Dear Friends --

It's been two weeks since the historic election of 2024. Some races are still too-close to call, and statisticians will need another few weeks to collect, clean, and analyze election data before we can confidently substantiate some of the hot takes pundits have offered.

That said, it's clear that a (slim) majority of American voters have expressed dissatisfaction with current conditions, and voted for change. High housing costs are a major component of that dissatisfaction.

California YIMBY does not endorse in federal races, but I admit to loving Vice President Kamala Harris' YIMBY arc, and am concerned about the direction of federal policy and governance across many dimensions, including housing. At the risk of falling for the pundit's fallacy, whereby pundits interpret election results as confirming their pre-existing beliefs, it's clear (to me) that our lack of homebuilding exacerbated the anti-incumbent national mood.

Incumbents of the right, left, and center have been losing races across wealthy democracies this year, largely because of voter dissatisfaction over inflation. Housing is the biggest expense for most families, and early analyses show that metro areas with the highest cost-of-living saw the biggest anti-incumbent swings towards Donald Trump.

At the state level, four of the five worst-performing states for Democrats, compared to 2020, are California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts – all deep "blue" states where sky-high housing costs drive cost-of-living challenges.

Unaffordable housing defines California for many voters. As our Senior Director of Legislation and Research, Nolan Gray, recently wrote:

For the first time in recent memory, housing costs emerged as a major presidential election issue. (Experts agree that it's the last major driver of inflation.) And while Harris promised to oversee the construction of 3 million homes over her term, that wasn't enough to shake the California stigma.

Voters seem to understand that prominent red states like Texas build lots of housing, whereas prominent blue states like California do not. The consequence: Americans are voting with their feet, and moving away from high-cost blue states to lower-cost red states, taking their electoral votes (and Congressional seats) with them. It's no wonder that in an election where voters said high-prices were their number one concern, so many expressed skepticism of a California Democrat's ability to deliver.

The Evidence in Down-Ballot Races

But there is also good news in this election. YIMBY candidates did well at the state and local level across California.

From north to south, YIMBY slates took seats at city halls, county boards of supervisors, and in the Legislature. From Eureka to San Diego, San Francisco to Santa Monica, and Berkeley to Bell Gardens, voters sent a clear message on housing: It's time to build.

• In Eureka, a prominent political donor funded an effort to block the city's plans to build affordable housing on publicly-owned downtown parking lots. His attempt, Measure F, lost 70 - 30.

• In Santa Monica, four candidates ran as part of a pro-housing slate; all four won, knocking off two anti-housing incumbents. The results give Santa Monica an overwhelmingly pro-housing majority, as the victors join pro-housing incumbents on the Council.

• Pro-housing candidates supported by California YIMBY and our allies also won in the East Bay, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, West Hollywood, Gilroy, Bell Gardens, South San Francisco, Petaluma, and El Cerrito.

At the state level, pro-housing, California YIMBY-endorsed candidates ran the tables:

*Incumbent
**Moved from Assembly to Senate

What this means: We will enter the 2025 - 2026 California legislative session with even more pro-housing votes, as new pro-housing legislators partner with our returning YIMBY champions.

And while we're disappointed in the failure of Proposition 5, which would have made it easier to raise funds for affordable and social housing, we take some solace in the success of voter initiatives like Measure A in Los Angeles, which will provide new revenue to address homelessness in California’s largest city.

We invite all of our supporters and members to join us in doubling-down on our commitment to passing transformative state housing policy. Our legislative and policy teams are hard at work preparing for a massive 2025, and we'll need your help!

"Now, more than ever" is cliched, but some cliches are true. Now, more than ever, California needs to unleash a building boom, and welcome anyone who wants to make a home here. In spite of any headwinds we may face, our collective efforts can still make California more affordable, sustainable, vibrant, and prosperous for everyone.

Thanks as always for your support and allyship. We're in this with you.

Brian

Brian Hanlon
Co-Founder and CEO
California YIMBY

P.S.: As I was finishing work on this letter, Jerusalem Demsas published this highly relevant piece on the perils of forced housing scarcity. Jerusalem, as always, nailed it.