What to watch — and what to avoid — on election night

Well, we made it. It’s Election Day.

Today could go down as one of the most important days in the history of our country as the nation decides between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Then again, as we saw in 2020, Election Day is a misnomer. We should change it to Election Week, seeing as how it’s possible, and probably likely, that we won’t know who the next president will be tonight. Or even tomorrow. Or maybe not even the day after.

Still, starting today, the national networks and cable news networks will go with wall-to-wall coverage, many of them until a winner is declared.

Consider this a mini viewer’s guide to election week coverage.

I’m not talking about where you can watch it. Just turn on your TVs and start channel surfing and you’ll run into tons of election coverage.

This is not about where to watch. But how to watch.

And helping me out is PolitiFact’s Amy Sherman, who wrote a smart piece this week: “Don’t fall for these false claims as you await the 2024 election results.”

I asked Sherman about it and she told me on Monday, “On election night, every word matters.”

For example?

Sherman said, “Avoid words such as ‘slow’ when speaking about the pace of election results. Slow according to whom? Pennsylvania’s law doesn’t allow local election officials to open up mail ballots until 7 a.m. Election Day. So that doesn’t mean that election officials work ‘slower’ in that state, including its Democratic urban areas, than, say, Florida, where they started that process weeks earlier.”

Still, viewers desperate to see their candidate win will cling to every word, every hint and every claim, whether it’s true or not.

Sherman, a veteran of covering elections, writes of some of the claims you are bound to see late tonight and in the days ahead. They include:

Claims about thousands of dead voters. This is called the zombie vote, you know, like the walkers on “The Walking Dead” somehow coming back from the dead to cast votes. Sherman wrote, “It’s a zombie claim we see during every election cycle: Huge numbers of dead people are voting! And they are all Democrats! Neither is true.”

Claims that ballot errors and election site mishaps equal fraud. Sherman wrote, “Although election officials spend years preparing for presidential elections, errors sometimes occur. They are not a sign of fraud.”

Claims that there were thousands of fake votes in Pennsylvania. Again, not true.

Claims about machines flipping votes. This became a favorite talking point of Republicans in 2020. The false claim was that voters cast their ballots for Donald Trump, but faulty or rigged machines flipped those votes to Joe Biden. This is false. Let’s not forget how Dominion Voting Systems collected a $787.5 million check because such claims were made on Fox News.

Rampant noncitizen voting. Trump and many of his advocates claim that Democrats have made it so non-U.S. citizens are voting. Sherman wrote, “That’s not happening. Federal law bans noncitizens from voting in federal elections. Noncitizens sometimes land on voter rolls, often by accident when getting driver's licenses. However, voting by noncitizens in federal elections is rare.”

Claims that election officials rip up or trash ballots. Sherman wrote, “Claims in 2020 about large numbers of ballots found in the trash were either made up or were about spoiled ballots that were legally destroyed.”

Two more false claims: claims that election officials sneak in “ballot dumps” late at night and claims that mass voter fraud in 2020 affected the election’s outcome.

But here’s the claim that you’re most likely to hear tonight: Claims of early victory.

This is straight out of Trump’s 2020 playbook. He looked at the voting tally late on election night and, because he was ahead in many states, he declared victory. The problem was, votes were still being tabulated. That didn’t matter to Trump, who claimed essentially that voting should stop. That’s kind of like stopping a football game at halftime.

Sherman wrote, “There is no state or federal law that says vote counting must stop a few hours after the polls close. Election officials would have violated laws if they simply stopped counting legitimate ballots.”

Read Sherman’s story. And remember what she wrote as you watch the coverage tonight, tomorrow and in the days ahead.

And Sherman told me to pass along this advice: “If you are stressed out and need a fun break, I recommend X posts by Georgia’s Gabriel Sterling because he combines useful data, debunking no matter the person’s party affiliation, AND fun gifs.”

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When will we know?

So when, exactly, will we know who the next president will be?

Will we know late tonight? Early tomorrow morning? Later in the week?

In 2020, although Joe Biden seemed well on his way to victory, it wasn’t until Saturday — four days after Election Day — that The Associated Press and other news organizations declared him the winner.

And not knowing for a few days might be stressful, but it doesn’t mean anything is wrong.

PolitiFact’s Amy Sherman writes, “Not knowing all the results on election night is normal. Here's why.”

The Washington Post’s Patrick Marley and Amy Gardner have a good roundup of what the timeline could look like this week.

It’s all likely going to come down to the swing states. Every state is different in how they count the various ways to vote, including same-day, mail-in, early and absentee votes. Let’s go through them.

