AJP Action’s Statement on The “Gaza Vote's” Decisive Role in 2024 Presidential Election [WASHINGTON, D.C., November 7, 2024] —Tuesday’s decisive defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris is a definitive rejection of her policy of genocide in Gaza. Marked by unprecedented losses in all key battleground states, on Tuesday, Americans confirmed what the Americans for Justice in Palestine Action (AJP Action) predicted six months ago: the Democratic Party's support for genocide would have severe electoral consequences. Reeling from the rejection of its policies, the Democratic Party has a narrow window to redeem itself and enforce an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and an arms embargo on Israel. AJP Action commissioned a YouGov poll six months ago that accurately predicted approximately one in five Democratic and Independent voters would be less likely to vote for Harris due to the administration's policy of genocide in Gaza. Now, election results show that Trump defeated Harris in Wisconsin by 0.9%, Michigan by 1.4%, and Pennsylvania by 1%. These margins of defeat align with our projections—particularly when compared to the 2020 presidential election, where President Biden secured wins in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by margins of 0.6%, 2.8%, and 1.2%, respectively. These results validate our May findings that 40% or more of Democratic and Independent voters in these states indicated they would be more likely to support a candidate who pursued de-escalatory policies, such as an immediate ceasefire and conditions on military aid. By refusing to utilize its power to impose a ceasefire and enabling Israel to carry out its genocide, the Biden-Harris administration demotivated its base. The election margins in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where we found the highest levels of voter concern about Gaza policy, are particularly telling. A separate poll by the Arab American Institute further reinforced our findings, finding that 77% of Democrats would’ve been more likely to support Harris if the DNC allowed a Palestinian American speaker at the convention. These numbers reflect the broader trend our polling identified months ago: voters across demographic groups are demanding a fundamental shift in U.S. policy and attitude toward the region. The success of the “uncommitted” movement in primary elections, combined with these general election results, suggests the Democratic Party risks losing voters for a generation. This election underscores a clear reality: foreign policy decisions carry direct political consequences. This electoral earthquake mirrors the historic shift of 2001, when Arab and Muslim Americans abandoned the Republican Party in response to discriminatory policies and rhetoric following 9/11. Today’s election results suggest an equally seismic reversal. The Harris administration’s stance on Palestine, coupled with its failure to engage meaningfully with Arab and Muslim American communities—from rejecting a Palestinian speaker at the Democratic National Convention to embracing figures like Liz Cheney and Bill Clinton—is alienating not only Arab and Muslim Americans but an entire progressive coalition for a generation. However, unlike the post-9/11 exodus, fueled by permanent policy changes and institutionalized discrimination, the Democratic Party now has a brief window to rebuild trust and restore voters’ faith. Implementing an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and an arms embargo on Israel during this critical lame-duck period is essential. AJP Action urges the Democratic Party to use this lame-duck period to implement an immediate arms embargo on Israel and to compel war criminal Netanyahu to agree to the ceasefire agreement already endorsed by the Biden administration, the UN Security Council, and the Palestinian leadership.
In solidarity,
Americans for Justice in Palestine Action |
