|
The world faces many risks that are consequential enough to significantly harm or set back human civilization. Some even raise the specter of human extinction. What exactly are these risks? And how can they be monitored, measured, and mitigated?
A new RAND report tackles these sobering questions. The authors examine six threats and hazards: risks posed by artificial intelligence, asteroid and comet impacts, sudden and severe changes to the climate, nuclear war, severe pandemics, and supervolcanoes. The researchers find that, overall, global catastrophic risk has been increasing in recent years. It also appears likely to increase in the coming decade.
Of course, these threats and hazards are not all the same. For supervolcanoes and asteroid and comet strikes, risk should remain constant or decrease in the next decade. But for the remaining threats and hazards, the risk appears to be increasing because of human activities. And for AI, the uncertainties are large enough that it’s hard to determine the extent or magnitude of changes in risk with any confidence.
The authors also identify some key factors affecting risk levels. These include the rate and nature of technological change, the maturity of global governance and coordination, failure to advance human development (which, in turn, threatens societal stability), and interactions among the threats and hazards themselves.
So, how should humanity respond? Our researchers emphasize the need for an approach to risk management that matches the complex nature of these threats, the uncertainties that surround them, and the ways they interact. “Only continued attention, inquiry, and action will ensure that society is able to protect human civilization,” the authors write, “and build a more resilient and prepared society should a global catastrophe occur.”
|
