Surprises, upsets and nail-biters to watch

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** California Election Results: Rightward shift with key races still in play
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Dear John,

President Donald Trump’s landslide victory this week helped deliver the U.S. Senate to Republicans. But Trump's Red Wave also surged over the Sierras and across California.

Trump turned ten California counties red that had not supported him in 2020. And while California remains a majority-blue state, the Golden State has proven pivotal in the Republican Party's efforts to secure a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. California voters kept 12 seats in the Republican column and four races are too close to call with several notable flips in districts currently held by Democrats.

It’s no mystery why Trump’s popularity exploded in California, especially in the agricultural heartland of the Central Valley. During a campaign stop in September, Trump promised, “Vote for me, California. I’m going to give you safety. I’m going to give you a great border. And I’m going to give you more water than almost anybody has. The farmers up north are going to be able to use 100 percent of their land, not just one percent.”

In stark contrast, Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Democrats have diverted water away from farmers for years and are pushing policies that could mean future water rationing for Californians.

Public safety was also a top priority for Californians this election, with over 70 percent of voters backing Proposition 36 to increase penalties for shoplifting and drug-related offenses. This decisive approval marked a clear rejection of the soft-on-crime policies established by Prop 47 a decade ago — as well as Gov. Newsom’s months-long campaign urging voters to oppose Prop 36.

Given this sweeping shift, one might expect Gov. Newsom to take a moment to reflect on why so many Californians tuned him out. Or why Vice President Kamala Harris had the worst performance of any Democrat presidential candidate in California since 2004, despite — or more likely because of — her years as California’s U.S. Senator and Attorney General.

Californians are clearly fed up with the policies of Newsom and California’s Democrat-controlled legislature, which have led to an unprecedented exodus of families and businesses from the state.

Instead, Newsom doubled down and announced a special legislative session for Dec. 2 to “Trump-proof” California’s progressive policies. Newsom remains focused more on political theater than addressing what really matters to California voters: lowering the cost of living, improving the economy, supporting California businesses, and putting the brakes on out-of-control government overreach.

Keep in mind that California has the largest number of Republican voters in the nation — over 5.3 million.

Nevertheless, Rob Bonta, California’s Attorney General and a 2026 gubernatorial candidate, held a press conference this week where he lamented, “As the reality of a second Trump administration takes hold, I know there is a lot of fear, anxiety, frustration, and sadness, and I understand. Those feelings are natural…”

Bonta pledged, “If Trump attacks your rights, I’ll be there. If Trump comes after your freedoms, I’ll be there.”

Throughout his time in office, however, Bonta has repeatedly wielded his authority to do the exact opposite — publicly threatening and filing lawsuits against Republican-leaning city leaders and school boards on numerous occasions.

While California’s ballots are still being counted, a series of surprising flips and close races signal that common sense principles and candidates are gaining renewed traction across the state. California’s future trajectory now rests on the resolve of both new and returning elected officials who must be prepared to champion locally-grounded governance that respects the deep-seated concerns of their constituents.

Keep reading to check out our insider’s guide to the must-watch races unfolding across the state, each offering a glimpse into California’s evolving political landscape.

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** California Races to Watch
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California Legislature: Republican seats may increase in Democrat-dominated Capitol

Early results suggest Republicans may gain a few seats in both the California State Senate and Assembly. As vote counting continues, the numbers could shift by 2 to 4 points in either direction. Several races that flew under the radar could flip in the coming days. While the added Republican seats won't end the Democrat supermajority, it could slow its momentum.

State Senate Races

One of the most unexpected upsets in the California Senate is the success of Republican Steven Choi, who looks to have taken out Democrat incumbent Senator Josh Newman in Orange County’s District 37. Newman was previously the (powerful) Chair of the Senate Education Committee, and public sector unions have been funneling massive political donations ([link removed]) to Newman through Democratic Central Committees in rural parts of the state.

Choi currently leads with 52.1% of the vote to Newman’s 47.9%, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, although official results are not yet final. Choi, an immigrant from South Korea, has served as Mayor of Irvine and as a State Assemblymember. His campaign focused on fiscal responsibility, public safety and education reform. Former State Senator John Moorlach, who previously represented this district, endorsed Choi, which surely helped given Moorlach's recognition in the area.

Another key senate race to watch is Republican Senator Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh's contest against a radical progressive challenger who aimed to take out the conservative senator. Ochoa Bogh is up 17,000 votes and appears poised to win reelection in Senate District 19, which includes parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Republican candidate Suzette Valladares leads Democrat Kipp Mueller in Senate District 23, which includes both San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties, by nearly 20,000 votes.

