might emerge from the Trump administration to resume U.S. nuclear testing, which is technically unnecessary, would increase tensions, and set off a dangerous orgy of nuclear testing by other nuclear powers.
• Champion effective diplomatic options to keep Iran's sensitive nuclear program in check. Iran’s nuclear knowledge cannot be bombed away, and sanctions alone will not force Tehran to change course.
  

ACA is an independent, nonpartisan, member-supported organization and, over our five decades of work, we’ve proposed and advanced solutions that have enhanced our safety and security during difficult times and through Republican and Democratic administrations. Although we don’t have all the answers for the uncertain times that lie ahead, our small but extraordinarily dedicated and effective team will do the best we can to help steer a safer course. Please stay tuned, stay engaged, and tell us what you think we can do to improve our work.

Onward,

Daryl G. Kimball,
Executive Director

Members of Congress Speak Out on the Nuclear Danger 

On Nov. 13, the U.S. House of Representatives held a special order hour for speeches on nuclear weapons, organized by Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.). Nine members of the House including McGovern spoke on a range of topics associated with nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, and disarmament.

The initiative was coordinated through the bicameral Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group, which was formed in 2021. Senior ACA staff provide expert advice and administrative support for the group.

“I rise today to focus on one of the most serious issues of our time: the increasing threat of nuclear weapons. Today we face the challenge that the only remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, expires in February 2026,” McGovern said. “The world stands at the brink of a nuclear arms race with no guardrails or no limits,” he warned.

The nine other members of the House who took the floor were Bill Foster (Ill.) John Garamendi (Calif.), Don Beyer, Jr. (Va.), Dina Titus (Nev.), Chellie Pingree (Maine), Rashida Tlaib (Mich), Delia Ramirez (Ill.), and Mark DeSaulnier (Calif.). 

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AI and Nuclear Use: A Human “In the Loop” Is Necessary But Insufficient

Earlier this month, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping met at the APEC Summit in Peru where they issued a joint statement affirming , “The need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.” The two leaders also stressed “the need to consider carefully the potential risks and develop AI technology in the military field in a prudent and responsible manner.”

However, the two sides did not discuss how to implement such a policy or implement safeguards to ensure it is not violated.

Under the Biden administration, the United States and its allies have promoted the adoption of voluntary guidelines against the misuse of AI in accordance with its Political Declaration on the Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy. This initiative includes a recommendation for the presence of humans “in the loop” for all nuclear decision-making, mirroring language contained in the Biden Administration’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. Congress is expected to endorse such a policy in the National Defense Authorization Act.

ACA Senior Fellow Michael Klare and Senior Analyst Xiaodon Liang write in a new ACA Issue Brief “Beyond a Human “In the Loop”: Strategic Stability and Artificial Intelligence,“ such a policy, while essential, is not sufficient to guard against the risk posed by the introduction of artificial intelligence into nuclear command and control systems.

In 2025, ACA will work with the incoming Congress to press the Pentagon to provide more detail on how the “human in the loop” concept would be implemented. We will also underscore that retaining human control over all decisions involving nuclear weapons requires the insertion of automated “tripwires” in advanced command-and-control systems to disallow escalatory dynamics, especially those that could lead to nuclear use or miscalculation. 

ACA Joins Effort to Push for RECA Reauthorization 

The Arms Control Association joined a diverse coalition of advocates and stakeholders on a joint letter to Congress urging action in the lame-duck session to reauthorize the law compensating Americans exposed to nuclear radiation by the federal government, the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA).

The bill, which passed the Senate by a 2-1 bipartisan margin in March, has been denied a floor vote in the House by the Speaker.

For more on the case for the legislation, see: “Congress Must Expand Support for Downwinders” in the October issue of Arms Control Today. 

OPCW Finds Illegal Use of Toxic Chemicals in Ukraine

On November 18, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) announced the results of a Technical Assistance Visit (TAV) in Ukraine confirmed the use of toxic chemicals, a riot control agent, as a weapon. For more background, see the news report in the September issue of Arms Control Today.

In May, ACA and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Coalition called on CWC states parties to condemn violations of the treaty and to support an investigation of alleged Russian use of chemical weapons in its war on Ukraine.

This week, ACA’s CWC Coalition coordinator Mina Rozei and Coalition chair Paul Walker are at The Hague to help facilitate expert input from civil society at the annual meeting of CWC states-parties. For more information on this event, see the CWC Coalition website.

ACA and U.S. Campaign to Ban Landmines Condemn U.S. Transfers

On November 19, The Washington Post reported that the Biden administration intends to provide antipersonnel landmines to Ukraine, breaking with its June 2022 policy that the United States would, “Not assist, encourage, or induce anyone, outside of the context of the Korean Peninsula, to engage in any activity that would be prohibited by the Ottawa Convention" also known as 1997 Mine Ban Treaty.

In a joint statement, and at a later White House meeting on the issues attended by executive director Daryl Kimball, ACA and U.S. Campaign to Ban Landmines strongly condemned any use and transfer of internationally-banned antipersonnel landmines to any country or actor. ACA is a member of the steering committee of the Campaign.

The move, which follows the Biden administration’s decision to transfer internationally-banned cluster munitions to Ukraine, represents another violation of the rules-based international order by the Biden administration in its effort to support the defense of Ukraine. 

ACA Chair Tom Countryman Addresses Belgrade Security Conference

ACA In The News

• “Russia debuts new missile in Ukraine strike as Putin threatens West,” The Washington Post, Nov. 21. Cites comments by ACA’s Daryl Kimball.
• “What is the intercontinental ballistic missile Ukraine says Russia fired?” Reuters, Nov. 21. Cites ACA’s online resources on global missile arsenals.
• “Putin’s Decision to Lower Threshold for Nuclear Use Is Irresponsible and Dangerous,” ACA Press Statement, Nov. 19.
• “U.S. Must Be Prepared to Expand Nuclear-Weapons Force, Biden Officials Say. Decision on whether to do so will be left to President-elect Donald Trump,” The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 15. Cites remarks by senior White House official at ACA’s June 2 Annual Meeting.
• “Iran faces fresh censure over lack of cooperation at UN nuclear meeting,” Agence France Press and The Times of Israel, Nov. 19. IAEA Director-General “Grossi’s visit to Tehran was… too little and too late to stave off a censure from the board,” His visit was “a missed opportunity for Iranian President Pezeshkian to demonstrate that he is serious about de-escalation,” ACA’s Kelsey Davenport said.
• “Advocates call on Congress to reauthorize radiation compensation law in lame-duck session,” in The Hill, Nov. 13, cites the letter endorsed by ACA and 45, mainly local and state, organizations.
• “Trump, Putin could agree on limits of nuclear warheads,” ACA’s Daryl Kimball tells Russia’s TASS news agency in an interview, Nov. 11. “Maintaining caps on strategic nuclear arsenals, even by way of an informal agreement between Trump and Putin, would serve U.S. and global interests,” he says.
• “Explainer: Why nuclear weapons will be on Trump's agenda,” Reuters, Nov. 8. Cites ACA estimates of the cost of the U.S. nuclear weapons modernization program.
• “What to expect from Trump’s second term,” ACA’s Daryl Kimball and other nuclear experts react to the election results in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nov. 7.

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