Jeff Stein of the Washington Post has done a preliminary autopsy report on the election, and finds a marked shift of those with incomes above $100,000 toward Dems and Kamala this year compared to 2020. He also found there was a big shift of those with incomes below $100k to Trump.
Trump didn’t win any blue states but he dramatically closed the gap in many of the bluest.
Here are five that got a little purpler in Tuesday’s election. Look at how much progress Trump made in slicing into the giant leads in Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Maryland, New Jersey and New York.
Illinois — Harris beat Trump by more than 8 points. Biden defeated Trump by nearly 17 points in 2020.
New Jersey — Harris won by about 5 points. Biden won by nearly 16 points in 2020.
New York — Harris won by less than 12 points. Biden won by more than 23 points in 2020.
Connecticut — Harris won by 13 points. Biden won by 20 points in 2020.
Maryland — Harris won by 23 points. Biden won by 33 points in 2020.
We don’t have the final results yet from the three far-left states on the West Coast: California, Oregon, and Washington, so those should be regarded as in progress. (Why is it taking so long?) But based on results so far, here is the 50-state ranked table of the vote share move towards Trump from 2020 to 2024.
The betting markets were more accurate than the polls and gave useful information to financial markets in real-time about the unbiased state of the race.
Not only did the betting markets aggregate all of the publicly available information, but market participants also had additional information – which is why they thought the election was worth betting on.
Polymarket consistently gave Trump better odds than pollster models not because they were being manipulated, but because the biggest bettor on there correctly identified that public polls underrepresented Trump voters and confirmed it via his own private surveys using the "how are your neighbors voting" question.
He is a financial trader who lives in France and had no rooting interest in the election. But thanks to him, the markets aggregated better information than the public models and produced a more predictive outcome.
He made $50 million, too.
But nobody's perfect - he had Trump losing Michigan.
4) Voters Are Finally Ousting Politicians for Crazy Covid Lockdowns
Donald Trump's victory shouldn't be viewed in isolation. It is part of a worldwide revolt against unaccountable elites in government who have mismanaged economies and curtailed civil liberties.
When COVID hit in early 2020, every industrial democracy (save for Sweden and partially the United States) locked down their economies. They then encouraged the printing of money to pay for a tsunami of spending that unleashed inflation that crippled ordinary people.
Since the end of COVID, here is the list of incumbent governments that have been swept out of office by voters.
United Kingdom, Italy, Argentina, New Zealand, Australia, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, and – of course – the United States. Ruling parties in France, South Korea, Japan, and India have lost their governing majority and have had to form minority governments.
Canada, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must face the voters next year, is likely the next country to turf out its ruling party (Trudeau is trailing his Conservative opposition by up to 20 points).
But Germany may go first. Socialist German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz announced the collapse of his three-party coalition this week. His government will face a confidence vote in Parliament on January 15. He is likely to lose that vote and trigger an early election in March, which the opposition Christian Democrats will likely win.
When will governing parties such as Kamala Harris' Democrats engage in some real introspection about why they've alienated their electorates? Don't hold your breath.
There's one issue in particular, actually, that Republicans align closer with Latino voters or Latino voters align more closely with the conservative party, and that's school choice.
You can't help but wonder, both Florida and Texas have been very aggressive about expanding school choice. Where have Republicans made the greatest gains among Hispanic voters? Florida and Texas.
