|
2024 Election Outcome—President
The Republican candidate former President Donald J. Trump (R) defeated the Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by an estimated electoral college margin of 295 to 226. It requires 270 electoral votes to win. Arizona and Nevada are two states with tallies that are still outstanding, with 11 and 6 electoral votes, respectively. President-elect Trump currently leads in both states.
While the winner is known, the priorities and direction of the new administration are just beginning to take shape as the transition process begins. ADEA AGR will have much more to report on these matters in future ADEA Advocate newsletters.
|
 |
|
2024 Election Outcome—Senate
The 118th Congress had 51 Senators in the Democratic caucus and 49 in the Republican caucus. Democrats were faced with an impossible map, requiring the defense of 23 of their seats to the Republicans' 10. One of those seats was in West Virginia, where U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was not seeking another term, and where the popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice was their heavily favored candidate. In addition, the other most likely seats to change hands were three Democratic seats, U.S. Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).
In the end, Brown and Tester lost, as did U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). At the time of this writing, the party breakdown is 45 Democrats and 53 Republicans, with two seats yet to be called.
At the time of this writing, Cortez Masto holds a lead of a little more than 17,500 votes, with 96% of the vote tallied; the outstanding votes are principally in Washoe County (Reno) and Clark County (Las Vegas)—two areas that often favor Democrats. The consensus is that she will survive. Also, the other uncalled race is the open seat in Arizona, where independent U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who caucused with Democrats, did not seek reelection. U.S. Rep. Rubin Gallego (D-AZ) has 49.8% of the vote or 43,830 over the Republican Kari Lake, who has 48.1% of the votes with 76% of the total vote counted. There remain many votes to be counted in Republican and Democratic areas of the state.
|
 |
|
2024 U.S. House of Representatives Election Results: Republicans Hold the Majority
At the time of the writing of this article, in the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections, Republicans move closer to securing the majority, winning 210 seats compared to the Democrats' 199. Twenty-six seats were still uncalled. Despite the overall setback, the Democratic Party managed to preserve several key seats in competitive districts, staving off Republican advances in areas that were expected to flip.
This result allows the Republicans to maintain control of the House and play a crucial role in working with President-elect Donald Trump to shape policy and control the flow of legislation. With the 2024 results, the Republicans will retain the ability to advance the party’s legislative priorities forward, particularly in areas such as economic policy, health care, education and immigration.
U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) released a Dear Colleague letter to House Republicans, laying out the Republicans’ legislative plan for the first 100 days of the new Congress. Specifically, Scalise notes that House Republicans will lock in the Trump tax cuts, unleash American energy by increasing energy exploration and production in the United States and redirect surging resources to the southern border to stop the flow of illegal immigration.
|
 |
|
Preparing for the New Congress
On Jan. 3, the 119th Congress will convene at noon for the swearing in of its newly elected members. These include all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 34 U.S. Senate seats that were on the ballot this year in their respective states.
Prior to that largely ceremonial first day, the two parties will caucus to choose their party leaders. In the House, that means the two parties’ candidates for Speaker of the House of Representatives, a position second in the line of succession to the presidency behind the Vice President. In the Senate, the President Pro-Tempore is traditionally the most senior member of the Majority Party, who is third in the line of succession. There is no opposition to U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to continue as Democratic Leader in the Senate.
However, there will be a race for the Senate Republican Leader position. The current Leader, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced that he will step aside at the end of the year. Senate Republicans will vote on his replacement Nov. 13. This has created a race between the “Three Johns”: U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the current Republican Whip, which is the number two leadership position in the Senate; U.S. Sen. John Barrasso, M.D. (R-WY), the current Caucus Chair; and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who held the Whip position prior to Thune. (Cornyn’s father was a dentist.)
|
Eight New Governors and No Party Flips in Governors' Races
Eleven states held gubernatorial elections in 2024, and while there were only three incumbents, there were no changes in the party controlling governorships in the states. The three incumbents reelected to office were Greg Gianforte (R) in Montana, Spencer Cox (R) in Utah and Phil Scott (R) in Vermont.
The new Republican governors are:
- Mike Braun (R) in Indiana will succeed term limited Eric Holcomb (R).
