October 6, 2024

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Trump wins the popular vote, Electoral College and Senate, securing mandate to govern in greatest comeback in political history

By Robert Romano

Against all odds, former President Donald Trump was reelected on Nov. 5, ousting Vice President Kamala Harris, winning the popular vote for the GOP for the first time since 2004, decisively winning the Electoral College and reclaiming the U.S. Senate, all as only the second former president to win reelection after Grover Cleveland did it in 1892 with non-consecutive terms in what can only be described as the greatest political comeback in American history.

Trump dodged bullets, prosecutions, convictions, censorship and overcame the historic incumbency advantage — first term incumbent parties usually win about two-thirds of the time, but not this time — able to capitalize on inflation outpacing incomes, wages and earnings for too long during the Biden-Harris administration as Americans paid the price at the grocery store and gas pump, more than 8 million illegal border crossings by illegal aliens who Trump promised to deport and endless foreign wars that threaten to spark a wider conflict or even nuclear war.

The Biden-Harris administration was unpopular, and Democrats lost major ground in very blue states that would normally constitute their majority in the national popular vote. In 2020, President Joe Biden won New York by 23.5 points, but on Nov. 5, Harris only won it by 10 points. In New Jersey, Biden won it by 16 points, but Harris only won it by 6 points. In Illinois, Biden won by 17 points, but Harris only won it by 4 points. In California, Biden won it by 29 points, but Harris is only leading it by 21 points.

And in red states, Trump built on his working and middle class coalition with his twin messages on trade and immigration. In 2020, Trump won Florida by 3.5 points, but in 2024, he won it by 13 points. In Texas, in 2020, Trump won it by 5.5 points, but in 2024, he won it by 14.6 points. In Ohio, Trump won it by 8 points, but in 2024, Trump won it by 11.5 points.

It’s like that everywhere, where Trump overperformed dramatically in blue areas and red areas, it didn’t matter, securing the first Republican win of the national popular vote, again, since 2004, currently leading decisively 51 percent to 47.5 percent. This is a crushing defeat for Democrats by modern standards.

In the Electoral College, Trump currently leads 277 to 226, with North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania putting Trump over the top, and with leads in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska, which, if they all come through, Trump could get up to 312. For Republicans that have struggled to put together Electoral College majorities the past 24 years, that is a landslide.

And polls once again were wrong, dramatically understating Trump’s support both nationally and in key battleground states as the so-called “shy” Trump voter showed to polls in the early vote and on Nov. 5 in droves in the one of the most shocking upsets in U.S. political history.

Swapping out the incumbent President Joe Biden for Harris, who was untested by the primaries and was unable to build her coalition in time for the election, might have been one of the greatest blunders in American political history.

All the signs were there that in hindsight make the outcome appear to have been obvious. Right-track, wrong-track polls, Trump leading Harris by double digits on the economy, immigration and foreign policy, Trump making historic inroads with Black, Hispanic and young Americans and even women. For Republicans, Trump has built the most diverse coalition since Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon.

As a result, Republicans have reclaimed the U.S. Senate, winning at least 52 seats with pickups in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Nevada too close to call. At the end of the day, Trump could get to 53, 54 or maybe even 55 seats.

The House of Representatives is too close to call at the moment, with massive implications to Trump’s proposed legislative agenda including on tax cuts, the budget and restructuring the federal government, but if Republicans keep the House, they can thank Trump for campaigning in those blue areas including New York, New Jersey, Illinois and elsewhere. That is certainly something to keep an eye on, but if it stays Republican, Trump will have to be mindful of the limited window of opportunity he will have before the 2026 midterms to deliver on his promises.

Either way, there are challenges ahead, with the U.S. on the brink of a potential recession with unemployment up almost 1.3 million since Dec. 2022. The economy may yet get a so-called soft landing, but nothing’s guaranteed, and so the economy will undoubtedly be top of mind for the President-Elect.

Trump has promised to usher in a new “golden age” in America, and with the inroads he has made in traditional Democratic constituencies, his victory in 2024 could signal a potential realignment in U.S. politics. But now comes the hard part—as if the election wasn’t hard enough—and that is to govern. A lot depends on how the remaining races in Congress shake out, but with the popular vote, Trump has a mandate that alluded Republicans for 20 years. Good luck, Mr. President, and congratulations to you, your family and your supporters. This was the greatest comeback in political history.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/11/trump-wins-the-popular-vote-electoral-college-and-senate-securing-mandate-to-govern-in-greatest-comeback-in-political-history/

Inside the Early Signs that Hinted at President Trump’s Massive Victory

By Manzanita Miller

After four long years, Americans strongly rejected the failed agenda foisted upon us by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and former President Donald J. Trump was declared the winner after surpassing the 270 electoral vote threshold with a historic win in Michigan.

As early as last weekend after early voting closed across much of the country, there were strong signals that Harris was sunk. 

First, Republicans made significant inroads in closing the early vote gap in battleground states before polls even opened for in-person voting on Tuesday.

While early voting is down significantly compared to 2020 – largely because there is no pandemic – the proportions of each party utilizing early voting methods have shifted rather substantially. Republicans are dominating a larger share of the early vote than they did four years ago.    

Data shows Republicans voted early in unprecedented numbers leading up to Election Day, with data from CNN and Catalist showing that across 27 states for which early voting data was available with party registration, Republicans nearly closed the early voting gap compared to 2020.

GOP voters cast 38 percent of early voting ballots while Democrats cast 40 percent according to L2 Political’s early vote tracker, but four years ago Democrats led in early voting by twelve points, 42 percent to 30 percent. This is a substantial closing of the gap.

In the highly contested battleground state of Pennsylvania, Republicans accounted for 33 percent of the early vote this year, a ten-point gain from 2020, while Democrats accounted for 56 percent of the early vote, ten points less than 2020.

