Hi John,

Welcome back to On the Grid, Third Way’s bi-weekly newsletter.

With Donald Trump winning both the popular and electoral vote and the GOP securing a governing trifecta in 2025, there’s plenty to unpack. Let’s hone in on how this impacts clean energy deployment. Thanks for joining us!

P.S. If you want Third Way’s take on how we got here, check out Third Way President Jon Cowan’s piece in The xxxxxx.

For the past 15 years, our team has worked to bridge divides and make real progress on clean energy–regardless of which political party controlled Congress or the White House. It is critical for America’s economy and national security that the country continues to scale existing clean energy technologies and commercialize emerging technologies as rapidly as possible.

The Path Forward: Much of the action in 2025 will come from Congress. Senate Republicans will need at least seven Democratic votes to pass most legislation, and the House GOP’s razor-thin majority means they can’t afford to alienate moderate members who back continued funding for clean energy projects. Even under the partisan reconciliation pathway, significant cuts to clean energy programs may not be feasible. The nomination of Chris Wright as Secretary of Energy also creates opportunity. His track record of investing in emerging clean energy technologies like advanced nuclear and geothermal gives us reason to hope he’ll prioritize what’s best for the broader energy economy. You can read Senior Vice President for Climate and Energy, Josh Freed’s full take on Wright's nomination here. (And if you’re also joining Bluesky–give us a follow!)

Where Progress Is Possible: There are real opportunities in 2025 to advance critical clean energy priorities while defending existing funding. Here are some key areas:

• Accelerating the development, financing, and scaling of key clean firm energy, including large lightwater and advanced nuclear, enhanced geothermal, carbon management, and hydrogen.
• Smart permitting and planning reform, particularly for more transmission, and other clean energy projects to be built more quickly.
• Expanding financing for both domestic clean energy projects, exporting American technologies, and investing in clean energy projects in allied countries.
• Strengthening opportunities for transatlantic coordination on key issues, including nuclear development, and competing with China on clean energy, including supply chains, and manufacturing. There’s also a very slim prospect for a carbon border adjustment.

As much as Donald Trump focused on energy during the campaign, it was centered on increasing domestic oil and gas production in the US. The actual impact of the election on oil and gas, however, may not be nearly as straightforward. We think this is an important reality check to keep everyone grounded when the inevitable political hyperbole is released from groups on both the Right and Left.

What is the 2025 Outlook for Oil and Gas? While Trump promised to dramatically boost US oil and gas production, market conditions suggest this won’t be straightforward. US oil production is already at record highs, and a global surplus is putting downward pressure on prices. Fracking operations could increase production if they see sustained higher prices, but much depends on broader economic factors like OPEC+ decisions and global demand trends.

What About International Demand for LNG? The global market for LNG remains dynamic. Rising international demand from electricity generation and industrial uses like chemical production, particularly from regions eager to strengthen ties with the Trump Administration, could create potential price pressures. However, volatility persists, and policy decisions, such as lifting the pause on new export terminals, could significantly reshape the market landscape.

What We’re Doing: Volatility in energy markets underscores the need for diverse, reliable, and affordable power solutions. That’s why we’re focused on working with large electricity end-users–manufacturers and data centers–to champion clean firm power as a strategy to offset oil and gas price pressures. Technologies like advanced nuclear and geothermal provide dependable energy and protects against price swings.

Clean energy and climate were not top priorities for voters this cycle. Nonetheless, this election season holds a warning for clean energy advocates: even perceived support for banning fracking, the Green New Deal, or aggressive policies promoting electric vehicles were deeply unpopular. These were certainly not decisive issues, but all three positions–banning fracking, the Green New Deal, and promoting electric vehicles–were exploited to depict Democratic candidates as pushing an “extreme” agenda that was out of touch with most voters’ concerns about inflation and the high cost of living.

The candidates that rebutted these attacks successfully linked clean energy with local economic opportunities. Take soon-to-be-Senator Elissa Slotkin from Michigan, who emphasized the connection between support for clean energy and strong domestic manufacturing. That message reflects the findings of our public opinion research in Michigan, which shows that the most persuasive clean energy communications highlight the economic benefits of clean technologies.

What We’re Doing: Next year, we’re narrowing the focus of our public opinion work to focus on non-college-educated men–a demographic that’s more likely to see clean energy as harmful to the economy and at odds with their personal goals. Closing this gap and understanding what policies and language resonate with people who are dubious of the economic costs and benefits of clean energy will be critically important to maintaining the momentum we’ve built over the past decade.

• Matthew Zeitlin, in Heatmap, outlines what we can expect from a second Trump Administration, highlighting how rising electricity demand and policy shifts stand to threaten progress we’ve made cutting emissions.
• Dino Grandoni, Evan Halper, and Maxine Joselow, in The Washington Post, breakdown changes we can expect in clean energy and environmental policy under the Trump Administration.
• Ezra Klein, on the Ezra Klein Show, chats with Patrick Ruffini, pollster and founding partner at Echelon Insights, about the outcome of the 2024 election and the political realignment reflected in the results.​​​​​​