With polls showing that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are running even in nearly every swing state, this election will turn on the decisions of very small subsets of voters. One of those subsets surely isn’t contemplating voting for Trump, but may end up electing him anyway.
I refer to those voters so understandably appalled by Israel’s war on Gaza and the toll it’s taken in innocent lives that they may not vote, or vote for Jill Stein, as a way of protesting the Biden administration’s continued provision of arms for Netanyahu’s war, and Harris’s refusal to cleanly break with that policy.
It’s by no means clear how not voting for Harris will stop Israel’s destruction of Gaza and the attendant slaughter of innocent lives. It is perfectly clear, however, that it will imperil millions of innocent lives right here in the USA should it lead to a Trump victory.
I refer to the immigrants among us whose forced deportation is the fundamental plank in Trump’s platform, the one issue he stresses in every one of his otherwise disjointed speeches, the sine qua non of his pledge to make America great again. To accomplish that deportation, he’s made clear he’d order the National Guard to sweep through immigrant-heavy neighborhoods, and might well order the Army to clear out areas like the Bronx, East Los Angeles, and Chicago’s West Side as well.
The government’s count of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. is roughly 11 million, but Trump and JD Vance routinely inflate that number to 20 million or more. And even in the very, very, very unlikely event that deportations are confined just to the truly undocumented, they would still separate immigrant parents from citizen children, and banish Dreamers—undocumented immigrants brought here as children by their parents—to countries that are utterly alien to them. At minimum, the process will destroy hundreds of thousands of families and devastate entire communities. The toll in innocent lives—not killed, but effectively crippled—will be huge.
And this is the most predictable consequence of a Trump victory. His demonization of immigrants is the central message of his campaign, and a campaign (inevitably entailing some violence) to deport them follows as the night the day.
I don’t doubt that those campaigns will meet serious resistance in our cities, as those opposed to them will take to the streets in very large numbers. I also don’t doubt that the ranks of those demonstrators will include some of those whose opposition to the U.S. military aid that has enabled Israel’s war on Palestinians impelled them not to vote for Kamala. After all, if they’ve refused to vote for Harris due to their revulsion and rage at the loss of innocent lives, the assault on immigrants will likely lead them to feel comparable revulsion and rage.
It’s by no means clear, however, that those imperiled immigrants will welcome those Harris-abstainers to the ranks of their supporters. They may reason—actually, they almost surely will reason—that progressives who didn’t vote for Harris didn’t think that the innocent lives of the immigrants among them mattered very much. Some of them might even conclude that those Harris-refuseniks didn’t give a flying fuck about them.
This is something that voters infuriated by U.S. Gaza policy and still wrestling with how to vote might want to think about.
Harold Meyerson is editor at large of The American Prospect.
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