Daily News Brief

November 6, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Leaders from around the world this morning commended former President Donald Trump for his election win, a decisive political comeback in a contest that Trump called a “historic realignment” of American interests. In a victory speech early Wednesday, Trump vowed to deliver a “strong, safe, and prosperous America,” buoyed by Republicans regaining control of the U.S. Senate. Trump campaigned on pledges of sweeping changes to both domestic and foreign policy, including shakeups of the U.S. postures on trade, climate change, immigration, and the country’s involvement in conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Both Trump and his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris promised to address voters’ economic anxieties, but the anti-incumbent sentiment that has swept much of the world in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent inflation appeared to play to Trump’s favor. 

Rapid outpouring of comments from world leaders underscored Trump’s potential to reshape U.S. foreign policy. The head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Mark Rutte congratulated Trump and noted the alliance is spending more on defense, a response to Trump’s critiques in the past. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lauded the result as “history’s greatest comeback.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted that Trump’s commitment to “peace through strength” can “bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” while a Kremlin spokesperson said Russia will watch to see if Trump changes his tone as he takes office. Meanwhile, the FBI said yesterday that hoax bomb threats against polling places in battleground states appeared to originate from Russian email domains and were not credible. (Reuters, AP, NYT, BBC, X)

Analysis

“With Donald J. Trump’s sweeping election victory on Tuesday, the world is now preparing for another four years of unpredictability and ‘America first’ protectionism that could reset the ground rules of the global economy, empower autocrats and erase the assurance of American protection for democratic partners. Despite a lack of substantive foreign policy debate in the campaign, Mr. Trump has made several statements that—if turned into policy—would transform America’s relationship with both allies and adversaries,” the New York Times’ Damien Cave and Catherine Porter write. 

“Voters have reelected Donald Trump in great part out of dissatisfaction with the economy under President [Joe] Biden and nostalgia for the low inflation and prepandemic conditions of the former president’s first term,” the Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip writes. “Trump’s main economic tools will be the same as in that first term: tariffs and tax cuts. But there’s a difference. The tariffs he’s planning will be broader and higher, and the tax cuts more narrowly targeted.”

“[Trump’s] victory cements a fundamental realignment of American politics toward a conservative populism that began in 2016 and was thought to have been discarded with his defeat in 2020. His political movement is back and seemingly more durable than ever,” the BBC’s Anthony Zurcher writes.

The Council of Councils rounded up perspectives on the election’s implication for different world regions.

Check out the full collection of election analysis from CFR and Foreign Affairs. 

Middle East and North Africa

Netanyahu’s removal of Yoav Gallant comes after months of public disagreement between the two over the course of the conflict in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Gallant was a proponent within the Israeli government of a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza, a moderating voice in Israel’s war strategy, and a main interlocutor with the United States. Israel Katz will move from heading the foreign ministry to the defense ministry. (WSJ, NYT)

CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook discusses whether an Israel-Hamas cease-fire is still possible.

China/Saudi Arabia: China chose Saudi Arabia as the recipient of its first dollar-denominated sovereign bond in three years, which will be worth up to $2 billion. Beijing has sought to invest in Riyadh’s construction sector as its own has struggled. (FT)

Pacific Rim

Beijing filed a request on behalf of industrializing countries including Brazil, India, and South Africa to discuss “unilateral restrictive trade measures” at the impending UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan next week. The move is aimed at the European Union (EU), which is due to implement tariffs on imports that have high climate costs. EU officials have said in the past that the World Trade Organization is the proper forum for such discussions. (NYT) 

CFR’s Alice C. Hill and Priyanka Mahat lay out what else to expect at COP29 next week. 

Australia: The country canceled plans for a reported $4.6 billion defense satellite project with U.S. contractor Lockheed Martin, with Canberra saying it would seek out more “cost-effective” technologies. The move highlights budgetary tensions as Australia upgrades its military capabilities. (Nikkei)

South and Central Asia

Myanmar’s military leader is visiting China today for the first time since the junta took over in February 2021. Rebel forces’ advance in Myanmar in recent months has alarmed China, which has closed parts of the border and stifled goods flowing to the country. Meanwhile, a representative of Myanmar’s shadow government said at a joint press conference with rebel groups that India had begun to reach out to multiple stakeholders—including the rebels—in Myanmar for talks on the conflict. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

China/Pakistan: A security guard in Pakistan’s commercial hub of Karachi shot and injured two Chinese nationals yesterday. Beijing has raised concerns to Islamabad after a series of militant attacks on its nationals in recent years; police said a preliminary probe found yesterday’s incident was not linked to militancy. (AP)

Sub-Saharan Africa

The bilateral deal concluded a debt relief process that was agreed upon in March between Somalia and a group of wealthy creditor countries known as the Paris Club, Somalia’s finance minister said. (Bloomberg) 

Nigeria: The government freed 119 people who had been detained in anti-government protests in August and dropped charges against them. President Bola Tinubu had ordered charges against minors be dismissed. (Reuters) 

CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare looks at the myth of the “leaderless” African protest movement. 

Europe

The bill introduced in the United Kingdom (UK) legislature would make it illegal for people currently aged fifteen or under to ever buy cigarettes, which would be one of the most sweeping laws against smoking worldwide. It is expected to pass given support from the governing Labour Party’s parliamentary majority. (BBC, AP)

For Think Global Health, Sungkyu Lee considers how to advance tobacco control globally.

Germany: Authorities arrested eight people, including an elected official from the far-right AfD movement, who prosecutors accused of planning to seize parts of the country’s east and potentially conduct ethnic cleansing. Prosecutors said they were driven by Nazi ideology and had conducted urban warfare training. (Reuters, FT) 

Americas

The court dismissed an effort to strike down parts of the country’s contentious judicial overhaul to elect, rather than appoint, judges. Seven of the court’s eleven judges voted to pass the measure, failing to meet the special majority of eight justices needed for the case to be considered. (NYT)

Mexico: A caravan of around three thousand migrants departed Mexico yesterday for the United States border. (Reuters)

Council on Foreign Relations

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