It would be hard to find a recent political event with more potentially wide-ranging impact on global migration patterns than last week’s re-election of Republican Donald Trump. The United States, home to the world’s largest immigrant population, is set to take a sharply restrictive turn, with promises of mass deportations, higher barriers to protection, crackdowns on irregular entry, and potentially fewer legal avenues. In many ways, Trump’s agenda looks to be not just a continuation of the policies of his first term in the White House, which the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) catalogued extensively at the time, but an expansion of them. Over the last few days, most attention has been focused on the pledge for mass deportations of millions of unauthorized immigrants. Trump made similar—if less full-throated—promises ahead of his first term, which fell short in large part because of “sanctuary” policies by state and local officials, as the Migration Information Source documented. Nonetheless, early staffing picks suggest the administration plans to hit the ground running in January with an assertive enforcement agenda and the promise to deport at least 1 million people a year. Watchers might not even need to wait that long to see an impact; some asylum seekers and others looking to enter the country irregularly are already reconsidering their plans. On enforcement and other issues, the impacts will spread far beyond the United States. In Mexico—the origin of nearly half of the 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States—local aid organizations have begun worrying about their ability to serve large numbers of deportees. Large-scale returns could impact the country’s economy. Newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum said last week that Mexico is planning to beef up its consulates in the United States to assist Mexican nationals in need. The migration-related ramifications of Trump’s victory are not confined solely to the immigration arena, either. At the same time the incoming administration will look to halt irregular migration, stiff new tariffs on U.S. imports could create economic headwinds for Mexico and other countries, potentially increasing unemployment and paradoxically prompting more people to seek work in the United States. Across the Atlantic, many Ukrainians have feared that the incoming Trump team will withdraw military support amid the war with Russia, leaving questions about the long-term future of millions of Ukrainians throughout Europe. For Trump’s critics in the United States, meanwhile, the last few days have been an anxious period. As with previous elections, U.S. citizens’ curiosity about emigrating spiked in the aftermath of the election, presumably by Democrats and others unhappy with the election outcome. In fact, the long campaign had many people expressing interest in leaving well ahead of Election Day. Yet it is unlikely that significant numbers will actually leave; critics made similar comments in 2016, when Trump was first elected, but the number of U.S. nationals applying for permanent residence in Canada increased by only a few dozen people the following year. There are innumerable questions about what will come over the next four years. Whatever happens, MPI and the Migration Information Source will continue publishing smart, evidence-informed analysis and data to make sense of the trends. You can sign up for our monthly U.S. Policy Beat email blast right here. Best regards, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
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