Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Nov. 7, 2024
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Wargaming the Future of Climate Change
For decades, military leaders have used wargames to think through everything from nuclear escalation to pandemics. Climate change has historically not been a focus of these exercises, but that's starting to change.
RAND researchers now routinely work climate disasters into their game scenarios. For example, a recent RAND card game looked at how climate change might affect people, infrastructure, and military operations in South Asia around the year 2040. The game has 31 event cards, each describing a climate hazard that could strike the region: withering crops, devastating blackouts, or even a city lost at sea. Players draw one card to represent one year and then discuss the consequences.
This approach is particularly helpful to defense planners because it considers the real social, political, and military impacts of climate change. "People sometimes think climate change is going to progress in a natural order," says RAND's Bryan Rooney, part of the team that developed the game. "That's not right. It's going to be different levels of bad, in different places, at different times."
RAND researchers are working on more games that communicate the science of climate change, including games that examine scenarios in the Indo-Pacific and Africa. Rooney sees these as essential: "Without climate-informed games, you're not really understanding the physical environment. And you're going to miss a lot of what's coming."
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Cost-Effective Mental Health Treatment in Low-Income Countries
More than 75 percent of people with mental health conditions in low-income countries do not receive treatment. Why? One reason is that mental health care is often viewed as time-intensive and less cost-effective relative to treatments for infectious diseases like HIV. Evidence from a new RAND study challenges this perception. The findings show that mental health care interventions can be relatively inexpensive if they build off existing health infrastructure, involve local community members, and deliver therapy in a group format. This approach can also be effective, reducing patients' depression symptoms and helping improve their physical health.
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Russia's Imperial Ambitions Are a Clear Threat to NATO
At a summit in Washington this summer, NATO warned that Russia is "the most significant and direct threat to allies' security." According to RAND's John Tefft and William Courtney, both former U.S. ambassadors, this isn't likely to change. As long as Russian President Vladimir Putin is in power, the Kremlin will continue militarizing Russia's economy and society--and falsely portraying its war in Ukraine as an existential struggle against NATO and the West. Tefft and Courtney note that growing stresses within Russia could eventually lead to a regime change in Moscow and, in turn, a diminished threat. But NATO should not count on that.
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** RAND Recommends
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- What's the risk of an asteroid or a comet colliding with the planet? Could a nuclear war wipe out humanity? What about a severe pandemic? Sobering new RAND research considers the end of the world--and how to prevent it.
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- In August, RAND's Derek Grossman weighed in on how a second Trump presidency could be perceived in the Indo-Pacific: "How a country views the prospect of another Trump term depends in large part on whether or not it already has good relations with the United States."
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- RAND's Adeyemi Okunogbe speaks to Nature about the high cost of weight loss drugs known as GLP-1 agonists. The price tag means these medications are "a long way off" in low- and middle-income countries.
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** Events
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Addressing Imploding Health Care Systems: Is Primary Care Reform Really the Answer?
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 (Online)
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Expert Views on State-Level Policies for Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder
Thursday, November 14, 2024 (Online)
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Policy Lab
Wednesday, November 20, 2024 (Online)
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** Apply for RAND's Summer Associate Program
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Are you a graduate student? Do you want to help tackle the world's toughest policy problems? Applications for our Summer Associate Program are now open. Apply by December 2nd for an opportunity to spend summer 2025 at RAND.
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