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Post-election controversies inevitably arise when a few votes in a few states decide the presidency

In 2020, Biden won the national popular vote by over 7,000,000 votes.


However, the decisive margin that made him President was his lead of 42,918 votes scattered over three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan).

Except for those 42,918 votes, Trump would have been won the Electoral College and retained the presidency in 2020, despite Biden's overwhelming lead in the nationwide popular vote.

The fact that a few thousand votes in a few closely divided states regularly decide the presidency is a recurring feature of the current system of electing the President.


The reason is that current winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes concentrates presidential campaigns on a small number of closely divided states -- just 7 this year. Several of these close states usually end up being very close on Election Day.


In the last six presidential elections, the presidency has been decided by an average of a mere 287,969 popular votes spread over an average of three states. In contrast, the average margin of victory in the national popular vote was 4,668,496—16 times larger.

Razor-thin results in a few states, in turn, generate post-election doubt, controversy, litigation, and unrest over real, imagined, or manufactured irregularities.


All-or-nothing payoffs at the state level make the national outcome extremely sensitive to fraud, foreign interference, and random events. A sound election system should possess a high level of resistance to the impact of minor influences.


Close elections are a recurring feature of the current system of electing the President because its “state-by-state” nature divides the nation’s voters into 51 separate state-level pools of votes. After this Balkanization, a one, two, or three closely divided states almost inevitably end up being extremely close on Election Day.


Under the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, the outcome of an election would be based on multi-million-vote nationwide margins—not microscopic margins in a couple of states. 


BACKGROUND ON NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). At that time, the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC will get all the electoral votes from all of the enacting states. That is, the candidate receiving the most popular votes nationwide will be guaranteed enough electoral votes to become President. 


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