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It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN? (SPOILER: I DON’T KNOW)
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
Happy Election Day, friends.
True, the path here has not been the happiest for our country. We remain a nation divided, anxious and conflicted about direction and identity.
But we have made it here, folks. And it is, at last, time to finish voting, end the ads and learn what Americans have decided.
So what will happen? (As family, friends, sources and viewers ask me repeatedly these days.)
- First, it is close everywhere. Anything could happen.
- But, one conclusion: We seem headed, again, toward divided government.
This may seem obvious, but it is also important. Whatever results delight or disappoint you, this core feature of our democracy is irrepressible in the modern age.
Other than that, I do not know what will happen. But here is what I’ve gathered from sources and my own deep-dive looks at the data.
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Photo by Jonathan Drake/Reuters
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The House
Republicans and Democrats alike say the battle is quite close.
MORE: Follow our live House map
But my best sources in both parties give the edge to Democrats taking over the House. Democrats think they could end up with 220 to 224 seats in the House. Republicans are hoping to keep a bare majority.
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The Senate
Democrats need multiple minor miracles to keep control.
But, they say, that is possible. (I’m skeptical.) But here’s how. A top source, involved in the Senate battle, points to volunteer surges in Montana, a state that they correctly add is hard to poll.
MORE: Follow our live Senate map
The Democratic hope is that Jon Tester holds on there, as does Sherrod Brown in Ohio. But, at this moment, sources in both parties admit that both are in tough spots.
Top Republican sources believe they will end up with 52 seats in the Senate. Some Democrats admit that is very possible.
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The White House
Anyone projecting confidence about what will happen in the race for the presidency either has a secret time machine or is someone you cannot trust. (By the way, if you have a secret time machine, please contact me, I would like to meet Chester Arthur.)
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Watch the segment in the player above.
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That said, about a month ago, momentum clearly was moving in Trump’s direction. He had a wind at his back.
But for the past 10 days, that weather pattern shifted and it has felt like there was a clear, but consistent breeze for Harris. Among my sources, Democrats and Harris team members feel more confident in this moment than Republicans and Trump team members.
It likely comes down to one state: Pennsylvania, where both teams see reason for hope.
MORE: Follow our live Electoral College calculator
One note for Harris though. A top Republican source told me yesterday that they’ve seen polling showing an unexpected group of voters in eastern Pennsylvania: voters splitting their ticket between Harris and the Republican Senate candidate, Dave McCormick.
That would be good news for Harris as well as Senate Republicans. Bad news for Trump and Senate Democrats (especially veteran Sen. Bob Casey).
That is the kind of breeze I am talking about. And Democrats sense it is growing in strength.
But we truly do not know.
I think of it this way: As I write this, the morning of this Election Day, the race is not decided. Those who show up today will do that. |
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More on politics from our coverage:
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HOW WE’RE COVERING ELECTION NIGHT
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Watch PBS News’ special coverage of Election 2024 in the player above.
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By Erica R. Hendry, @ericarhendry
Managing Editor, Digital
By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage
Senior Editor, Digital
PBS News will have special coverage around the clock and across platforms, starting election morning.
There’s a live fact check from PolitiFact, who will focus on voting, any issues or irregularities, the closing of the polls, and fact checks and stories on claims about the election results.
At noon, live streaming coverage begins, highlighting our election stories from throughout the year. Watch for live updates from our correspondents in the field, starting at 3 p.m. EST.
We’ll also have live ASL thanks to interpreters from DPAN.TV — you can watch here.
We’ll run live updates on our website, starting at 5:30 p.m. EST. Think of it as your cheat sheet to the biggest developments, race calls, latest insights and updates from our team of correspondents in the field.
The News Hour broadcast will begin at 6 p.m. EST.
Starting at 7, anchors Amna Nawaz and Geoff Bennett will host on-air special analysis with a group of panelists and special guests, including:
When polls close, correspondent Lisa Desjardins will be at our live results wall, breaking down results for president, Senate, House and ballot initiatives with real-time graphics.
We’ll also hear from other PBS News correspondents in the field for election night:
We’ll stream significant speeches from candidates and any statements from the presidential campaigns.
Results in real time
You can keep track of results with our interactive live results, which you can sort by state or overall balance of power. See where the race to 270 electoral votes stands with our Electoral College calculator.
It’s worth noting here that it took days to determine the winner of the 2020 election. It’s possible and not unusual or abnormal that counting ballots will extend beyond election night. This is also true for down-ballot races, including those that will determine control of the House.
The morning after the election, digital video producer Deema Zein will host a live chat with Desjardins starting at 11 a.m. EST, highlighting major takeaways and taking viewer questions.
We’ll run our stream and live results until winners are called.
Check your local listings to find the PBS station near you, or watch online here.
You can also follow the PBS News’ coverage on YouTube, X, Facebook and TikTok, and see highlights on our Instagram.
A ‘MONUMENT TO THE UNELECTED’ |
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An art installation in Scottsdale, Arizona, displays signs from 58 failed presidential campaigns on the front yard of a private residence. Photo by Lena Jackson/PBS News
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By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage
Senior Editor, Digital
Lena Jackson, @lenaijackson
Deputy Senior Producer
“I Voted” stickers may get all the glory, but another symbol of Election Day has been sprouting up.
Campaign signs adorn yards, roadways and other areas outside “no electioneering” boundaries at the polls. (They also get stolen.)
Artist Nina Katchadourian’s “Monument to the Unelected” is an ode to the enthusiasm-through-advertising expressed in the build-up to an election. The installation is made up of 58 signs of all the candidates who ran for president and lost.
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Photos by Lena Jackson/PBS News
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Remember “Choose Hughes in 1916”? (Probably not.) “Parker Davis ‘04” was the Democratic ticket that lost to Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. Henry Clay, whose name is repeated in the installation, unsuccessfully ran for president three times. The signage underscores the “blank spots” in U.S. history, the artist said. Once the votes are cast, a winner is declared, and the memories of the losing campaign fade.
Now on display on the front lawn of a private residence in Scottsdale, Arizona, a 59th sign representing the losing campaign will be added to the installation after Tuesday’s election.
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage
Senior Editor, Digital
There have been 10 presidents in U.S. history, who tried and failed to get reelected after serving one term.
One of them, former President Donald Trump, lost in 2020, though he could become the only other president in history, after Grover Cleveland, to win a nonconsecutive term.
One of these presidents had a difficult time convincing voters he could address the problems of the Great Depression after the stock market crashed. On the campaign trail, this president’s opponent compared his administration to the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: “Destruction, Delay, Deceit and Despair.”
Our question: Who was the losing candidate?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: What was the No. 1 thing that Americans feared most this year?
The answer: Government corruption. According to the Chapman Survey of American Fears, more than 65 percent of U.S. adults said they feared corrupt government officials, topping the list. The principal investigator for the annual survey has said that people’s interpretation of this corruption will vary. Other fears that rounded out the top 5: Loved ones becoming seriously ill, cyberterrorism, loved ones dying, and Russia using nuclear weapons.
Congratulations to our winners: Ann Brownson and Steven Greek!
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week. |
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