• Pennsylvania: Just like 2020, because of when mail-in and absentee ballots are counted, it could be several days before we know if Harris or Trump won the Keystone State.
• Arizona: Again, it could take days before all the votes are tabulated in Arizona.
• Nevada: A state where mail-in ballots are high could take days. The Post writes, “Most states require ballots to be returned by Election Day, but Nevada counts mail ballots without a postmark that arrive up to three days after Election Day and those with a postmark up to four days after Election Day. That creates uncertainty on when the results will be known, especially in a close election. The second biggest day for receiving mail ballots in Nevada is typically the day after the election.”
• In 2020, Georgia was called for Biden on Friday. The Post reports that election officials are expecting a quicker count this time. How much quicker? We don’t know.
• Michigan: Most reports say Michigan will be able to declare a winner by Wednesday.
• Wisconsin: In 2020, Wisconsin was called for Biden on Wednesday afternoon. So the expectation is the same timeline this time around.
• North Carolina: This state generally counts votes quickly. The Post writes, “Because of damage from Hurricane Helene, some precincts will have to call their results into election offices instead of delivering computer memory sticks to them. This could slow the reporting of results in some counties.”

All of this is, of course, subject to change.

The bottom line is that, just like 2020, it could take several days before we know who won. And that doesn’t take into account recounts or legal challenges.

As FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich and Amina Brown wrote, “Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5 — but that doesn’t mean we’ll know who won the election on that date. With each passing election, more and more Americans are casting mail-in ballots, which take longer to count than in-person votes because they need to be opened and verified. That means that finding out the winner on election night may be a thing of the past.”

The 538 story looks at every state — when the polls close and the timing of the results.

On strike

One of the more intriguing things to follow on election night (and the days after) is The New York Times’ “election needle,” which uses statistical analysis of the votes coming in and those still outstanding to predict, at any given moment, who will win.

Except this year, the needle could be on strike. Well, the people that run the needle, that is.

My Poynter colleague, Angela Fu, reports, “Tech workers at The New York Times walked off the job early Monday morning and will continue to strike until they reach a contract agreement with the company, a process that could stretch through Election Day and its aftermath. The Times Tech Guild’s approximately 650 members include engineers, project and product managers, data analysts and designers whose work supports the Times’ digital operations including its website, apps and ‘election needle.’ Roughly 95% voted to authorize a strike in September.”

Fu has all the details about the negotiations.

Senior software engineer and union shop steward Kait Hoehne said, “We are demonstrating our labor power by doing this, and it is a moment during which our labor is very visible. We are working around the clock to keep the site up, to keep all of our services running. So this was our best chance to make it very clear what our contributions to the company are and why we matter and why we deserve a fair contract.”

Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoades Ha wrote in an emailed statement that the company wants to reach a fair contract, and that the Times will continue to cover the election. She added, “We’re in one of the most consequential periods of coverage for our readers and have robust plans in place to ensure that we are able to fulfill our mission and serve our readers. While we respect the union’s right to engage in protected actions, we’re disappointed that colleagues would strike at this time, which is both unnecessary and at odds with our mission.”

There’s more …

Poynter’s Angela Fu also reports, “In Baltimore, more than 30 journalists at the Baltimore Sun Guild are participating in a weeklong byline strike that started Sunday. Stories penned by these reporters will be attributed to ‘Baltimore Sun Staff’ to signal to readers that staff are displeased with the paper’s management.

And here’s yet another item from my colleague, Angela Fu:

New York Times surpasses 11 million subscribers as it and The Athletic report a quarterly profit

The New York Times surpassed 11 million subscribers and ended its third quarter in the black, the company announced Monday. 

During the quarter ending Sept. 30, the Times grew its adjusted operating profit 16.1% to $104.2 million, with much of that growth coming from digital subscription revenue. The Times added 260,000 digital subscribers to bring its total number of subscribers to 11.09 million. Nearly half of those subscribers pay for access to multiple Times products, which include nytimes.com, sports site The Athletic, product recommendations site Wirecutter and the Cooking and Games verticals. 

“Our results in the quarter and all year show that we’re firing on all cylinders across the portfolio. We’ve been very, very focused on two things, and I would say both are going well. One is getting our news product and the rest of the portfolio to drive very strong … subscriber engagement,” Times CEO Meredith Kopit Levien said during an earnings call Monday. “Secondly, and this is kind of a newer focus this year, we have been intently focused on getting the lifestyle products to begin to be more powerful funnels for the bundle (subscription).”

