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Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the shattered Democratic Party coalition, why disaffected voters shifted to Donald Trump, and truck drivers’ concerns over automated vehicles.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. The Shattered Democratic Coalition
Topline: With President-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory, AEI’s Ruy Teixeira examines <[link removed]> demographic shifts that reveal fractures within the Democratic Party
coalition. Comparing 2020 and 2024 AP VoteCast data, he finds Democrats performed worse among three groups: young, female, and non-white voters.

Young Voters: Both young women and men (under 30) shifted toward Donald Trump in 2024. Young women supported Joe Biden by 32 points in 2020 but supported Kamala Harris by only 18 points in 2024. Young men supported Biden by 15 points in 2020, then shifted to supporting Trump by 14 points in 2024.

Female Voters: Harris saw a reduced margin among female voters. Women supported Biden by 12 points in 2020 but supported Harris by just 7 points in 2024.

Non-White Voters: Democratic margins declined across all non-white voter groups. Black voters backed Biden by 83 points in 2020 but supported Harris by 67 points. Latino support also dropped, from a 28-point margin for Biden in 2020 to 14 points for Harris in 2024.




“The Democrats really are no longer the party of the common man and woman. . . .This election has made this problem manifest in the starkest possible terms, as the Democratic coalition shattered into pieces.” 
—Ruy Teixeira
2. Voters Wanted Change
Topline: AEI’s Daniel Cox highlights <[link removed]> that voters distrustful of the American political system strongly supported
Donald Trump. A New York Times/Siena poll <[link removed]> from shortly before the election found that 45% of voters felt American democracy was not effectively representing the people.

The Change Candidate: For many, Trump’s appeal lay in his promise to dismantle the current political and economic order, while Harris committed to upholding it. This is notable, as a majority of the electorate is
distrustful of the existing institutions: 62% of voters in the same poll believed the government primarily serves elites rather than the people.

The Results: Harris gained support among wealthy and college-educated voters—those likely to benefit from the current system—while Trump saw gains with everyone else. Cox writes that “Americans living in border towns, cities and suburbs lost confidence in the government to curb illegal immigration, reduce crime, and lower prices. Trump won all these voters—those who said crime, inflation and immigration were the most important issues.”
3. The Risk of Driverless Vehicles?
Topline: Are truck drivers worried about automated vehicles (AVs) taking their jobs? AEI’s Michael Strain and Stan Veuger, along with Daniel Shoag, find <[link removed]> that 44% are very to somewhat worried about the rise of driverless vehicles.



- 93% of truck drivers are not enthusiastic about automated vehicles.
- 48% of truck drivers expect that driverless vehicles will take over in 10 to 50 years.



The Road Ahead: They find that drivers most concerned about automation are actually more likely to reinvest in the profession—such as by buying their own trucks—rather than considering career changes.

Why? A common misperception about the costs of retraining may contribute to drivers’ reluctance: 50% of truck drivers think a community college course costs over $600, though in reality, the average cost is closer to $0.
Last but Not Least . . .
Federal Benefits Paid to Illegal Immigrant Households <[link removed]>
Because of, or in Spite of, Trump? <[link removed]>
Special thanks to Drew Kirkpatrick!
Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!
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