A top analyst at Sabato’s Crystal Ball — one of the premier election-forecasting organizations in the country — rated six legislative chambers as “TOSS-UPS” in our priority states. 

This is a BIG deal. A toss-up means it’s anyone’s game. 

Rush a $30 donation to the NDRC in these final days and help turn these “TOSS-UP” chambers into wins for fair maps. State legislative races are often decided by just a few hundred votes, so a contribution of any amount can make a measurable difference in the outcomes.

These “toss-ups” include both chambers in the Arizona legislature, the New Hampshire State House, the Michigan State House, the Minnesota State House, and the Pennsylvania State House.

Here’s a quick analysis of what’s at stake in each state: 

➡️ Arizona: Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the Arizona legislature, but if we flip just two seats in each, we can flip both the state house and state senate and strengthen the state’s redistricting process.

➡️ Michigan: While Democrats hold a trifecta in Michigan, Republicans are vying to take back the state house this November. If they do, they could attempt to roll back progress on fair maps by targeting the state’s independent redistricting commission. 

➡️ Minnesota: Democrats won a surprise trifecta of their state’s government in 2022, but this year, only the state house is on the ballot. Republicans need to flip just five seats to win back control and block all the amazing progress we’ve seen there in the last two years.

➡️ New Hampshire: It’s the Republicans who hold a trifecta in New Hampshire — and since mid-cycle congressional redistricting is permitted in this state, the GOP could use their power to rewrite their maps at any given moment. (The Republican candidate for governor has even said they hope to do so.) Democrats need to win the legislature to put an end to the possibility of mid-cycle GOP gerrymandering.

➡️ Pennsylvania: Democrats hold the state house and the governor’s seat, but Republicans control the state senate. If we can protect the state house majority and flip the state senate, we will achieve another Democratic trifecta and have the ability to enact redistricting reform in Pennsylvania. 

These are races that are critical to the long-term fight for fairness — and being successful in these elections could help lay the foundation for an even fairer redistricting process in 2031.

With just 3 days until the final votes are cast, we need a surge of support to fund our work to elect Democracy Defenders across the country and help keep the fair maps movement moving forward.

Thank you so much,
Team NDRC

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Since 2017, the NDRC has executed a comprehensive redistricting strategy that shifts the redistricting power, creating fair districts where Democrats can compete. Our victories have been made possible by our strong community of grassroots supporters.

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