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Fighting For Faith, Family & Freedom
Monday, November 4, 2024
To: Friends & Supporters
From: Gary Bauer
Poll Position
Multiple media outlets released their final pre-election polls over the last 48 hours. All showed an extremely close race. The consistency of the results seemed strange to data analyst Nate Silver.
So, he “ran the numbers” and found that the odds of so many polls falling within the same range are astronomical. In other words, Silver is concerned that the polling is off yet again.
Now, with that caveat in mind, here are the results of the 10 most recent nationwide polls going into Election Day.
- NBC News -- Trump 49% Harris 49%
- New York Post -- Trump 49% Harris 49%
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TIPP -- Trump 49% Harris 48%
- Emerson -- Trump 49% Harris 49%
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ABC News -- Trump 46% Harris 49%
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Atlas Intel -- Trump 50% Harris 48%
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Yahoo News -- Trump 48% Harris 49%
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Morning Consult -- Trump 47% Harris 49%
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Forbes/Harris X -- Trump 49% Harris 51%
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Rasmussen -- Trump 48% Harris 46%
Harris leads in four polls, Trump leads in three, and they are tied in three.
There was another bizarre result over the weekend from a state that wasn’t expected to be competitive. The final Des Moines Register poll found Harris up three points in Iowa. Four years ago, Trump won Iowa by eight points.
Has there really been an 11-point swing in the state? Not if you believe the results of the latest Emerson College poll, which found Trump leading by 10 points.
So, what’s the lesson from all of this? You can’t trust the polls.
The only poll that matters is the one that will take place tomorrow!
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!
Don’t Get Complacent
Just because your state always goes Democrat or Republican, don’t assume that you don’t have to vote. You just don’t know what will happen.
I’m sure Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would be happy with an Electoral College win. But it is also very important to win the popular vote. When conservatives win the Electoral College without the popular vote, the left says they have no real mandate and we should abolish the Electoral College. And to many Americans, such a result seems unfair.
So, even if your state is deep Red or deep Blue, don’t make the mistake of missing your opportunity to vote. Don’t neglect your responsibility to vote. Make time to vote and get it done.
The Early Vote
Many Republicans are celebrating that they have done well in early voting this year. But just because many Republicans voted early does not mean the GOP is guaranteed to win. It depends on who those Republican voters are.
If they are the same voters who would normally vote on Election Day, Republicans haven’t gained anything. They just moved their votes from one day to another.
However, if they are “low propensity” or unlikely voters that the Trump campaign inspired to vote early, that would be a good sign. But there’s no way of knowing for sure.
Now, what is revealing is that Democrats are disappointed in their early vote totals. Early voting rates in some Georgia Democrat strongholds are below the state average.
Initial reports indicate that black voter turnout in North Carolina may be down as much as 10%. And the Democrat percentage of the early vote in Pennsylvania is down 10 points compared to 2020.
The situation is bad enough that Democrats are launching a last-minute ad blitz to boost turnout.
Elections Have Consequences
I still hear the left-wing media insisting that Joe Biden won a “landslide victory” last time and that it’s crazy to question the election results. Let me remind you of a few facts:
• Joe Biden only won Arizona by 10,457 votes.
• Joe Biden only won Georgia by 11,779 votes.
• Joe Biden only won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes.
Less than 43,000 votes spread across three states decided the 2020 election. If 50,000 more voters had turned out in total in those states, Trump would have been president the last four years.
He would have filled a fourth Supreme Court vacancy.
Vladimir Putin would not be in Ukraine.
The October 7th massacre in Israel would not have happened.
The disastrous and humiliating retreat from Afghanistan would not have occurred.
Our country would not have been invaded by millions of illegal aliens.
Small Things Matter
Kamala Harris interrupted her flight on the way to Michigan so she could be in New York City to appear in Saturday Night Live’s opening segment. She was on for 90 seconds. Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, who is up for reelection tomorrow, was also on the show. Their opponents, Donald Trump and Hung Cao, were not given the same opportunity.
According to Brendan Carr, a commissioner on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), that is a violation of the “Equal Time Rule.”
NBC reportedly gave Donald Trump a 90-second ad during a NASCAR race yesterday. I am not aware of the network doing anything for Hung Cao.
This is why elections matter. The left controls the FCC. Once they control something, the law is no longer equally applied. It is applied in ways that guarantee the left remains in power.
Why did Saturday Night Live think they could get away with this? Because the FCC just violated its own rules and gave George Soros the ability to buy a controlling stake in more than 200 radio stations.
Could Harris’s appearance on Saturday Night Live affect the race? See the item above. Approximately 5 million people watch Saturday Night Live. Five million viewers versus 43,000 votes that decided the 2020 election. So, yes, it can affect the election.
Perfect Isn’t The Standard
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley published an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday urging Americans to support Donald Trump. Her column is titled, “Trump Isn’t Perfect, but He’s the Better Choice.” Perfect is an impossible standard.
Is Haley perfect? Was Mitt Romney perfect? Was George W. Bush perfect? There’s never been a perfect candidate. Haley seems to be saying that Trump is not what Republicans wanted, but he’s better than the alternative.
You still don’t have it right, Nikki.
Having been involved in the conservative movement for decades, I believe Donald Trump has drawn in more new people to the Republican Party than any candidate since Ronald Reagan. The fact that Haley and many others still don’t get it shows what kind of battle there will be for what is left of the GOP if Trump doesn’t win tomorrow.
Media Malfeasance
Polling clearly shows that many Americans don’t trust the so-called “mainstream media.” But many leftists think the “mainstream media” are too conservative. Yet in spite of the huge trust deficit, the media still have an incredible ability to temporarily confuse millions of Americans.
For three plus years, virtually every story about Kamala Harris was how she was lazy, impossible to work for, historically unpopular, and needed to be dumped from the ticket. But as soon as Joe Biden stepped aside, the media made it seem like Harris walked on water.
In no time at all, she erased the polling deficit Democrats had under Biden. But as the weeks went by, that new polish began to wear off. Right now, the election appears to be nip and tuck, mostly because of what the media were able to do.
Here’s an example of how the biased media work.
Trump held a historic rally in Madison Square Garden. Hours before he spoke, some comedian makes a joke about Puerto Rico’s trash problem, which is a very real issue.
Immediately, the media cooperated with the Harris campaign to make it “a rally of hate” and a “Nazi rally” after a comedian made a joke about trash problems in Puerto Rico. But it may have moved enough voters in critical areas to make the difference.
Meanwhile, Harris held a rally in Milwaukee over the weekend featuring a performance by rapper GloRilla. She performed a profanity-laced song all about a woman having sex with other women’s boyfriends. But there’s not a word about that in the “mainstream media.”
This was a rally for young people and blacks. Is that song a sign of Harris’s support for “strong, intelligent women”? How does that song explain what black voters want?
Weeks ago, Harris was worried about black voter turnout. So, to attract more black support she proposed making drugs easier to get in America.
Tune In To Family Talk
Please tune in to Dr. James Dobson’s Family Talk radio show. On today’s broadcast, Dr. Dobson, former Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, and I discuss the critical importance of this election and the urgent need for men and women of faith to be engaged Christian citizens. These are not normal times, and this is not a normal election.
You can find station listings here. You can listen online here.
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