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SUNDAY SCIENCE: HUGE DEAL STRUCK BUT IS IT ENOUGH? 5 TAKEAWAYS FROM A
DRAMATIC COP29  
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Matt McGrath
November 24, 2024
BBC [[link removed]]

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_ At a time of geopolitical uncertainty and distraction, keeping
countries united on climate should be critical. The big fight over
money re-opened old divisions between rich and poor, with an anger and
bitterness not seen in years. _

Activists were more confrontational at this COP than others, Reuters

 

COP29 is over, with developing countries complaining that the $300bn
(about £240bn) a year in climate finance they will receive by 2035 is
a "paltry sum".

Many of the rich country voices at the UN's climate conference were
amazed that developing nations were unhappy with what on the surface
seems a huge settlement. It is an improvement - on the current
contribution of $100bn (£79.8bn) a year.

However, the developing world, which had pushed for more, had many
genuine issues with the final sum.

A massive deal, but bitter divisions remain

There were complaints it simply was not enough and that it was a
mixture of grants and loans. And countries were deeply annoyed by the
way the wealthy waited until the last minute to reveal their hand.

“It's a paltry sum," India's delegate Chandni Raina told other
delegates, after the deal had been gavelled through.

"This document is little more than an optical illusion. This, in our
opinion, will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face."

Ultimately, the developing world was compelled to accept it, with many
rich countries pointing to next year's arrival of President Donald
Trump, a known climate sceptic, and arguing that they would not get a
better deal.

But this package is also being criticised as short-sighted from the
richer world’s perspective.

The argument runs that if you want to keep the world safe from rising
temperatures, then wealthier nations need to help emerging economies
cut their emissions, because that is where 75% of the growth in
emissions has occurred in the past decade.

New national plans are due to be published next spring to outline how
every country will limit their planet warming gases over the next 10
years.

A more generous cash settlement at COP29 would undoubtedly have had a
positive knock-on effect on those efforts.

And at a time of geopolitical uncertainty and distraction, keeping
countries united on climate should be critical. The big fight over
money re-opened old divisions between rich and poor, with an anger and
bitterness I have not seen in years.

A family displaced after heavy rains in India, whose delegate argued
the deal was not enough. Reuters

COP itself is on the ropes

Shepherding 200 countries to an intricate deal on climate finance was
always going to be a tough task. But for hosts Azerbaijan, a country
with no real history of involvement in the COP process, it proved to
be almost beyond them.

The country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, did not help matters
by describing oil and gas as a "gift from God"
[[link removed]]. His blunt attacks
- accusing "Western fake news media", charities and politicians of
"spreading disinformation" - did not improve matters.

Azerbaijan follows Egypt and the United Arab Emirates as the third
authoritarian state in a row to host COP, raising concerns about how
host countries are selected.

Azerbaijan, like the UAE, has an economy which is built on oil and gas
exports, which seems at odds with a process that is meant to be
helping the world transition away from coal, oil and gas.

Privately, many senior negotiators spoke of their frustration with
what some termed the worst COP in a decade. Half-way through the
meeting, several senior climate leaders wrote a public letter saying
COP was not fit for purpose
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reform.

Activists from different groups and communities joined the summit
demanding that richer countries "pay up"

The quiet ascent of China

With the role of the US in future climate talks in doubt because of
Trump, attention shifted to who might become the real climate leader
in the expected absence of the US over the next four years.

The natural successor is China.

The world’s largest carbon emitter was largely silent at this year's
COP, only showing its hand to give details for the first time on the
amount of climate finance it gives to developing countries.

China is still defined by the United Nations as a "developing"
country, meaning it has no formal obligation to cut greenhouse gas
emissions or provide financial help to poorer countries.

However, China has agreed to a formula in the finance deal that would
allow its contributions to be counted in the overall fund for
climate-vulnerable countries, on a voluntary basis.

All in all, a move that is being seen as very deft and effective.

“China is becoming more transparent about its financial support to
global south countries,” said Li Shuo, from the Asia Society Policy
Institute.

“This should propel the country to play a larger role in the
future."

China's Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment Zhao Yingmin attended
COP29. Reuters

'Trump-proofing' the climate

Although he was not there, Trump’s presence was felt across COP.

One common element among the negotiators in Baku was the need to
ensure that a second Trump administration would not upend years of
careful climate negotiations.

So it was no surprise to see that richer nations wanted to commit to
raising funding by 2035. They believe putting that date will allow the
US to contribute again once Trump has left office.

Similarly, the drive to increase the contributor base was done with
Trump in mind.

Bringing China to the table, even in a voluntary capacity, will be
used to show that it is worth engaging in international forums like
COP.

"No-one thinks Trump in the White House will be anything but damaging
to the multilateral climate regime," said Prof Michael Jacobs,
visiting senior fellow at the think tank ODI Global.

"But this agreement was about trying to limit the damage as much as
possible.”

Campaigners become more vocal

One very noticeable trend at COP29 was the sometimes more aggressive
stance taken by many environmental NGOs and campaigners.

I witnessed it myself when US climate envoy John Podesta was chased
out a meeting area with chants of “shame” ringing in his ears.

Many developing countries rely on these NGOs for support in dealing
with complex events like COP.

During the talks, there was a strong push from many of these
campaigners for an outright rejection of almost any deal.

Similarly, in the final plenary when all countries accepted the
finance text, there were brash cheers when speakers from several
nations spoke out against the agreement, after the gavelling.

Will confrontational activism and fraught debate become the new norm
at a diplomatic climate conference?

We will have to wait for the next COP to see.

Activists said the last-minute finance deal was inadequate

_MATT MCGRATH is environment correspondent for BBC News. He has
covered climate change and environment for the BBC since 2006 and has
reported on some of the major events in that period, from the
disappointment of Copenhagen in 2009 to the success of Paris in 2015
to the drama in Glasgow in 2021._

_The BBC is the world’s leading public service broadcaster
We’re impartial and independent, and every day we create
distinctive, world-class programmes and content which inform, educate
and entertain millions of people in the UK and around the world._

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November 23, 2023

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* COP29
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