May 15, 2020
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Another 2.9 million file for initial jobless claims, but has the bleeding finally stopped as the economy begins reopening?
Another 2.9
million Americans filed for initial unemployment in the week ending May 9, and
about 22.8 million were taking advantage of unemployment benefits the week
ending May 2 during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Department of
Labor. This means that a great many are remaining on unemployment insurance,
but also some who are not, perhaps owing to payroll protection coming through
for many employers who have gotten their small business lending squared away,
but also the economy beginning to reopen in many states. Thus even though more
than 32 million people have filed for unemployment initially over past month
and a half, the number in the program presently could be more near the 23
million to 25 million level. Still mind-bogglingly high, but perhaps finally
plateauing. The good news is that the job losses, at least for now, appear to
be nearing their plateau. Readers will recall that it can take a really long
time to hit the labor market bottom in recessions, on average 11 months but
sometimes as high as 25 months like in the financial crisis and Great
Recession. Although it is too early to tell, there are signs that this
recession could hit its labor market bottom more rapidly than the average.
We’ll have more information when the May monthly unemployment report is
released the first week of June. Looking forward, that could mean that the
number of jobs lost could already be falling by the time fall rolls around.
Video: State of Oklahoma working to rebuild after COVID-19 shutdown, and fast
The Secretary
of Workforce and Commerce in Oklahoma says his state has kept many of its
businesses going. But it has taken a major hit during the COVID-19 shutdown.
Now, the land of the Sooners just wants to get back to greatness.
Pelosi’s Zeroes Act is dangerous for America
“Speaker
Nancy Pelosi’s latest spending binge should rightfully called the Zeroes Act,
as it adds not one, not two, but three more trillion dollars to the national
debt in a wayward attempt to permanently change the U.S. economy to her
socialist vision. The media has been
awash in reports of employers whose workers have either refused or been upset
that their jobs have been restored due to the federal government mistake of
paying people more to be unemployed than employed. Pelosi’s assault on America’s economy not
only fails to fix this roadblock to reopening, but extends it in an obvious
political ploy to maintain double digit unemployment through the November
election. But while the Pelosi Zeroes Act is chock full of union pension
bailouts and other fiscal absurdities, its real crime is that it borrows
another $3 trillion from the Chinese and other financiers who seek to own
America. Pelosi’s bill will push the
national debt above the $30 trillion mark at a time when the entire world
economy is likely to shrink to just above $60 trillion. This is not sustainable. During the Obama
presidency a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff called our national
debt the number one threat to our national security and many scoffed. Now, any
thinking person has to agree with that assessment. The Pelosi Zeroes Act is not only
irresponsible, it is downright dangerous and should be rejected.”
Another 2.9 million file for initial jobless claims, but has the bleeding finally stopped as the economy begins reopening?
By Robert Romano
Another 2.9 million Americans filed for initial unemployment in the week ending May 9, and about 22.8 million were taking advantage of unemployment benefits the week ending May 2 during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Department of Labor.
The second number, the 22.8 million, keeps churning on a seasonally adjusted basis and is up by more than 450,000, but is down almost 630,000 on the not-seasonally adjusted basis at 21.7 million. That’s a huge range.
This means that a great many are remaining on unemployment insurance, but also some who are not, perhaps owing to payroll protection coming through for many employers who have gotten their small business lending squared away, but also the economy beginning to reopen in many states.
Thus even though more than 32 million people have filed for unemployment initially over past month and a half, the number in the program presently could be more near the 23 million to 25 million level. Still mind-bogglingly high, but perhaps finally plateauing.
Add to that the 5.8 million who were already unemployed when the pandemic began and you see about 30 million to 31 million are out of work, resulting in about a 19 percent effective unemployment rate, easily the highest since the Great Depression.
The good news is that the job losses, at least for now, appear to be nearing their plateau. Readers will recall that it can take a really long time to hit the labor market bottom in recessions, on average 11 months but sometimes as high as 25 months like in the financial crisis and Great Recession.
Although it is too early to tell, there are signs that this recession could hit its labor market bottom more rapidly than the average. We’ll have more information when the May monthly unemployment report is released the first week of June.