Then there is North Carolina, where Republicans made up 33 percent of the early vote this year, up two points from 2020, and Democrats made up 32 percent, down three points from 2020.

GOP gains in early voting have been smaller in other battleground states, but nonetheless significant. Arizona saw a four-point increase in Republicans voting early compared to 2020, making up 41 percent of the early vote while Democrats saw a three-point decline compared to 2020, making up 33 percent.

In Nevada, Republicans made up 37 percent of the early vote this year, a one-point gain from 2020, while Democrats made up 34 percent, a four-point decline. 

Some analysts cautioned that Republican gains in the early vote could be a wash – meaning less Republicans would turn out on election day. That does not appear to be the case.

The argument that the GOP early vote would be a complete wash never really had legs when Republicans were broadly eclipsing Democrats in several states compared to the early vote spread four years ago. 

Second, there is strong evidence that a good portion of the early vote included new voters, a group Trump leads Harris with substantially.

According to analysis from NBC News Decision Desk, the number of new voters – those who did not vote in 2020  – cast before election day in battleground states exceeded the 2020 vote margin by which either Trump or Biden won each state in 2020.

In other words, swells of new voters who skipped the election in 2020 were reflected in the early vote totals, indicating a vast number of these early voters are entirely new to the electorate.

Pennsylvania’s early vote total included over 100,000 new voters who did not participate in 2020, and Biden won the state by less than 80,000 votes in 2020. The new voter number in early vote alone surpassed the margin by which Biden won Pennsylvania.

In Arizona, the early vote included over 80,000 new first-time voters, far exceeding the margin by which Biden won the state in 2020 – 10,457 votes. The vast swell of new voters skewed heavily Republican. Of the new votes cast, over 35,000 belonged to new Republicans while around 23,000 belonged to new Democrats.  

New voters tend to heavily favor Donald Trump compared to regular active voters – so much so that the New York Times concluded if every eligible voter voted, Trump would win. A New York Times analysis of active versus infrequent voters from this spring before Kamala Harris became the nominee, found that while Biden led among highly engaged voters, Trump led among Americans who vote infrequently.

Third, while virtually every mainstream outlet has gloated over the fact that there was already a strong gender gap emerging in the early vote data, the gap was slightly smaller than in 2020 according to analysis from CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.

The left has framed the entire election as a gender war in which women were portrayed as single-issue voters and Kamala Harris was painted as the last great hope for women to preserve abortion, and yet the gender gap did not increase in early voting. This was a warning sign that Harris was cooked.

According to longstanding historical data, not only are Democrats more likely to vote early, but women are also more likely to vote early than men are, and yet with Harris on the ballot, the early vote gender gap was smaller than it was when Biden was on the ballot.

Republicans came out and voted early in numbers that closed the early vote gap in battleground states, and in many states the first-time early vote exceeded the margin by which Biden won last time. The theory that Republicans who voted early would be “cancelled out” by lower turnout on election day proved to be false. In addition, although women are more likely to vote early, the gender gap in the early vote showed early signs that Harris was on the road to a loss.

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/11/inside-the-early-signs-that-hinted-at-president-trumps-massive-victory/

Americans Stood Up for America

By Rick Manning

Joe Biden was fond of calling this election “a battle for the soul of America” and he was right.

There was a stark contrast between Donald Trump and his America First agenda and the Kamala Harris agenda of increasing dependency through entitlements, open borders, the transsexualization of our children, and stomping out the last gasp of free market capitalism through her green agenda.

Standing against seemingly impossible odds, Donald Trump fought a year’s long battle for America and its people doing the impossible winning a majority of the votes cast nationwide by building a diverse, unique coalition together in a potentially transformational electoral coalition.

But ultimately, Donald Trump won the argument about who Americans want America to be.

Americans are the most generous people in the world, but we also want our government to care more about our well-being than that of those around the world who don’t like us very much.

Americans want their kids to have a better opportunity for their future than they had, and when that is threatened they fight back.

Americans don’t want their government engaging in a gun-wielding raid, because some pet squirrel got famous and an offended busybody alerted the authorities that someone was having fun somewhere and it must be stopped.

Americans want their government to leave them alone and let them take care of their families and responsibilities free from devastating price hikes caused by politicians wanting to get credit for handing out helicopter money that caused the problem.

Americans don’t want boys participating in girls’ sports. Americans in 2024 embraced women’s sports as a whole largely due to the Caitlin Clark phenomenon. Incredibly at this same time the federal government actively pushed for those same sports opportunities to be taken away by biological male participation in them.

Americans generally like one another, and don’t think their neighbor is “garbage” and deserving of persecution because of who they support for President.

Americans like Israel, and understand that Israel has a both an historic and religious right to exist as a Jewish state.

Americans like their internal combustion engine cars and don’t want the government to make them impossible to purchase in the future.

Americans want their sports teams to play sports, Hollywood to shut up and make good movies and their politicians to support criminal justice laws which are strict but compassionate, focusing upon those who commit crimes but not giving up on anyone’s future potential.

Americans are sick of jobs being shipped overseas and manufacturing plants being closed.

Americans are tired of being told what to do by elites who not only don’t respect them but cannot hide their contempt for them.

Americans want a leader who will be their champion around the world, as opposed to one who feels America owes the world an apology.

Americans rightfully believe that we live in the greatest country in the history of the world, and while it has gotten off track, it can be restored to a greater place than ever before.

Americans look at people of different colors at the workplace or in their neighborhood and see a fellow American, not a skin color.

Americans love their country and believe the best of each other, even their politicians, until proven wrong.

There was a battle for the soul of America on November 5, 2024, and America won.

Rick Manning is the President of Americans for Limited Government.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/11/americans-stood-up-for-america/