October 31, 2024

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

64 percent says U.S. on the wrong track as Trump maintains battleground state lead, GOP gains early voting edge

By Robert Romano

A whopping 64.3 percent of Americans say that the U.S. is on the wrong track, with only 26.9 percent saying it’s on the right track, according to the latest national polling average compiled by RealClearPolling.com, and that’s usually bad news for the incumbent party.

In recent cycles, when the White House incumbent party was seeking another term, a relatively high right track usually correlated with the incumbents winning, and a low right track has correlated with losses.

That makes every election a referendum on the incumbents. Every one of them.

The news comes at former President Donald Trump appears to be holding onto a narrow Electoral College lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in state polls and Republicans have dramatically improved their early voting operations from where they were in 2020.

Historical data compiled by Gallup bears this out as well. In 1980, when Ronald Reagan ousted the incumbent President Jimmy Carter, from Nov. 2019 to Jan. 1981, only 18 percent of Americans were satisfied with the direction of the country. And with sky-high inflation, unemployment and a recession in 1980, it is no wonder.

Whereas, by Sept. 1984, even with an intervening recession in 1982, the economy was in major recovery and boom, public satisfaction had recovered dramatically, with 48 percent saying they were satisfied, and so Reagan went on to easily defeat Walter Mondale.

Similarly, in Sept. 1988, public satisfaction with the country’s direction stood at 56 percent, and George H.W. Bush easily defeated Michael Dukakis for a third consecutive Republican term.

But by Nov. 1992, with a recession, public satisfaction plummeted to 26 percent, and so Bill Clinton ousted the incumbent Bush.

By Nov. 1996, with the recession in the rearview mirror, things looked a lot better, public satisfaction rose to 47 percent, and so Clinton easily won reelection against Bob Dole.

An exception might be 2000, when in Oct. 2000, public satisfaction was at 62 percent, but George W. Bush narrowly defeated the incumbent Vice President Al Gore. However, it’s worth noting that Gore was going for a third consecutive Democratic term and those are tougher to secure.

Returning to the trend was 2004, where the incumbent Bush defeated John Kerry as public satisfaction stood at 44 percent in Oct. 2004.

By 2008, the economy was imploding, however, and public satisfaction hit a record low of 8 percent by Oct. 2008, and Barack Obama crushed John McCain, who was running for a third consecutive Republican term.

In 2012, the economy was in recovery, and by Nov. 2012, public satisfaction had recovered too to about 33 percent, and Obama defeated Mitt Romney in his reelection bid.

By 2016, confidence had been flat to dipping, hitting 28 percent by Oct. 2016, and Donald Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton, who had been seeking a third consecutive Democratic term.

And in 2020, right before Covid, public confidence was being recovered, and satisfaction stood at 45 percent in Feb. 2020, but with the global economy locked down amid the Covid recession, by Nov. 2020 it was 21 percent, and Trump narrowly lost reelection to Joe Biden.

Today, per Gallup, public satisfaction, which had recovered to 36 percent by May 2021, began plummeting amid the rising levels of inflation, hitting a low of 13 percent by July 2022, and in Oct. 2024, stands at just 22 percent, about where it was when Trump lost his reelection bid.

The lesson seems to be that first term incumbent parties are tough to beat — they usually win about two-thirds of the time in U.S. history — with recorded wins in 1984, 1996, 2004 and 2012, but that when they do lose, in 1980 and 2020, it was at times when public confidence and satisfaction was quite low. 2012 and 2020 show this especially to be true, with Obama winning with a middling satisfaction number and Trump barely losing with a pretty low satisfaction number.

Once again, in 2024, we have a first term incumbent party represented by Kamala Harris and the Democrats seeking another term, but the public is unsatisfied with the direction of the country. Usually, that means the public is saying it’s time for a change. But we’ll see. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/10/64-percent-says-u-s-on-the-wrong-track-as-trump-maintains-battleground-state-lead-gop-gains-early-voting-edge/

Steve Bannon’s Imprisonment Was All About Politics

By Rick Manning

Steve Bannon’s release from federal prison on Oct. 29 after serving four months on the political charge of contempt of Congress is a stark reminder of the rules that the Democrats chose to enforce. It is galling to listen to Democrats worry about being imprisoned by a weaponized federal government under Donald Trump.

Bannon legally challenged whether he was allowed to testify before Congress based upon an executive privilege claim. Once he lost that appeal, he made the Democrat-controlled Congress aware that he was available to testify. Rather than welcoming his testimony, Democrats in Congress chose to press charges against him through the Biden appointed District of Columbia U.S. attorney.

A trial occurred where Bannon was not allowed to present an affirmative defense and the kangaroo D.C. jury found him guilty. 

Imagine the uproar if this set of facts was used against any Democrat or never-Trump Republican.

The Democrats in D.C. have stripped off Lady Justice’s blindfold and now have the audacity to worry that her steady gaze is focused directly on them. Those who have committed crimes should be prosecuted, even though the truth is that no Democrat will be found guilty for politically motivated corruption by the very swamp they are protecting.

So, what can be done?

A reasonable approach is for Congress to simply restructure the federal appeals court system, eliminating the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals and restricting the local court to only handle local cases similar to any other federal district. The disputes over federal regulatory policy should be assigned on a lottery basis to the remaining federal appeals court jurisdictions.

There is a reason why the Constitution created a unique federal district to house the federal government and its bureaucracy — and that is to deny that bureaucracy additional powers which flow from being able to vote on those who pay their salaries. It is a logical follow-on that the federal district should also be ineligible to have a court that decides disputes directly involving their power, and to imprison those who stand against their exercise of that power.

It is time for Congress to act on what I am calling the Bannon-Navarro-Stevens Act to end the D.C. Circuit Court as mentioned above but also to end prosecution of political corruption cases in the District.

After all, the Democrats achieved their 60-vote veto-proof majority that led to Obamacare and the disastrous federal takeover of student loans due to the corruption conviction of former Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens on the eve of his election causing the Democrats to win that seat. Stevens’ conviction was overturned due to the outrageous abuse of power by federal prosecutors who withheld exculpatory information from the jury.

America can never again allow the weaponization of the federal government, and one of the best safeguards against it is to move judicial oversight over this weaponized government away from the seat of politicized corruption and back to America where a jury of your peers means a jury with Republicans, Democrats and Independents on it.

Rick Manning is the President of Americans for Limited Government.

To view online: https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/30/opinion-steve-bannons-imprisonment-was-all-about-politics-rick-manning/