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“Every age thinks its battle is the most important of all,” wrote 19th-century German poet Heinrich Heine. The same could be said for the way the American chattering classes approach every presidential election, with Tuesday’s contest certainly being no exception.
As sometime Discourse contributor Charles Lipson points out in a recent piece [ [link removed] ] for Real Clear Politics, the stakes this time are deemed to be existential. “To hear the candidates and their surrogates tell it, we live in Weimar Germany 1932. There are only fascists fighting communists, with nobody in the middle.”
What happened in Germany in 1932 was indeed consequential, since seven short years later the man elected that year to lead that country, Adolf Hitler, plunged the world into the most terrible war in human history. But is that where we are today? Is America really on some kind of precipice?
Certainly, we’re living in volatile times, and a close, disputed election could spark widespread public disorder or the inappropriate use of public institutions in the service of pushing one side or the other over the finish line. But even if those things happen, the United States will likely reset and move on. That’s because we’re more resilient, more united and more decent than many of us realize. What’s more, thanks to the basic liberal ideas and institutions that undergird our country and the common sense and dynamism of our people, America has an embarrassment of riches that will likely insulate us from the worst tendencies of our partisan politics.
I’m not saying that elections don’t matter. They can matter greatly. Think of the Civil War without Lincoln, World War II without Roosevelt or the Cold War without Reagan. (And, of course, if we find ourselves in a major global conflict in the next few years, Tuesday’s choice could turn out to be as momentous.) Policy matters too; the U.S. has real problems, and they can be either solved or exacerbated by our elected representatives and the decisions they make. But most of the time, the actions of politicians, even the president, are consequential only on the margins, and life goes on largely the same regardless of who is in charge. Think about it: Has your day-to-day life during the Biden years really been that different from the way it was during the Trump years?
Some of the reason for this comes down to social inertia. Barring big-bang revolutions, major social change usually comes slowly and is driven by many different competing forces, with politics as just one among many factors.
But there are unique aspects of American life and the American system that also should prevent you from joining the hyperventilators who think that if their candidates lose, we’ll all end up trampled by the four horsemen. To begin with, there is the wisdom of our Constitution, which through federalism and the separation of powers has sliced and diced state power into different competing pieces. And while the presidency in recent decades has certainly grown in power [ [link removed] ], making overreach ever more likely, it is still routinely checked by other institutions within our constitutional order. For example, as I wrote in Discourse [ [link removed] ] around this time last year, “In just the past few years, our courts have helped to check the worst impulses of political leaders in both parties, from Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election to Joe Biden’s overreach on evictions and student loans.”
Another aspect of our system that ameliorates the impact of each election is the fact that another election is always around the corner. If your candidates lose on Tuesday, you can soon start thinking about the midterms, just two short years from now. And given the fact that the party out of power often gains during midterm elections, those who are disappointed by the results of Tuesday’s vote will likely become more invested in the process again as their party and candidates mount another challenge in 2026. And, of course, another presidential campaign will begin soon after the midterms, further renewing this virtuous cycle.
And then there is the American economy, which despite the best efforts of the politicians and regulators continues to motor on, regularly exceeding expectations. America’s robust economic growth is the ultimate safety valve, giving people a reason to focus inward, on personal opportunity, rather than on social grievance. And compared to a sclerotic Europe or a slowing China, growth prospects in the United States [ [link removed] ] continue to be bright.
Meanwhile, for all the talk about how divided we are, solid majorities of Americans actually agree on much more than they disagree on. This includes everything from core liberal values [ [link removed] ], like freedom of speech and equal treatment under the law, to attitudes about hot-button topics like AI, and even to many hotly debated political questions [ [link removed] ] like immigration and the threat posed by China. In truth, we think we’re much more divided [ [link removed] ] than we really are.  
Likewise, for all its problems, our society is not coming apart at the seams, and our fellow citizens are not coming unhinged. As sociologist Jonathan Haidt recently told The Wall Street Journal [ [link removed] ], “What I’ve observed in studying our culture is that the great majority of people are sane and decent.” I agree: During recent travels around the country, from Texas to Utah to Florida to New York, most people I met were grounded, decent folk who were working hard and trying to do the right thing. It’s hard for me to think that these people, over 330 million strong, and the institutions that represent them at all levels of society will tolerate a president who drives the country into a ditch or, even worse, toward some extreme destination.
So, whatever happens on Tuesday, relax. If you think the winner is bound to force big, life-altering changes, you’re likely either going to be relieved or disappointed. That’s because this election probably isn’t “the big one” it’s being billed as by the hucksters in the media and elsewhere who make a living selling fear and outrage. Look back at our recent or not-so-recent history, and you’ll realize that Tuesday’s vote is likely to be important, but not that important.
Meanwhile…
Where I’ve Been: As regular readers of this column probably know, I’m a big fan [ [link removed] ] of spaceflight. That’s why, on a recent trip to Houston, I was thrilled to be able to visit the Johnson Space Center [ [link removed] ], which not only houses NASA’s flight control center and astronaut training school but also has a large museum with a collection of artifacts that span the history of American space travel. The fact that I was able to go with two close friends who are also space enthusiasts made the experience especially rewarding.
Most of the center’s collection is displayed in a cavernous room, where visitors can see everything from huge rockets to space suits to moon rocks. The collection is largely focused on the early astronaut missions, from Mercury through the Apollo moon landings, and then the 30 years or so beginning in the early 1980s when NASA was flying the Space Shuttle. And speaking of the shuttle, just outside the museum building is a cool mock-up of a space shuttle that visitors can walk through.
As I’ve written before [ [link removed] ], I believe we’re on the cusp of an exciting new era in space travel that will far exceed what’s come before. But what’s come before is amazing, and seeing bits and pieces of it in this place where history was made over and over again was a real treat.
And finally, a favor. As you already know, the great content that we publish every day in Discourse is available to you and all our readers completely free of charge. So if you read and enjoy the magazine regularly, please consider making a donation today. Your gift will help us to continue commissioning and publishing a broad range of thoughtful essays from different perspectives.
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