Dear John,

It’s US Election Day. Over the span of the next few days, we’ll start to see US states declaring for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Given the potential for a close race, it’s unlikely that we’ll know who won when we wake up tomorrow. Factor in the anticipated legal challenges and recounts, and it could be quite a while indeed before the victor is declared.  

While we bite our nails in anticipation, it’s worth a look back at the challenges to democracy we’ve witnessed during this campaign cycle. Across Britain and the United States, the glaring issues we’ve been highlighting for years – notably dark money and disinformation – are growing more and more dangerous.

Here are five major challenges to democracy that our team picked up from the last few months of US Campaigning.

Record-smashing levels of cash in US politics:

Tech mogul and notable Trump ally Elon Musk offered to give away $1 million a day to random registered voters in swing-states, on the condition they signed a petition launched by his own Trump-aligned Political Action Committee (PAC). He’s reportedly contributed at least $133 million to support the former President’s efforts, and is allegedly in talks about heading up a Trump department for “government efficiency” (talk about a quid-pro-quo).

According to the dedicated campaigners at OpenSecrets (a US NGO focused on dark money), federal election spending this year is expected to breach $16 billion – an all-time record high. The UK saw a similar bump in donations and spending at our 2024 GE. Increasingly, it seems, our politics across the Atlantic are up for sale.

While Elon Musk may be the most flagrant example of an oligarch buying political clout (including potentially breaking election law with his multi-million dollar stunt), billionaires are funding US politics across the aisle. If you want to see which other billionaires have donated to both parties, check out OpenSecrets’ continuously updated searchable donor list.

Conspiracy Culture and “Stop The Steal” 2.0:

In numerous instances, conspiracy theories have originated from small anonymous accounts online and made their way up to the Republican party brass, reposted by congresspeople, officials, and both Donald Trump and JD Vance.

Whether it’s Haitian migrants accused of eating cats and dogs, or federal disaster relief workers accused of supporting illegal migrants, a litany of bizarre claims were promulgated by a social media machine that feeds on outrage. Trump and Vance seized on these opportunities, looking to stir division and uncertainty.

In the run-up to the election, the Republicans have also been using disinformation as a means to ultimately contest the result. Musk has spent months spreading conspiracies – completely unsubstantiated – about Democrats intentionally “importing” illegal migrants to swing-states in order to vote. Over the past few days, the BBC has reported on myriad false claims online about illegal migrants voting and widespread voter fraud. Should Kamala Harris win, these claims will likely be the ammunition behind “Stop The Steal” 2.0.

Deepfakes and Doctored Images:

Over this past weekend, the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) warned of a series of fake videos circulating widely on social media. Featuring messages about civil unrest and an impending “civil war”, as well as numerous false claims about Kamala Harris, these videos purport to be from traditional news sources. In some cases, they’re designed to appear as reports from official government agencies.

Add that on top of pre-existing “deepfakes”,  shared videos ostensibly depicting Harris, Trump and other politicians. Trump has shared fake images of pop-star Taylor Swift  endorsing him and of Kamala Harris addressing what appears to be a communist rally. Not only do these images and videos misinform – they call into question the validity of any real videos shared as well.

A BBC investigation showed that users on X – a hot spot for AI-generated deepfakes and doctored images – are making thousands of dollars by the social media site to spread this sort of false and misleading content. While most sites allow users to profit from content, X in particular has no rules whatsoever pertaining to misinformation, meaning that superspreaders make a killing by undermining our information environment.

Bias and Intimidation in the Legacy Media:

Despite the fact that Trump and the Republicans routinely accuse the legacy media of being pro-Harris, American media as a whole has proven to be incapable of scrutinising the candidates, outlining the facts, and calling a spade a spade. The US media’s predisposition towards sensation and spectacle has served to amplify Trump’s campaigning and led to a failure to hold him accountable, as it did for him in 2016 (and as the UK media did for Boris Johnson).

While pro-Trump broadcast outlets like Fox News, NewsMax, and One America News continuously peddle the former President’s conspiracy theories, other traditionally “liberal” outlets like the New York Times utterly fail to hold him accountable. Others still, like the Washington Post (recently purchased by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos) and the Los Angeles Times have made historic decisions not to endorse a candidate for the first time in their histories. Are they afraid of retribution in the case of a Trump victory?

As in the UK, the US media is not serving its proper role as the fourth estate. Trump and Harris have both been under-scrutinised, and Trump’s ludicrous comments are all too often left floating rather than being challenged.

First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) and the Electoral College:

While we already know that FPTP voting produced the most disproportional Parliament of all time at our last UK General Election, America’s system is even more pernicious. As we outlined in one of our recent US elections mailouts , George W. Bush is the only President since 1988 to ever win the popular vote. Two of the last four US presidents were chosen by a minority of the population. If Trump wins, it will almost certainly be the same.

The effect of the Electoral College is that few peoples’ votes actually matter. Voter suppression is easier and more damaging. Third parties don’t stand a chance, and often act only as “spoilers”.  Just a few swing-states determine the outcome. 

Both the UK and the US have record levels of distrust and dissatisfaction with politics. They’re both well past due for a democratic update.

If one thing is clear from two major elections in the US and UK this year, it’s that our systems are simply no longer up for the task. As we await the election results over the next few days, we’ll continue looking at the lessons we can learn from across the pond to safeguard our own politics from dark money and disinformation.

All the best,

Matt

Matt Gallagher

Communications Officer

Open Britain Team