A new poll has thrown the final hours of the election into a tizzy

It was a relaxing Saturday. While Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were making their final arguments to the country, many Americans likely were taking a deep weekend breath before what figures to be a long, exhausting and stressful week. Maybe they did some yard work, or watched a little college football, or just hung out at their favorite autumn spots.

Then we got one final blockbuster moment in the form of a poll out of, of all places, Iowa. Yes, Iowa. This state seemed so red that both candidates, believing that Iowa was firmly in Trump’s column, haven’t even bothered to campaign there.

The highly respected and traditionally reliable Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. (The difference was within the margin of error.)

Pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told The Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel, “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

The shocker sent other pollsters and pundits frantically searching for explanations. Was the Iowa poll accurate? Has there been a shift toward Harris that hadn’t been accounted for in other polls? Is this a last-hour surge for the vice president that might be a hint at what we could see nationally?

Or is the poll merely an off-target outlier?

Trump’s team quickly dismissed the poll, while Harris supporters were energized by it, claiming it was a sign of what we could see on Election Day.

It appeared that Harris’ strong performance in the poll was largely due to older women, who consider women’s rights a pivotal issue.

Meanwhile, the final set of polls by The New York Times and Siena College, which came out on Sunday, pretty much fall in line with what most polls and pundits are saying: As we approach Election Day, this race for the presidency is in a dead heat. It’s truly a toss-up.

The Times/Siena poll has Harris slightly up in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. It has Trump up in Arizona. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. All of the polls are within the margin of error.

In other words, in the swing states that will decide this election, neither candidate can say with any degree of certainty that they will win.

The New York Times’ Lisa Lerer and Ruth Igielnik wrote, “Both candidates have multiple pathways available to capture the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, assuming that polls are not dramatically underestimating the support for one or the other. In such a close race, even a small systemic polling error could tip the contest decisively in either direction. But there are signs that late deciders are breaking for Ms. Harris: Among the 8 percent of voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote, she wins the group by 55 percent to 44 percent.”

Then again, Lerer and Igielnik note that Trump seems to be gaining ground in the critical state of Pennsylvania, which, if won, provides a less stressful path for either candidate to 270 electoral votes.

Statistician and poll expert Nate Silver summed it up well in a post on X, writing, “Morning model update. NYT swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great. It’s a pure toss-up.”

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The Poynter Report Podcast

Ever wonder about the detailed process of how the Pulitzer Prize-winning PolitiFact fact-checks claims made by political candidates and pundits?

Well then check out the latest episode of “The Poynter Report Podcast,” which debuts today. I speak with Katie Sanders, the editor-in-chief of PolitiFact. We talk about how PolitiFact does its job, getting ready for the much-anticipated Lie of the Year, and which claims have come up most often during this presidential campaign. (Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or  Amazon Music, and don’t forget to leave us a rating and review.)

Sanders also is ready for what could be a tumultuous days and weeks ahead regarding claims of a rigged election, particularly if Trump loses.

Sanders told me, “We are preparing because we’re already seeing it. I would say, since early voting started, we're seeing claims about mail-in voting being fraudulent.”

Sanders said PolitiFact is already talking to election officials who increased security in anticipation of what could happen in the next few weeks.

Sanders added, “So I think our eyes are pretty open because of what we went through in 2020 where we had weeks, if not months, of fact-checking very specific claims around the country affecting various precincts through misleading video, misleading tweets. It kind of feels like Whac-a-Mole, honestly, but it's already started.”

Tweet of the day

This is from Ed O’Keefe, CBS’s senior White House and political correspondent: “Final weekend before America’s big decision. Thinking especially today of the colleagues out on the road, up early, staying up late, catching planes, renting cars, and talking to everyday people to get answers. It’s a privilege to be a journalist in a free society, and weekends like this are especially why. Safe travels everyone.”

Making an endorsement

Last week in this newsletter, I criticized the editorial board of the Poynter-owned Tampa Bay Times for not making an endorsement for president.

I wanted to note that Tampa Bay Times columnist Stephanie Hayes did offer her endorsement of Kamala Harris in a column over the weekend.

Hayes first, however, criticized the Times’ editorial board by writing, “I still think we made a bad call, missed a prime opportunity to represent the interests of Floridians as Donald Trump seeks power that would put the storm-ridden state in more danger.”

Hayes added, “Our editorial board should have endorsed a candidate for president, specifically, Kamala Harris. While I’d rather be writing about wine pairings for leftover Halloween candy (pinot noir mellows the sharp edges of a Reese’s bar), I will go ahead and write the endorsement I would have liked to see.”

What was strong about Hayes’ column was what the Times’ editorial board didn’t do: It made an endorsement through the lens of what it meant for the readers of the Tampa Bay Times — that being Tampa Bay residents, specifically, and Floridians, in general.

Reprehensible comment

In the same speech on Sunday in which he said he should not have left the White House after losing the 2020 election, Donald Trump made a comment about members of the media being shot.

Trump told a crowd in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, that he wouldn’t mind if someone shot at the media. He was talking about the bulletproof glass installed for his speeches since an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, last July.

