Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Nov. 19, 2024
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Keeping a Potential U.S.-China Conflict Under the Nuclear Threshold
Rising fears that China could invade Taiwan, along with Beijing's ongoing nuclear buildup, underscore the perilous stakes of a potential U.S.-China conflict. Any such clash would be distinct from past U.S. wars against regional powers that lacked nuclear weapons.
New RAND research examines this dire challenge, considering the role of U.S. joint long-range strike in a hypothetical conflict over Taiwan. If Washington is fully committed to fighting and winning a war with China, the researchers write, then it must be prepared for nuclear escalation and should place more emphasis on managing these risks. They also identify the single most influential factor under U.S. military control for managing escalation: target selection.
The United States could decrease the risk of escalation in several ways. For example, U.S. leaders can manage China's perceptions of long-range strike before a conflict even occurs. They can also incorporate considerations of escalation risk into the acquisition process, especially for weapon systems that are likely to appear highly escalatory to China. And they can avoid making U.S. long-range strike capabilities an attractive target for a limited nuclear strike by Beijing.
As Washington works to prevent a future war with China from ever occurring in the first place, these takeaways may help U.S. military strategists and planners as they consider the possibility that it nonetheless could. If that happens, then the task will be how to succeed without triggering catastrophic escalation.
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Climate Change, Health, and Drug Demand: Q&A with RAND's Mahshid Abir
RAND's Mahshid Abir is a practicing emergency physician in southern Michigan. When a heat wave hit the region this past summer, she saw the impacts on her patients. Older people with diabetes or heart disease became overheated and dehydrated, worsening their conditions. Abir knew this was a sign of a bigger problem: how the effects of climate change are negatively affecting our health. In fact, her latest RAND study finds that the prevalence of four deadly illnesses--cardiovascular disease, asthma, Alzheimer's, and end-stage renal disease--increases under most climate change scenarios. Mortality related to these diseases also rises and, for the most part, so does demand for the drugs used to treat them.
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How Europe Can Help Ukraine
If U.S. military aid to Ukraine were to be cut back, then what might Europe do to fill the gap? RAND's Michael Bohnert offers a list of weapons Europe could provide now, before it's too late. To start, Ukraine needs air defense interceptors and long-range strike missiles. Europe can also provide financial or production support for Ukrainian electronic systems that counter Russian drones. Finally, Kyiv needs basic military equipment, including armored vehicles, ammunition, medical kits, and body armor. If Europe fails to provide this type of support, Bohnert says, then Russia might succeed in capturing Ukraine--and continue to annex and terrorize its neighbors.
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** RAND Recommends
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- In case you missed it, we launched our redesigned website last week. rand.org now has a fresh look and feel, improved functionality, and enhanced performance.
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- RAND's Bruce Bennett speaks with NBC News about how communication challenges and inexperience could hamper North Korean troops sent to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine.
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- In a recent webinar, RAND experts discuss their research on teaching algebra in U.S. schools. The findings reveal insights about inequities that compromise mathematics learning among students in higher-poverty schools.
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** Events
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Policy Lab: How AI Exacerbates Bias and Inequity
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 (Online)
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Policy Lab: AI and the Future of Work
Wednesday, December 11, 2024 (Online)
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** Apply for RAND's Summer Associate Program
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Are you a graduate student? Do you want to help tackle the world's toughest policy problems? Applications for our Summer Associate Program are now open. Apply by December 2nd for an opportunity to spend summer 2025 at RAND.
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