And, in a surprising turn, Jerry McNerney, a former Democrat Central Valley Congressman, is barely leading against Republican challenger Jim Shoemaker in the fight to represent the 5th State Senate District. Shoemaker's performance in this traditionally Democratic district, which encompasses San Joaquin and Alameda counties, has likely been given a boost by President Trump’s coattails, indicating a possible conservative shift in the region.

Also worth noting: While conservative Yvette Corkrean lost her bid to replace incumbent Democrat Scott Wiener for San Francisco’s senate seat, her campaign drew attention to Wiener’s controversial policies, emphasizing the importance of having strong candidates in even the most challenging races.

State Assembly Races

Several races for State Assembly are also being watched closely.

Republican Leticia Castillo is leading her race by 2,500 votes in California's 58th Assembly District that includes parts of Corona and Riverside. Her success reflects a trend across the Inland Empire and Southern California where conservatives showed up at the polls to make their voices heard.

Republican Jeff Gonzalez, a decorated combat veteran and business owner, is leading in the 36th Assembly District, which includes the city of Coachella. Despite his minimal campaign funding, Gonzalez is up by 2,000 votes, showcasing his grassroots appeal.

Meanwhile, Republican Patrick Lee Gipson is within 3,000 votes in a race that remains too close to call. Gipson is running against incumbent Democrat Pilar Schiavo in the 40th Assembly District in Santa Clarita.

In Stockton, Denise Aguilar Mendez, a tireless advocate for parental rights, is narrowly trailing Democrat Rhodesia Ransom in a 45-55 race. The race is notable because Aguilar is seriously underfunded compared to her opponent. Her solid showing in California's 13th Assembly District, which includes Stockton and Tracy, highlights the potential impact of maximizing conservative turnout.

And, Republican Assemblyman Joe Patterson has defeated Neva Parker in the 5th Assembly District, which includes Rocklin and parts of Placer and El Dorado counties. The race is interesting because Patterson was known for his bipartisan efforts during his first term in the Assembly, particularly on fentanyl legislation, but Democrat party leaders still picked Parker — a Senate staffer — to challenge him. No good deed goes unpunished in the California legislature.

Local School Board Races

Conservatives also gained substantial ground in local school board races, holding or flipping multiple seats.

In Northern California, Heidi Moore — a proven advocate for parental involvement — won with 45 percent of the vote in a three-way race in Elk Grove Unified. In Rocklin Unified School District, re-elected board members Julie Hupp and Rachelle Price successfully defended their seats against a significant influx of funding from the California Teachers Association.

In Southern California, Lisa Davis’ massive victory in Capistrano Unified School District means a conservative majority is poised to reclaim control of the board — a significant victory for parents’ voices in education.

In San Diego County, Tracie Thil’s likely victory in Santee School District's Board of Education race and Michael Allman’s lead in the San Dieguito Union High School District signal growing support for financial oversight and balanced curriculum.

Another school board race to watch is in Newport-Mesa Unified School District, where challenger Robin Mesinger is trailing incumbent Leah Ersoylu by only about 70 votes.

And Joseph Komrosky in the Temecula Valley Unified School District is on track to regain his school board seat after teachers unions targeted him for a recall in June. Komrosky’s success in the face of union political attacks shows just how popular candidates are who put families first.

Looking Forward

Many of the local candidates who succeeded in this election benefited from the in-person and virtual Candidate Academies led by CPC’s California Local Elected Officials (CLEO) over the last two years. The nonpartisan trainings focus on campaign fundamentals to encourage Californians to run for local office.

Now, CLEO is offering its new Strategy Academy to newly elected local officials to help them prepare for their first 100 days in office and develop a strategic long-term plan for success. The Strategy Academies are being held in-person regionally as well as virtually to support new local officials across the state.

If you would like to support CLEO’s efforts to train first-time and veteran local elected officials on the first principles of government accountability, transparency and fiscal sustainability — as well as how to stand up to government unions and special interests — you can make a gift of any size here. ([link removed])
New Podcast ()
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** Radio Free California #362: The Return of the Resistance State
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Gov. Gavin Newsom promises to deploy the power of the state of California in a lawfare campaign to stop President-elect Trump before he starts. CPC president Will Swaim and CPC board member David Bahnsen discuss Newsom's tantrum and break down the election results on this week's podcast. Listen now. ([link removed])

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