-
Mike Kehoe (R) in Missouri will succeed term limited Mike Parson (R).
-
U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) in North Dakota will succeed the retiring Republican Gov. Doug Burgum.
-
Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) in Vermont will replace Chris Sununu (R) who will be stepping down due to term limits.
-
Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) in West Virginia will replace Jim Justice (R) who recently won the state’s open Senate seat.
The new Democratic Governors are:
-
Matt Meyer (D) in Delaware will succeed term limited John Carney (D).
-
Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in North Carolina will succeed outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D).
-
Attorney General Bob Ferguson in Washington will succeed retiring Gov. Jay Inslee (D).
Democrats will continue to control
23 Governor’s offices, while Republicans will control 27.
|
Republicans Flip Michigan House and Possibly Minnesota House; Supermajorities Are Lost in North Carolina and Vermont; A Handful of States Still too Close to Call
While 44 states held state legislative elections in 2024, only a handful may be facing significant changes. Results are still being sorted, but it now appears that few states have chosen a new party to lead their legislatures.
In Michigan, Republicans took back control of the state House after losing it to Democrats in 2022. At the time of this writing, Republicans are projected to win or lead 58 of the chamber’s 110 races. The change is unlikely to result in significant right-leaning policy changes, as Democrats will still control the Governor’s office and the State Senate. The change may however slow or stop Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s policy agenda.
In Minnesota, Democrats will maintain control of the State Senate but may be facing a tie or possibly a flip in the State House where they currently enjoy a slim majority. At the time of this writing, control of the House appears to be evenly split 67-67. Two races where Democrats currently hold a lead, however, are too close to call and may be headed for a recount.
In North Carolina, Republicans will likely lose their veto-proof supermajority in the House of Representatives but will maintain it in the State Senate. At the time of this writing, it appears that the Republican House supermajority will be lost by one seat. The legislature overrode a number of current Democratic Governor Roy Cooper’s vetoes, including one that would have stopped an anti-DEI bill from becoming law.
In Vermont, Democrats will lose a supermajority in both chambers that allowed them to override six vetoes in one day. At the time of this writing, Republicans had picked up six seats in the 30-member Senate and 15 in the 150-member House.
Chambers in a handful of states are still too close to call:
-
In Arizona, Republicans will likely maintain their slim lead in the House, but Democrats could possibly force a tie in the Senate.
-
In Nevada, it appears that Democrats will likely maintain control of the Assembly, but several races remain close.
- In Maine, Democrats will maintain control of the Senate, but the House still has not been determined.
-
Finally, in Alaska, Democrats have a strong chance to lead the coalition that governs the House, but several races still remain close.
|
 |
|
Democrats Tee up Health Care Bill for Lame Duck Session Passage
U.S. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) have introduced
the S. 5194, Health Care Affordability Act, which seeks to permanently extend the enhanced premium tax credits (PTCs) for Health Insurance Marketplace coverage. The Health Insurance Marketplace was established by the Affordable Care Act. These enhanced PTCs, introduced through the Inflation Reduction Act, have made health care more affordable for Americans by increasing subsidies for individuals with incomes between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL) and by expanding eligibility to those earning above 400% FPL. The enhanced credits are set to expire in 2025, risking a sharp rise in health insurance costs for more than 20 million Americans, potentially causing three million people to lose coverage and pushing nine million others to pay significantly higher premiums. U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) also introduced H.R. 9774, which is identical legislation in the House.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that making the enhanced PTCs permanent would expand coverage for millions of Americans, though it would cost the federal government approximately $335 billion over the next decade.
Democrats hope to pass this legislation by the end of this year.
|
California Voters Approve Ballot Measure to Increase Funding for Health Care, Including Medi-Cal Dental
On election day, California
voters approved Proposition 35, which made permanent the state’s existing tax on managed health care insurance plans. If the plan is approved by the federal government, the tax will provide dedicated revenues to pay for Medi-Cal health care services. According to the California Dental Association, “designated funding for Medi-Cal dental services would amount to at least a 10% increase in its total annual budget starting in 2027, approximately $300 million including federal matching funds.” The proposition also secures up to $10 million annually for dental student loan repayments.
| | |
| | | |
