John,
It’s been 10 days since the election and I’ve had a lot to think about.
The thing that I’ve thought about the most is how incredible and supportive everyone was out on the campaign trail, both physical and virtual.
I can’t count the number of people who gave us friendship bracelets and cookies, welcomed us into their homes, donated, and thanked us for the work we did in this race.
Marilyn showing off some of our bracelets
Cookies!
It’s true that it’s very hard for a normal person to run for office in this country, especially if, like we did, you choose not to sell out. I had to quit my job, live off of savings, and on the road for a couple of years, which was a real challenge. But it never felt like a sacrifice, because so many of you were behind us and because we stood for something real.
I’ll send out a more thorough review of the campaign, and what we accomplished together, soon. But here are some toplines.
Independence, MO
Festus, MO
Background
- We built a historic grassroots movement, with support from nearly 250,000 individual donors and Missourians in all 114 counties and the City of St. Louis
- We received zero dollars from the national party, corporate PACs, federal lobbyists, or Big Pharma and Big Oil executives
- Unlike recent Democratic candidates for Senate in Missouri who received tens of millions of dollars in external support, we received almost none
- We were outspent on TV thanks to the millions of dollars raised for Josh Hawley by DC insiders like Senator John Cornyn, as well as millions of dollars in attack ads from a billionaire-funded Super PAC supporting Hawley
- Being outspent and not having the same backup that Hawley got meant we had to target our spending to just four of Missouri’s ten media markets, largely on TV and digital — the need to both get our message out and defend ourselves on air in those four media markets made it impossible to afford things like a proper mail program or rural radio. Our goal was to produce a strong number of ticket-splitting voters in the exurban counties around Kansas City and St. Louis, as well as parts of central and southern Missouri
This was one of our longest running ads. It highlighted my family struggling through bankruptcy, how our community took care of us, and how now communities like where I grew up have been stripped for parts and left behind. It also highlighted my commitment to rebuilding our state and restoring power and freedom to everyday people.
This was our closing ad of the campaign. It highlighted how my opponent was getting rich while the rest of us struggled, and my commitment to investing in Missourians.
Results
- We outperformed the margin in the presidential race and other statewide races by roughly 5% to 10% across the board — a better performance than many Democratic candidates for Senate around the country this cycle. We even achieved a similar margin to several states that received significantly more attention and financial support
- We received roughly the same number of votes that previous competitive Democratic statewide candidates in Missouri have gotten in the last 10-15 years — but also saw a return of the boosted GOP turnout in a presidential cycle that we first saw in 2020, with a couple hundred thousand more GOP voters compared to 2016
- In many targeted counties where we were able to spend to compete, like Jefferson, Ray, and Iron, we outperformed the presidential ticket’s margin by roughly 10% or more
- We received more votes in St. Louis City than any other statewide candidate, and more votes in Kansas City than even the presidential ticket
- In places where we didn’t have the resources to introduce me to voters, like in the Hannibal media market for example, the margins in our race were much closer to standard partisan breakdowns — comparing those results to where we were able to advertise shows just how effective our message was when we were able to get it out
- We thankfully still saw citizen-led initiatives to end Missouri’s total abortion ban, raise the minimum wage, and establish paid sick leave succeed on the statewide ballot
Wentzville, MO
Springfield, MO
We have a lot to be proud of. When we were able to introduce my background and ideas to people, we really over-performed. In a better year, with the resources to compete statewide, that could change.
No matter the final result, I will always know that if votes were weighted by enthusiasm, we would have won in a landslide. You showed up, consistently, to give us the best fighting chance possible. I am so grateful to everyone who dug deep, helped spread the word, and kept us in the game.
More to follow.
Thank you for everything.
Lucas
