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AEI's weekly digest of top commentary and scholarship on the issues that matter most

Understanding Trump’s Victory

The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition

November 9, 2024

The decisiveness of Donald Trump’s presidential victory surprised many analysts, but AEI scholar Ruy Teixeira had presciently warned throughout the campaign that the defection of working-class and minority voters could cost Democrats victory. In his postelection analysis, Teixeira documents the scale of this defeat and the failure of elite, activist-driven Democratic Party politics.

 

 

Teixeira’s piece is one example of how the best election analysis is happening outside the confines of the traditional media in outlets like Substack, where heterodox writers can reach their audiences directly. Read the latest edition of AEI scholar and political scientist Roger Pielke Jr.’s Substack, The Honest Broker, where he analyzes the election’s implications for policy, media, and climate politics.

 

Along with Pielke and Teixeira, AEI scholar James Pethokoukis is also excelling in this innovative media space. In the latest edition of his Faster, Please! Substack, Pethokoukis outlines how a Trump presidency could supercharge economic innovation, dynamism, and growth.

 

Conversely, some of Trump’s policies, especially on tariffs and immigration, could limit growth, increase inflation, and worsen the US debt situation. Desmond Lachman illustrates the risks if Trump follows through on these campaign proposals.

 

Trump’s victory reflects the growing gender divide that Director of AEI’s Survey Center on American Life Daniel A. Cox has been highlighting for years. Drawing from exit poll data, Cox analyzes Trump’s record gains among young men.

 

Introducing the “More Accurate Consumer Price Index”

Correctly assessing real economic growth and wage gains depends on accurate measures of inflation, but the best contemporary measures used by federal statistical agencies, like the Consumer Price Index, overstate increases in the cost of living, especially in the long run. In a new Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility working paper, Director Scott Winship develops a new “More Accurate Consumer Price Index” (MACPI) to better assess long-term trends in wages, earnings, income, and wealth. Building on decades of research into the biases of existing metrics, Winship finds that from 1973 to 2023, wage gains have been dramatically understated: According to the MACPI, wages for typical wage earners rose by 61.5 percent in that period, instead of only 2 percent, as the most cited measure indicates. He finds similarly dramatic differences for wealth and household income, suggesting the federal government needs to revamp inflation measurement if we are to correctly understand the US economy’s challenges and successes.

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Biden believed in the propaganda that said he could be the next FDR. His self-regard cost him the presidency. His policies created the border crisis. His spending produced inflation. His order to retreat hastily from Afghanistan eroded American deterrence. His equity agenda and transgender policies alienated voters. And his hubris led him to run for reelection despite his age and infirmity.

Matthew Continetti