Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Happy Thursday! Today, we examine the 2024 presidential election as working-class voters shift right and the marriage gap persists.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. Working-Class Realignment

Topline: As President-Elect Donald Trump made gains with noncollege and middle-class voters, it’s worth revisiting analysis from John Judis and AEI’s Ruy Teixeira on why Democrats are losing support from working-class voters.

CNN exit polls show Trump won 50% of voters with an income less than $100,000, while Vice President Kamala Harris won 51% of voters with an income over $100,000.

Additionally, Trump won 56% of noncollege voters, while Harris won 55% of college-educated voters.

Political Realignment: Though the Democratic Party has sought to represent working-class Americans, these voters have steadily shifted away from the party. Initially, white working-class voters shifted right, and now Asian and Latino working-class voters are following.

Why? Judis and Teixeira make the case that working-class voters are leaving the Democratic Party because of its stances on trade deals, spending bills, immigration, and cultural policies.

“In our view, one prerequisite for reviving the promise of American democracy is the reemergence of a political party whose primary commitment is to look after the country’s working and middle classes.”

—Judis and Teixeira

More on Party Realignments

2. The Marriage Gap

Topline: Exit polls show Trump won 56% of married voters, while Harris won 54% of unmarried voters. Wendy Wang and AEI’s Brad Wilcox find this gap reflects a larger trend: More Republicans than Democrats are married.

State of the Unions: Wang and Wilcox highlight that while the number of marriages in America declined, the partisan gap in marriage has increased.

In 2000, 71% of Republicans and 61% of Democrats were married.
In 2024, 65% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats were married.

Young Love: This trend is also reflected in younger adults (age 25–44), as a majority of Republicans are married while only a minority of Democrats are married. Among Republicans in this age range, 55% of men and 63% of women are married.

Why? Though these trends reflect some changing political dynamics, such as young women’s shift to the Democratic Party, Wang and Wilcox determine that “this partisan marriage gap is driven in part by the ways in which Democratic cultural commitments to our most important social institution have eroded more than Republican commitments—especially on key marital values and virtues.”