November 4, 2024 Dear John, As we approach the critical moments of this year’s U.S. elections, immigration continues to dominate discussions, with significant shifts in public sentiment and vastly different policy agendas on offer. A new Migration Policy Institute (MPI) short read, offering first-ever projections of the U.S. working-age population by immigrant generation through 2040, sheds light on the evolving role that immigration could play in shaping the U.S. demographic landscape and future workforce. Even as the public is expressing growing support for lower levels of immigration, the old-age dependency ratio—the proportion of seniors relative to the working-age population—is expected to rise from 29 percent in 2023 to 37 percent by 2040. With an aging population and declining birthrates, there will be intensifying pressure on a smaller number of workers to support the growing number of retirees. Currently, immigrants and their U.S.-born children account for nearly 27 percent of the U.S. civilian population, or slightly under 91 million people. Working-age immigrants themselves were 35.4 million people as of 2020. The total number of working-age immigrants could vary significantly based on future immigration policy. Drawing on four scenarios of net international migration developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, the MPI researchers find that the working-age immigrant population could experience a sharp drop to 18.5 million by 2040 under a zero immigration scenario; fall to 31 million under a low immigration future; hit 37.3 million if immigration levels remain at their current level; or rise as high as 46.7 million under a high immigration scenario. The entry into the future U.S. workforce of the U.S.-born children of today’s immigrants will play an even greater role. Regardless of future immigration policy directions, the growth in the second-generation adult population (the U.S.-born children of immigrants) will continue. MPI estimates that between 2020 and 2040, the adult second generation will increase 64 percent, from 20.4 million to 33.4 million. Without this growth, the U.S.-born working-age population would shrink by 20 percent, exacerbating the challenges posed by an aging population. “In the context of today’s declining birth rates and population aging, significantly limiting immigration would rapidly shrink the U.S. labor pool, with effects on productivity, the health of programs such as Social Security and Medicare, and more,” MPI analysts Jeanne Batalova, Michael Fix, and Julia Gelatt write. For a more in-depth look at these findings, including an interactive data tool on projections of the immigrant working-age population by immigration scenario, please visit: www.migrationpolicy.org/news/immigrant-origin-population-2040. | 
