The Center for Jobs and the Economy has released our initial analysis of the Unemployment Insurance Claims for the week of May 9. For additional information and data about the California economy visit centerforjobs.org/ca.

Although continuing to ease from levels in the prior 6 weeks, initial Unemployment Insurance claims remained elevated during the week of May 9 as the ability to keep workers employed erodes during the extended shutdowns.  Nationally, actual claims (not seasonally adjusted (NSA)) were at 2,614,093, while the seasonally adjusted (SA) level used for trend analysis was 2,981,000.  California had the 4th highest number of initial claims at 214,028 (NSA).  California’s initial claim rate as a percentage of the labor force (March numbers) was 1.1%, the 28th highest among the states. 

The weekly reports now also incorporate data on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claims, which provide benefits for self-employed, business owners, and independent contractors.  Reflecting the importance of self-employment in California’s jobs mix, California had just under one-quarter of the national PUA claims for the two weeks ending May 9.

Continuing claims continue to show extreme variability, but additional information indicates the weekly Department of Labor data point for California currently does not accurately reflect the number of workers currently receiving unemployment insurance (i.e., the number of claims approved for workers still unemployed).  Instead, the California data in the recent weekly reports is the total additional weeks of benefits requested by workers during the prior week.  Consequently, the California number is not useful for assessing the current level of unemployment as was done in prior weeks.

However, combining the initial claims and PUA data over the past 8 weeks shows claims equal to 24% of the labor force, an indication of the full impact of the current emergency measures and the scale of the broad-based jobs recovery required to bring the state’s economy and public revenue base back to some level of normal.  The April unemployment rate scheduled for release next Friday will be lower than this level, as that number is estimated based on surveys done the week of April 12 adjusted by factors including the level of UI claims.  The UI numbers also only reflect workers who have been laid off, and do not address workers finding a job after they filed.  The resulting net effect will be shown in the April employment data scheduled to be released for the state on May 22.