What do these picks say about policy direction?
Trump’s first appointments underscore a commitment to firm, sometimes hard-line policies that mark major departures from the Biden administration.
On immigration, Miller is known for a hard-right stance, raising the idea of using the military and National Guard to close the border and focus on immigration detention. Similarly Homan
told “60 Minutes” earlier this year that mass deportation is possible, and that it could be done without separating families, so long as the entire family is deported.
Waltz, Rubio and Zeldin are all vocal supporters of Israel and opponents of Iran, adding to signals that Trump plans to be tough with Tehran. We do not know yet what this will mean for Israel’s policy in Gaza or any possible cease-fire. But Rubio in the past has been on one side of that debate,
opposing cease-fire calls and agreeing with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel must destroy Hamas. His view is that civilian harm, generally, is the fault of Hamas.
Zeldin as the pick for the EPA had come with fewer guideposts. During his time in Congress, and in my reporting and work with him, Zeldin has not been particularly known for energy or environmental policy. But he is seen as a straight-talking, get-it-done guy that is affable, if uncompromising, behind the scenes.
He is fully on board with the Trump agenda, meaning he’s expected to gut several Biden climate-related actions, including the push to incentivize electric vehicles and clean car manufacturing. Trump has already said that he would again
pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement.
At the same time, Zeldin is stressing the energy portion of the Trump agenda, which includes Trump’s rally cry of “drill, baby, drill.” This likely means expanding fossil fuel leasing and drilling on federal lands.
As Trump
promised in his campaign, his agenda is one that ignores and sometimes denies the threat of climate change and focuses on American energy dominance, including fossil fuel production.
What does this mean for the House?
With at least two Republican members of Congress departing for the administration, House Republicans will start the year with smaller numbers.
Republicans are
within reach of keeping their majority (though a cluster of races is still not called, including in California.) But that majority would be thin, perhaps four or five seats.
Losing Stefanik and Waltz, even for a few months as special elections are called, would mean Republicans in the House would have just a three-seat majority during that time.
That will make it tough and give several Republican factions the chance to threaten to hold up items if they don’t get their way. This is the exact dynamic that led to congressional chaos throughout 2023.
The main difference this time around: Trump. House members did not feel much pressure to fall in line with party leaders during the Biden administration. That could change with Trump.
How does this transition compare to others?
This is the fastest pace of announcements that we have seen in recent history.
President Joe Biden’s first nominations, those of
his national security team, were announced
Nov. 23, 2020. That was 16 days after the Associated Press
called the election for him.
Trump started to roll out his national security team, as well as others, five days after the election was called for him last Wednesday.
The president-elect is outpacing his 2016 self as well. His first Cabinet announcement that year was
made on Nov. 18, nine days after the election
was called.
What does this tell us? That a lesson Trump learned from his first term is to move even more quickly. We should expect a frenetic pace, not just for appointments but for everything, particularly for the next six to 10 months.
This will be a key period of time that sets the stage for the next four years. Generally, the first year is the most productive of any president. And Trump and his allies are specifically eyeing his first 100 days for many goals.
Which of these goals writ large will become tangled in Congress, even a Republican Congress, is harder to say.
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