The Times reported $640.2 million in total revenue, a 7% increase from the same period last year. The company grew both subscription and advertising revenue, even as some advertisers have continued to avoid “certain hard news topics,” Kopit Levien noted.

For the first time since its acquisition by the Times in 2022 for $550 million, The Athletic reported a quarterly profit. It made $2.6 million last quarter, up from a $7.9 million loss during the same period last year. The Times attributed the improvement to higher subscription and “other” revenues.

“The Athletic is already an important component of our bundle offering in more deeply engaging subscribers,” Kopit Levien said. “We continue to be pleased with the overall economic performance and direction of The Athletic.” 

Kopit Levien also highlighted the company’s investments in its audio and video offerings. Those changes include paid subscriptions for several Times podcasts on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, a new weekly podcast from Wirecutter and increased availability of articles read by automated voice. 

Operating costs at the Times increased 5.4% to $563.5 million. The company noted that those costs include $4.6 million in litigation costs stemming from its lawsuit against Microsoft and OpenAI. The Times sued both companies last year, alleging that they had violated copyright law by using Times content without permission. 

Hours before the Times reported its third-quarter earnings and fourth-quarter guidance, unionized tech workers at the company went on strike. Executive vice president and chief financial officer William Bardeen said on the call that while the strike’s effects will depend on “further developments,” the company had known such a work stoppage would be a possibility. The forecasts published in the Times’ Monday report incorporate “current best estimates.”

“We’ve known this was a possibility and have prepared for a range of scenarios,” Bardeen said. “We have a track record of working effectively with unions and continue to aim for a fair contract.”

During the call, Times executives avoided directly answering a question about whether the company had benefited from the recent controversies at The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times. Both outlets have experienced a wave of subscription cancellations after they declined to endorse a presidential candidate. Instead, readers appear to be redirecting their support toward outlets that have made endorsements, like The Guardian and The Philadelphia Inquirer. (The New York Times endorsed Kamala Harris in September.) 

“We take no joy in watching any other quality, independent journalism institution go through anything difficult,” Kopit Levien said. “We are laser-focused on our own strategy and our own growth trajectory, and we expect we’ll continue to attract subscribers from all sorts of places for all sorts of reasons. I’ll leave it there.”

New York Times stock was trading at $52.45 a share Monday afternoon, down 7.7% from Friday’s close.

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Poynter recently brought together a wide array of media experts, leaders and thinkers to discuss the state of the news media industry and themes. You can find the results in Poynter’s recently published OnPoynt report, which highlights current industry trends in areas such as local news and content creators, misinformation and AI innovations. 

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Media tidbits

• In his Status media newsletter, Oliver Darcy has a good list of “​​The 27 Most Consequential Media Figures of the 2024 Election.”
• The New Yorker staff with 25 stunning moments of the 2024 presidential campaign, as told by the people who witnessed them up close: “The Election Season That Fell Out of a Coconut Tree.”
• The Washington Post’s Maura Judkis talks to those who are avoiding the news today: “Hypnosis? Colonoscopy? What some people will do to avoid Election Day.”
• Michele Norris — who resigned in protest from The Washington Post after the paper’s owner, Jeff Bezos, blocked the editorial board’s planned endorsement for president — has joined MSNBC as a senior contributing editor.
• The New York Times’ Katie Robertson with “The Daily Beast Tries to Claw Its Way Back to Relevance.”
• Also from The New York Times, Elisabeth Egan with “How Uvalde’s Newspaper Kept Going, Despite Unimaginable Loss.”
• The Athletic’s Andrew Marchand and Scott Dochterman with “Inside the decades-long struggle that made the Caitlin Clark phenomenon possible.”

Hot type

The great music producer and writer Quincy Jones has died. He was 91. Here are some of the remembrances:

• Here is Ben Ratliff’s piece for The New York Times.
• Here is Tim Greiving’s piece for The Washington Post.
• The New York Times’ Wesley Morris with “Quincy Jones Orchestrated the Sound of America.”
• The Associated Press’ Maria Sherman with “Remembering Quincy Jones: 10 career-spanning songs to celebrate his legacy.”
• Billboard’s Trevor Anderson with “Quincy Jones’ 20 Biggest Hit Songs on the Billboard Hot 100.”
• CNN remembers the musical legend in photos.

More resources for journalists

• It’s time to apply for the Leadership Academy for Women in Media.
• Our OnPoynt report offers a forward-minded look at the state of journalism and the news industry.
• Manage big responsibilities without direct reports? Try Lead With Influence.

Have feedback or a tip? Email Poynter senior media writer Tom Jones at [email protected].