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The collapse of Germany’s governing coalition, the unpopularity of all three governing parties and the rise of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is symptomatic of the beleaguered standing of many mainstream parties in Europe and the strains affecting the EU as a whole. A recently published Quincy brief, The Risks to Germany and Europe of a Prolonged War in Ukraine, argues that the Ukraine War, the shut-off of Russian gas supplies, and public concerns about the dangers to Germany have contributed greatly to Germany’s political and fiscal crisis, and that pursuing an unambiguous victory for Ukraine against Russia carries severe risks for the stability and prosperity of Europe as a whole.
These risks could increase radically if the Trump administration were to throw responsibility for Ukraine onto the shoulders of the Europeans without first having achieved a peace settlement there. Fiscal constraints faced by Europe’s NATO members create an unavoidable trade-off between providing arms and equipment to Ukraine, a determined drive by European NATO members to assume more responsibility for their own territorial defense, and maintaining Europe’s endangered health and social welfare systems.
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