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By Celinda Lake and Christine Matthews | The gender gap may reach record levels in 2024 and, depending on who turns out to vote, it could determine the outcome of the presidential election. The latest Fox News poll finds that enthusiasm is highest among white college-educated women and lowest among white non-college educated men—a finding that benefits Democrats.
The successful formula for Democrats is clear: Win women by more than you lose men. The formula for Republicans is the reverse.
There is another key dynamic here, however: Married couples often vote the same way, in part, because you choose a partner who shares your values. But, increasingly, even married couples find themselves at odds in an election where one side appears to be messaging primarily to men and the other sending strong signals to women.
Historically, a not insignificant segment of married women have told us that they are either not as interested or attuned to politics and elections as their husbands and may turn to them for cues on how to vote. And some men are only more than happy to oblige. Writers such as Rebecca Traister and Lyz Lenz have reported on women being intimidated by their husbands’ views on how they voted. This year, an 81-year-old Georgia woman voted for the very first time after a long marriage to a man—now deceased—who told her not to vote because her vote would not matter.
Researcher Marte Strom has shown that the male dominance model of political opinions and votes applies most to working class individuals. The challenge for Democrats then is to keep non-college educated women from voting the same way as their spouses. White non-college educated men are overwhelmingly supportive of Trump and are a key part of his base, and we are also seeing more non-college educated Hispanic men trending Republican this year too. White non-college educated women typically vote Republican, although by less dramatic margins than men, while Hispanic non-college women may prove to be a critical cohort for Democrats if they can offset anticipated losses with the men.
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