Daily News Brief

November 12, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Countries began this year’s United Nations climate summit—known as COP29—with an agreement yesterday to move forward on carbon credit standards that are needed to launch a global carbon market. The summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, is under global scrutiny not only due to its host’s reliance on fossil fuel production but also over concerns that U.S. climate action could significantly diminish once President-Elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump has threatened to again pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom (UK) today became the third country to announce its updated emissions reduction target, pledging to slash emissions to 81 percent of 1990 levels by 2035.

Environmentalists praised the UK’s new target; Brazil and the United Arab Emirates so far are the only other countries that have announced their updated targets ahead of a February 2025 deadline. The World Meteorological Organization said yesterday that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record, a measure that has been underscored by extreme weather events in the United States and across the world. Head of the UN climate arm Simon Stiell defended the UN climate process in a speech yesterday, saying that it is “the only place we have” to “credibly hold each other to account to act” on the climate crisis. (Reuters, Climate Home News, World Resources Institute)

Analysis

“The [summit’s] focus on climate finance could affect the level of ambition reflected in [emissions reduction] commitments due early next year, particularly for developing countries. Those nations are hesitant to commit to more ambitious targets without first securing clear financial support,” CFR Senior Fellow Alice C. Hill and CFR’s Priyanka Mahat write in this Expert Brief.

“Other players, notably China, are increasingly moving into a leadership position on the [climate] issue, because of the strategic policy and economic interests it advances. The European Union is moving ahead with its green economic development agenda despite a rightward shift in the balance of power across the EU27—with action on the climate emergency driving the economic development needed for this region of 350 million people,” Climate Analytics’ Bill Hare writes for The Guardian.

“A Trump presidency can delay, but not stop, the global transition to renewable energy, but it may more effectively stymie progress than during his first term,” Inside Climate News’ Bob Berwyn writes. 

United States

President-Elect Donald Trump revealed that he will nominate New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, former New York congressman Lee Zeldin as head of the Environmental Protection Agency, and former acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement director Thomas Homan as “border czar.” Though Trump did not formally announce other choices yesterday, Vice President-Elect JD Vance suggested that Trump advisor Stephen Miller would become deputy White House chief of staff. (WaPo, NYT, X) 

In this article, CFR experts answer readers’ questions on Trump and foreign policy. 

Pacific Rim

Ishiba Shigeru won a leadership race inside Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September, but a rare snap election that he called last month ended the LDP coalition’s parliamentary majority. He defeated a lawmaker from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan in a vote yesterday to maintain the prime minister post. (Kyodo)

CFR expert Sheila A. Smith explains the LDP’s snap election loss for Ishiba. 

China/Indonesia: The countries signed $10 billion in bilateral deals, including on green technologies and the digital economy, over the weekend, their leaders said. They also agreed on a maritime resource development deal that some analysts criticized as lending credibility to Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. Indonesia’s foreign ministry said today that China’s claims in the area “have no international legal basis.” (Reuters, SCMP)

South and Central Asia

A top official in Afghanistan’s Taliban government told Bloomberg it seeks a fresh start to relations, including the unfreezing of some $9 billion of frozen foreign exchange reserves. As the Taliban works to get international recognition for its pariah government, it held official talks with India last week and sent a delegation to the ongoing UN climate summit for the first time. (Bloomberg, TNN, AP)

Pakistan: International Monetary Fund officials began talks today with Pakistan over a $7 billion loan program agreed on in September. The visit was unusual, as it is too early for the first official review of the loan program; unnamed finance ministry sources told Reuters the meeting was meant to take stock of Pakistan’s deficit. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman levied the accusation yesterday at a Riyadh summit of Muslim and Arab leaders. He also warned Israel against launching attacks on Iranian soil in an apparent sign of thawing ties between Riyadh and Tehran. Israel has repeatedly rejected claims that its military is committing genocide in the Gaza Strip. On Saturday, Qatar said it would stop mediating between Israel and Hamas after the sides had been unable to reach an agreement on a cease-fire. (BBC, CNN)

In this YouTube Short, CFR expert Steven A. Cook discusses whether a cease-fire is still on the table. 

Iran: The government began implementing rolling power blackouts across the country, including two hours per day in Tehran as the country experiences a natural gas shortage. (FT)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Navin Ramgoolam is set to return as prime minister after a landslide victory for the opposition coalition. He led the country from 1995 to 2000 and again from 2005 to 2014. The outgoing government was mired in corruption allegations and quickly conceded the race. (AP)

Chad: An attack Saturday by Boko Haram militants on a military post ended in ninety-six of the assailants and seventeen Chadian soldiers dead, the army said. Chad’s president launched an operation against Boko Haram in Lake Chad last month following an attack that killed forty soldiers. (AP)

Europe

An appeals court in The Hague ruled against a previous 2021 decision that Shell had to align its emissions with the international Paris climate agreement in addition to national legislation. The plaintiff, Friends of the Earth Netherlands, called today’s ruling a setback and said they are weighing an appeal to the Dutch Supreme Court, but that could take years. (BBC)

This CFR video looks at what could happen if the world doesn’t meet the Paris goal. 

Ukraine/North Korea/Russia: Russia has deployed almost fifty thousand troops to its Kursk region where Ukraine holds some territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said yesterday. Zelenskyy has previously said thousands of those troops fighting for Russia in Kursk are North Korean soldiers; Pyongyang and Moscow ratified their mutual defense treaty in recent days. (CNN, AP)

Americas

Multiple airlines halted flights to Haiti after gunfire hit a passenger plane attempting to land in Port-au-Prince on Monday. The incident came a day after the country’s transitional governing council replaced its prime minister over internal disputes. (BBC, AP)

Ecuador: President Daniel Noboa Azín swapped out the vice president with his planning secretary after months of estrangement. Separately, Ecuador’s electoral court ruled that conservative candidate Jan Topić cannot run in next year’s presidential election, citing potential conflict of interest due to Topić’s business interests with local governments. (Bloomberg)

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