Revenge of the “fly-over” states

Peter Ohtaki — November 17, 2024

TV media pundits and Democrats are in overdrive to explain the Trump and Republican wins in the Senate and House. Over 2/3rds of voters said the country is going in the wrong direction, a death knell for the incumbent party. But why?

Bernie Sanders tweeted “It should come as no surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them”
Chris Cuomo said on NewsNation “Democrats need to focus less on who is woke, and more on who is broke!”

The interior of the country has been passed over by global trade-created affluence of the Coasts

I’ve said this since the summer, it came down to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (previous blog). The Rust Belt lost manufacturing jobs for over 25 years as both parties advocated free global trade. Real income and property values haven’t changed much as a consequence. I’ve seen it every July in western Michigan in my in-laws small town. Small towns nationwide have lost jobs and are angry. It led to the Tea Party over bailouts to Wall Street in 2009. Trump listened in 2016 & MAGA capitalized on that anger. And now it’s grown to half of the country between the coasts - derisively called the “fly-over states”.

Inflation-adjusted real income in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania has lagged California, Massachusetts and New York since 1984.

It’s inflation, stupid (previous blog)

Pollster Frank Luntz observed people living paycheck-to-paycheck voted overwhelmingly for Trump and the Republicans. A recent CNBC survey showed 65% of Americans now live paycheck-to-paycheck. Groceries, gas, utilities, insurance, housing, medical, tuition, travel – all have jumped at least 20% since the pandemic. Inflation has been harder on these areas of the country, and we’re seeing small businesses like restaurants and retailers fail nationwide. So in addition to the Swing States, Trump won the popular vote nationwide, and significantly higher % in blue states such as 46.3% in New Jersey and 44.2% in New York than in 2020.

It’s not education

CNN and MSNBC talk about an “education gap” where college-educated voters voted for Harris, implying derisively working class Americans without a college degree aren’t informed or educated. .People in these states watch the same news channels, and are just as informed and concerned as we are on the Coasts.

It’s a cultural rejection

It’s not white nationalism- these are hard working church-going compassionate Americans fed up with Coastal elites, including Hollywood celebrities, telling them what’s politically correct (DEI), who’s oppressed or an oppressor (previous blog), or what to drive (EVs). They’re not opposed to immigration but are worried about losing the service jobs that remain so want to see the border controlled.

Let me know what you think

What I can’t explain is why Harris received 8 million fewer votes (73.8 MM) than Biden in 2020 (81.3 MM). Trump’s 76.4 million votes is 2.2 MM higher than 2020. According to AP, turnout dropped in non-competitive states relative to 2020, such as 500k fewer votes in Illinois and 300K fewer in Ohio, while swing state turnout stayed as high.