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Using round numbers...
1. Our early vote/MIB for Republicans is up ~10% this year compared to 2020.
2. Dem's is down 21%.
3. I ran 3 different scenarios accounting for different levels of IN-PERSON voter turnout: low, moderate, and the average of 2016 and 2020 turnout.
4. The concerns:
#1 What portion of the 10% increase in Rep MIB are low propensity voters versus high propensity voters just voting early? My indication is that it's mostly just a shift in votes from tomorrow to earlier.
#2 What portion of Dem's MIB decline will show up tomorrow at the polls instead + illegals voting + shenanigans occurring like suitcases under tables coming out.
#3 Did Trump's campaign do enough to convince Independent voters to vote for him this time? In 2020, they overwhelmingly voted for Biden. We must hit on all cylinders tomorrow.
We have no margin for error.
Turnout is key.
Calling your low propensity voting cousin and getting him out to vote is key (and should have ALWAYS been the strategy... not registering ppl)
See fraud? Take out your phone and make them famous.
I'll see y’all on the other side in the morning. Blessings!
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