November 15, 2024

The Who Wins? Who Loses? Edition. Exit polls on election day indicated that a majority of people with incomes from $30,000 to $100,000 voted for President-Elect Trump, and that voters choosing Trump were looking for someone who would make “needed change.” Looking at the Trump proposals so far, though, the beneficiaries will be the rich and profitable corporations, not people of modest income. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy analyzed all of the Trump tax proposals, including increased tariffs, and found that only the wealthiest 5 percent would see a tax decrease; everyone else would pay more.

Middle to low-income people will be hit in other ways, too. Millions are now benefiting from affordable health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace insurance plans. People with incomes between 100 – 150 percent of the federal poverty line now pay nothing for insurance premiums; others see their costs reduced through the Enhanced Premium Tax Credit. But that will expire by the end of 2025 if Congress does not act to extend it. Republicans have opposed doing so; if they don’t, people will have to pay hundreds or thousands more per year, and more people will become uninsured.

Elon Musk exemplifies who will win in the new Trump Administration. The stock market believes his close relationship to Trump will result in benefits to his company Tesla; he also stands to gain in military contracts for his Space-X and other products. While he wins, he will create many millions of losers through his perch at the new Department of Government Efficiency – not a real department without Congressional action, but expected to recommend extreme cuts that will threaten public health and safety, cripple civil servants’ capacity to protect against corporate excesses or to collect taxes owed, increase poverty and hardship, and close off the opportunities that education and equitable public investment can provide. He’s the poster child for the rich getting richer, but he won’t be alone.

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95%

The bottom 95 percent of Americans will pay higher taxes as a result of combined Trump tax proposals. The higher taxes come largely as a result of his tariff proposals and plans to end green tax credits. Only the richest 5 percent will see their taxes decline if all the Trump tax proposals are adopted. Retweet this.

+$790;
-$36,320

The poorest 20 percent of taxpayers (with incomes up to $28,600) will pay $790 more in taxes in 2026 if the full Trump tax package is enacted. But the richest 1 percent (with incomes $914,900 and up), will see an average tax reduction of $36,320. Retweet this.

+$1,530

Despite Trump claims that he will help working class families, the middle 20 percent (with incomes between $55,000 - $94,000) will pay $1,530 more in taxes in 2026 from the Trump tax proposals, including tariff increases and ending green tax credits. Retweet this.

22% down to 12.8%

The corporate tax effective rate (how much they actually pay, taking into account credits or deductions) dropped from 22 percent down to 12.8 percent once the 2017 Trump tax law took effect. The new Trump corporate tax proposals would reduce the actual rate still further – from 22 percent down to 21 percent, and in some cases 15 percent (and still lower, counting deductions and credits). Retweet this.

↑44%
↓16%

While corporate profits rose by 44 percent for the largest corporations after the passage of the 2017 Trump tax law, corporate taxes paid fell by 16 percent. Retweet this.

For the full report, click here.
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