Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.
Happy Thursday! With just a few days until the election, we have an election-packed newsletter breaking down the seven bellwether counties to watch on election night, the political affiliations of young men, and the backlash to progressive energy policy.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. Election Night Bellwethers
Topline: Ahead of election night, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt examines <[link removed]> seven bellwether counties in seven swing states. While not always predictive of final results, these counties provide insights into key voting constituencies and trends.

The Bellwethers:


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Maricopa County, AZ, and Kent County, MI: Both counties reflect their state’s recent political shift, backing Joe Biden in 2020 and
Donald Trump in 2016.

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Ozaukee County, WI; Westmoreland County, PA; and Forsyth County, GA: These solidly
Republican counties will indicate GOP turnout in their states. All three counties favored Trump in the past two elections but showed weakened support in 2020.

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Washoe County, NV: This county supported Biden by a margin of 4.5% in 2020 and Clinton by 1.3% in 2016.

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Nash County, NC: The results here will indicate how black voters turnout for Kamala Harris. Nash County narrowly favored Biden by a margin of 0.2% in 2020 and Trump by 1.1% in 2016.
2. Young Men for Trump?
Topline: While young women are becoming more liberal, AEI’s Daniel Cox finds <[link removed]> the trends in political affiliation of
young men (age 18–29) are more complex.

Political Shift: Democratic affiliation among young men has declined <[link removed]> from 51% in 2016 to 39% in 2023. Cox notes, however, that these young men haven’t necessarily become reliably conservative; many express dissatisfaction with both parties.


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A 2023 poll, Cox found that around 40% of young men held unfavorable views of both the Republican and Democratic parties.




But. . . Cox finds that young men are more likely to support Trump over Harris. A recent Pew poll <[link removed]> found they were more inclined to believe that Trump’s policies rather than Harris’s would benefit young men.




“I’m inclined to believe that Trump will do well with young men in 2024. . . . If Trump falls short, it will likely be due to the fact that young men tend to be less reliable voters, especially those without a college degree.” 
—Daniel Cox
3. Voters Want All-of-the-Above Energy
Topline: Considering Harris’s pivot <[link removed]> away from policies like the Green New Deal, AEI’s Ruy
Teixeira discusses <[link removed]> the electorate's broader rejection of progressive policies on energy production. Rather than ending the use of fossil fuels, a recent NBC poll <[link removed]> shows that 67% of voters would prefer a candidate who supports expanding fossil fuel production.

All-of-the-Above: Progressives’ push to rapidly replace fossil fuels with renewable energy was a departure from the previous “all of the above” approach, which included a mix of energy sources. Teixeira points out that this balanced approach remains popular:


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In a recent survey <[link removed]> authored with Yuval Levin, Teixeira found 72% of respondents supported a mix of fossil fuels and renewable
energy, while only 26% favored a rapid shift to renewables.

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Notably, their survey reveals a divide between working-class and college-educated voters. Working-class voters overwhelmingly support a mixed-energy approach, whereas, white liberal college graduates favor getting rid of fossil fuels.







“Voters clearly aren’t buying what progressives are selling on energy and climate. Not even close. And that’s another big reason the progressive moment has come to an end.” 
—Ruy Teixeira
Last but Not Least . . .
Biden Administration’s Disaster: College Enrollment Plunge <[link removed]>
Climate Projections: Take the Under <[link removed]>
Special thanks to Carter Hutchinson and Drew Kirkpatrick!
Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!
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