Looking forward, that could mean that the number of jobs lost could already be falling by the time fall rolls around.
Politically, that could bode well for President Donald Trump’s reelection bid. Already near record high approval — for example Trump hit 51 percent in the most recent Hill/HarrisX poll — if the jobs numbers are pointed in the right direction soon, it could validate the approach the President took both in leading the country through the pandemic and now in reopening America.
Which, we really do need to reopen even with the risks associated with a pandemic resurgence. As it is, with so many out of work, there is a great risk that households will be suddenly become unable to make monthly mortgage payments, affecting those who do not have federally held mortgages that are allowed to forego payments presently.
And with far fewer taxpayers, state and municipal revenues will be devastated, with massive shortfalls for basic services including education.
Other risks include the incredibly strong dollar, which is associated with periods of high unemployment as central banks and financial institutions engage in a flight to safety in U.S. treasuries, creating artificially high demand for U.S. treasuries. The high demand for dollar denominated assets keeps the dollar strong, and could result in prolonged unemployment if it stays that way for too long.
The danger of remaining closed for too long is that the job losses will resume after portions of the country reopen, and the recession drags on due to complications arising from the devastation that has already been wrought. President Trump, Congress and state governors have to thread a needle here, safely reopening and forging a path for a rapid recovery. The longer this goes on, the more it will seem like there’s no end in sight.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
Video: State of Oklahoma working to rebuild after COVID-19 shutdown, and fast
By Frank McCaffrey
Dr. Anthony Fauci's warnings that reopening will spread deadly COVID-19 are not making everyone happy. Many just want to get back to work, including those in Oklahoma.
“What I do know is what we are seeing in Oklahoma. And, what we are seeing here in our state is really just the opposite of what he is saying. We began to reopen our economy on April the 24th,” said Sean Kouplen, Oklahoma Secretary of Commerce and Workforce Development. “All of this with social distancing and all of this with very careful guidance that we provided to our businesses. And, I think they’ve done a really great job of reopening but being careful.”
Sean Kouplen is the secretary of commerce and workforce development for the state of Oklahoma.
Kouplen is very familiar with the current government loans to keep struggling businesses rolling along.
“I have invested and I own a number of different companies. My real job on a day-to-day basis is I’m a banker. I’m Chairman and CEO of Regent Bank right here in Tulsa. So we actually made over 1,200 PPP loans. Almost $100 million in loans. For April to help save about 10,000 jobs,” he noted.
Kouplen wants to see things go back to normal. Though the vast majority of Oklahoma businesses have stayed open, his state has been devastated by the worldwide shutdown.
“Many of the industries that we have here that are very important industries to us. Aerospace is drastically impacted. Tourism, hospitality, hotels, obviously restaurants,” he said. “We have seen pretty significant unemployment here. We were just a little over three percent when COVID-19 started. We are at 18 percent.”
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-eZ1r2_whY
Pelosi’s Zeroes Act is dangerous for America
May 15, 2020, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement in opposition to the Zeroes Act by House Democrats:
“Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s latest spending binge should rightfully called the Zeroes Act, as it adds not one, not two, but three more trillion dollars to the national debt in a wayward attempt to permanently change the U.S. economy to her socialist vision. The media has been awash in reports of employers whose workers have either refused or been upset that their jobs have been restored due to the federal government mistake of paying people more to be unemployed than employed. Pelosi’s assault on America’s economy not only fails to fix this roadblock to reopening, but extends it in an obvious political ploy to maintain double digit unemployment through the November election.
“But while the Pelosi Zeroes Act is chock full of union pension bailouts and other fiscal absurdities, its real crime is that it borrows another $3 trillion from the Chinese and other financiers who seek to own America. Pelosi’s bill will push the national debt above the $30 trillion mark at a time when the entire world economy is likely to shrink to just above $60 trillion. This is not sustainable.
“During the Obama presidency a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff called our national debt the number one threat to our national security and many scoffed. Now, any thinking person has to agree with that assessment. The Pelosi Zeroes Act is not only irresponsible, it is downright dangerous and should be rejected.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2020/05/pelosis-zeroes-act-is-dangerous-for-america/