Trump said, “I have this piece of glass here. But all we have really over here is the fake news, right? And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don’t mind that so much. I don’t mind. I don’t mind.”

The Washington Post’s Hannah Knowles and Meryl Kornfield wrote, ‘The audience roared with laughter.”

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung released a statement defending Trump’s comments. Cheung said, “The President’s statement about protective glass placement has nothing to do with the Media being harmed, or anything else. It was about threats against him that were spurred on by dangerous rhetoric from Democrats. In fact, President Trump was stating that the Media was in danger, in that they were protecting him and, therefore, were in great danger themselves, and should have had a glass protective shield, also. There can be no other interpretation of what was said. He was actually looking out for their welfare, far more than his own!”

Yeah, I don’t think Trump was looking out for the media’s welfare. He actually said he wouldn’t mind if someone had to shoot through the media to get to him. Cheung’s statement would be laughable if the topic wasn’t so serious.

In their story for the Post, Knowles and Kornfield wrote that Trump veered off-script even more than usual in that particular Sunday speech. They added, “The former president dwelled particularly long on personal grievances, insults and baseless claims that the election may be rigged against him.”

And now for something completely different

Let’s take a break from political news for some sports media doings. Although this one is quite contentious as well.

Philadelphia 76ers star center Joel Embiid got into a heated verbal argument with Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes that eventually turned physical when Embiid pushed Hayes.

Embiid has been recovering from a knee injury and has not played this season. But there has been some confusion about how badly Embiid is hurt and the timeline of his return. It has led to questions about Embiid’s commitment and conditioning. The Athletic’s David Aldridge, Tony Jones and Sam Amick noted, “Hayes has written multiple columns in the last week-plus that have been harshly critical of Embiid, chiding him for his poor conditioning coming into the season after playing in the Olympics, and knocking Embiid for his numerous absences over the years.”

In one column, Hayes alluded to Embiid’s son and late brother, writing, “Joel Embiid consistently points to the birth of his son, Arthur, as the major inflection point in his basketball career. He often says that he wants to be great to leave a legacy for the boy named after his little brother, who tragically died in an automobile accident when Embiid was in his first year as a 76er. Well, in order to be great at your job, you first have to show up for work. Embiid has been great at just the opposite.”

That paragraph was taken out of later versions of the column that ran online, but the damage was done. Embiid confronted Hayes after the 76ers game Saturday night. Embiid told Hayes, “The next time you bring up my dead brother and my son again, you are going to see what I’m going to do to you and I’m going to have to … live with the consequences.”

The Associated Press’ Kevin Cooney wrote, “Embiid continued, with several instances of profanity in the next few sentences. Hayes offered an apology, which Embiid did not want. ‘That’s not the (expletive) first time.’ Embiid said. Embiid later said that he doesn’t care what reporters say. ‘But you do,’ Hayes answered.”

Embiid then eventually pushed Hayes in the shoulder. Hayes did not react.

A spokesperson for the NBA said the league was aware of the incident and was investigating.

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Poynter recently brought together a wide array of media experts, leaders and thinkers to discuss the state of the news media industry and themes. You can find the results in Poynter’s recently published OnPoynt report, which highlights current industry trends in areas such as local news and content creators, misinformation and AI innovations.

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Media tidbits

• Vice President Kamala Harris made a cameo during the cold open on “Saturday Night Live.” In the best line, former cast member Maya Rudolph, who has been playing Harris this season, told Harris, “I’m going to vote for us.” Harris said, “Great. Any chance that you are registered in Pennsylvania?” Rudolph said, “Nope, I am not.” To which Harris replied, “Well, it was worth a shot.”
• Meanwhile, the Trump-appointed commissioner of the FCC says Harris’ appearance on “SNL” violates the “equal time” rule and that Trump can request equal time on NBC. Variety’s Todd Spangler has more.
• The Los Angeles Times’ Stephen Battaglio with “Close polls, likely legal challenges: How TV networks will handle another election week.” Chris Stirewalt, political editor for cable network NewsNation, told Battaglio, “If the polls are accurate, we’re in for a real doozy.”
• My Poynter colleague Alex Mahadevan, director of MediaWise, with “ChatGPT rolls out a Google competitor with a skewed view of the news.”
• The Associated Press’ Altaf Qadri with “An AP photographer captures the power of a mixed martial arts punch in a single frame.”

Hot type

• During these politically divided times, this might be a story familiar to many of you out there. Politico’s Michael Kruse with “The Breaking of an American Family.”
• The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta with “Inside the Ruthless, Restless Final Days of Trump’s Campaign.”
• For The New York Times Magazine, Jesse Barron with “How Four Posts on Instagram Destroyed Her Life.”

More resources for journalists

• Transform your crime coverage while helping your community.
• Encourage an outstanding colleague to apply for Leadership Academy for Women in Media.
• Are you an up-and-coming newsroom manager?

Have feedback or a tip? Email Poynter senior media writer Tom Jones at [email protected].