Throughout civilization, life on Earth has thrived in an environmental niche characterized by median temperatures between 11 and 15 degrees Celsius (52 to 59 degrees Fahrenheit), a key factor in the production of crops and livestock that sustain human life. However, a new National Academy of Sciences study reveals that if the planet continues to warm at current rates, up to 3 billion people will be living in regions inhospitable to human life by 2070.

Based on study estimates, in just 50 years 19 percent of the planet could experience an average temperature of 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit), similar to that of the Sahara Desert. Looking at the current population distribution, this would include more than 1 billion people in India, 500 million in Nigeria, and 100 million in the Niger and Sudan region. Ultimately, for every 1 degree Celsius of global average warming, 1 billion people will have to either adapt or migrate.

While these predictions are based on future temperature estimates, the increased frequency of climate-linked natural disasters is already causing large-scale migration, especially in South Asia. In 2019, natural disasters triggered the internal displacement of 24.9 million people around the world, three times the number caused by conflict and violence. India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines had the highest numbers, each experiencing more than 4 million climate-related displacements.

In this region, monsoon rains and tropical storms have become more frequent and more intense, causing unprecedented levels of flooding and damage. Furthermore, with sea levels rising, the resulting salinization of coastal land harms crop production for multiple seasons, devastating the livelihoods of farmers. India is considered by many scientists to be the country at highest risk, with 250 million people living along the coastline—most dependent on the sea for their livelihood.

While climate migration is currently categorized by mostly internal displacement and disproportionately affects developing nations, it will increasingly touch all parts of the globe as temperatures increase and weather patterns get more severe. According to Climate Central, by 2050, seas could rise to levels that at high tide would erase global cities such as Miami, Amsterdam, Bangkok, Shanghai, and Mumbai. Furthermore, drought-fueled wildfires similar to those that raged in California and Australia recently are set to become more frequent.

While the outlook appears grim, there is still time to prevent some of the worst-case scenarios. In order to do so, it will take unprecedented contingency planning by governments and international institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how systems can be pushed to near collapse when governments are not prepared for crisis. Will the world learn from this pandemic? The coming decade will tell.

Interested in learning more about climate migration? We are excited to announce we will be launching our Climate Migration Special Issue later this month. So please stay tuned!

Best regards,

Editor, Migration Information Source