We don't know what's going to happen with the election this year. Nobody does, not for sure. But we do know that Trump and his MAGA minions are fully self-proclaimed fossil fueled fascists.

And we do know, based on past experience, what to expect from Trump and his team on election night and in the immediate aftermath of the election. We've told you before about what to expect, before, during, and after January 6 2021. And we've been right all along about Trump, fascism, and fossil fuels.

So we wrote a long post laying out a couple scenarios before the election, on election night and right after, and in the weeks between election day and the certification of the election. Our hope is that the information makes the process of watching and waiting less stressful, surprising, and unpredictable for anti-fascist climate activists.

BUT FIRST: We encourage everyone to vote because it's one of the safest and easiest forms of direct action. If you need help registering to vote or figuring out local voting rules, visit Vote.gov – a non-partisan government website with info for all 50 states. And if you're not sure who to vote for, check out the voter guide from our friends at Climate Hawks Vote, which has listings for local, state, and federal candidates and which ones are talking about climate change. We'll also have some ways for you to join mass calls and meetings soon after the election.

Our blog post covers a long list of possible scenarios and has lots of links to news articles and sections of the constitution to explain it all. But here's a short version followed by a table of key dates.

Before the election - Expect Trump to keep running for President, and fossil fuel companies to keep donating to him (they already give 90% of their money to Trump and his MAGA minions). That's why we call them fossil fueled fascists. Be on the lookout for sporadic acts of violence and oppression, like the firebombing of ballot boxes we've seen already. Mut mostly go and vote because that's the safest and best way to take action right now.
On election night and the day after - Expect the "red mirage" where Trump and other MAGA candidates appear to be ahead early, and then are overtaken by opponents as more ballots are counted - a process that can take days or even weeks. Be on guard for Trump to declare victory early, and for a lot of lawsuits trying to stop ballot counting. We'll alert you if there's a way to take action to protect the vote and make sure every vote that's cast is counted.
For the rest of November and December - The key date in the chart below is called the "safe harbor deadline" on December 8, 2024. That's around the time we expect legal challenges to stop ballot counting to go to the Supreme Court, or for other legal or illegal attempts to prevent the electoral college votes from being certified. If one or more states' electoral college votes are challenged, that can set up another showdown at the Congressional certification on January 6, 2025.

The exact tactics Trump used in 2020 to try and deny the election and overturn the results probably wont work this year. But that doesn't mean fossil fueled fascists wont try something. Check out the whole post for details and specifics, or click on those links above to jump to a summary of that time period.

Key dates

NOV 5	Election Day: In a close election, we are unlikely to know which candidate won on election night. And Trump is likely to use the time to declare himself the winner and challenge ballot counting. See “Red Mirage” above.
NOV 5-12	The Count This is the window where we should expect a flurry of legal challenges in swing states and potentially protests or mob violence at ballot counting sites. If things are close, unclear, or Trump is trying (as we expect) to sow chaos, we will call on everyone to mobilize behind demands to count every vote.
DEC 8	The "Safe Harbor" Deadline: States must resolve disputes over which ballots to count and report final vote totals or risk their Electoral College votes not being counted.
DEC 17	Deadline for Governors to Report Election Results: In each state, the governor must send a "certificate of ascertainment" to Congress reporting which candidate won the state and which slate of electors has been appointed to the Electoral College. The Electoral College Meets: In each state, the winning candidate's slate of pledged electors meet, cast their votes, and send a record of their votes to Congress.
JAN 3, 2025	Start of the 119th Congress: All newly elected or reelected Senators and Representatives are sworn in – these new members of Congress, not the ones in office on Nov 5, 2024, will certify the election results.
JAN 6, 2025	Congress Counts Electoral College Votes: Congress convenes in a joint session with the Vice President (Harris) presiding. They certify the count of Electoral College votes and choose the next president. Note that in a contested electoral college election, the House awards 1 vote per state delegation, not one vote per member. Since Republicans control more state delegations, this opens the possibility of the House voting to install Donald Trump, even if he did not get the most votes or win the electoral college.
JAN 20, 2025	Inauguration Day: The newly-elected President is sworn in. If Congress hasn’t chosen a new president, the newly-elected Vice President is sworn in as the acting president. If Congress hasn’t chosen a new Vice President, the Speaker of the House is sworn in as the acting president.

Go vote,

Drew and the 198 methods crew

Sources:

Again, lots of sources in the blog post, check it out for a full listing