Report: Ukraine and Russia Weigh Talks on De-escalating Energy Attacks |
Kyiv and Moscow are in preliminary discussions about a potential deal to stamp out strikes on each others’ energy facilities, unnamed sources including senior Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not immediately comment on the matter, while a Kremlin spokesperson dismissed the report as fake news when questioned. Last week, Zelenskyy said that a bilateral deal to stop hitting energy infrastructure was needed as a first stop to wind down the most aggressive phase of the war. Such a deal was reportedly under consideration before Ukraine’s push into Russia’s Kursk region, but was then sidelined upon the Ukrainian offensive. Zelenskyy’s comments last week and the report of preliminary talks underscore Ukrainian concerns over the vulnerability of its energy grid as winter approaches.
Russian missile strikes have destroyed half of Ukraine’s energy generation capacity, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last month. The European Union (EU) hopes to help restore capacity that would serve around 15 percent of the country’s energy demand, she added. Meanwhile, Ukraine and its allies continue to sound the alarm about North Korean troops in Russia, and Russia yesterday test-fired missiles in what it called a simulated response to a nuclear attack. (FT, Reuters, Politico, AFP)
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“Ukraine has lost so much electrical infrastructure from Russian air strikes that it will face lengthy blackouts heading into winter that will preclude an expansion of industrial or mining production. Exploiting Ukraine’s natural resources will require either the end of the war or the acquisition of much better air defenses—and neither option is likely anytime soon. In the meantime, Western aid needs to focus on simply getting Ukraine through the winter, rather than launching costly new economic initiatives,” CFR Senior Fellow Max Boot writes in this Expert Brief.
“Kyiv knows it must have a strong and stabilized front to be able to have any kind of leverage with Moscow,” the Royal United Services Institute’s Jack Watling writes for Foreign Affairs. “It would be particularly dangerous, however, if Ukraine were forced into negotiations as the situation at the front continues to unravel in Russia’s favor.”
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U.S., Taiwan to Open Talks to Address Double Taxation |
The first round of negotiations are expected to begin in the next few weeks, the U.S. Treasury Department said. Taiwanese firms play a major role in U.S. advanced technologies, but many Taiwanese companies see the lack of a bilateral income tax treaty as a barrier to further investment in the United States. (Bloomberg)
Indonesia/Thailand: Thailand formally kickstarted its accession process to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a group of mostly advanced economies, a week after it became a partner of the BRICS bloc. Thai officials have described their efforts to enter both orbits as a push for geopolitical neutrality. Indonesia is also due to begin its OECD accession process but deferred an application to join BRICS. (Nikkei)
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Canadian Official Says Indian Minister Ordered Campaign Against Sikh Separatists
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India’s powerful Home Minister Amit Shah gave orders behind a campaign that targeted Sikh separatists on Canadian soil, Canada’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs said in a parliamentary hearing yesterday. A Canadian Sikh activist was killed in British Columbia last year. Shah is thought to be a potential successor to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Shah’s office did not comment on the accusations, but the Indian government has repeatedly denied the allegations. (AP, Reuters)
Myanmar: Canada, the EU, and United Kingdom (UK) are imposing new sanctions on entities supplying Myanmar’s junta with war equipment such as aviation fuel and funds. More than 3.4 million people have been displaced by fighting in the country, the UK said. (AFP, VOA)
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Middle East and North Africa |
Washington Questions Israel After Gaza Strike It Calls ‘Horrifying’ |
Dozens of people died in yesterday’s Israeli strike on a residential unit in the northern Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Civil Defense said. U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Washington was questioning Israel about the “horrifying” incident. Meanwhile, the United Nations said October has seen a sharp downturn in the amount of aid trucks permitted to enter Gaza; three thousand truckloads of aid entered in September compared to 704 between October 1 and 22. (NYT, FT)
At this event, CFR experts give an update on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Saudi Arabia: The country’s sovereign wealth fund aims to reduce its international investments by around a third of its 2020 high point to focus more on its domestic economy, the fund’s governor said yesterday. Its new target for international investments is around 18 to 20 percent. The fund has around $930 billion in assets. (FT)
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Botswana Holds Presidential Vote Amid Downturn in Diamond Market |
Botswana has been celebrated for its democracy and stability in recent decades; the Botswana Democratic Party has governed for fifty-eight years. But a drop in global demand for diamonds, central to the country’s economy, has pushed unemployment up to 27 percent. The incumbent Mokgweetsi Masisi is seeking his second and final term, challenged by three opposition candidates. (AP)
CFR expert Michelle Gavin gets into why today’s polls in Botswana mark a pivotal vote.
Ethiopia/Somalia: Somalia ordered Ethiopian diplomat Ali Mohamed Adan to leave the country within seventy-two hours, saying he “engaged in activities inconsistent with his diplomatic role.” The countries’ bilateral rift over Ethiopia’s deal with breakaway Somaliland for port access has already led Somalia to expel Ethiopia’s ambassador. (Addis Standard)
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EU Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles Take Effect |
China aimed to block the tariffs of as much as 45 percent in talks, but EU officials said “significant remaining gaps” persist between the two to resolve the dispute. Beijing and Brussels have already met eight times over the past year. Volkswagen, Germany’s largest employer, reported a profit drop of 42 percent in the third quarter, reflecting its struggles with competition from China. (NYT, Reuters)
In this YouTube Short, CFR President Michael Froman questions whether EU tariffs will burst China’s EV bubble.
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Mexico Supreme Court Judge Resigns Ahead of Court Shake-up |
An election for the top court’s judges is due to occur in June due to a recently passed judicial reform. Justice Alfredo Gutiérrez, who has served since 2012, said in his resignation letter yesterday that his decision “does not imply an implicit acceptance of the reform’s constitutionality.” Only three of the eleven current judges have publicly backed the reform. (Reuters)
Argentina/Spain: Spain named a new ambassador to Argentina after its former envoy had been expelled in May. Both countries portrayed the step as a fresh page in bilateral ties, which began to strain last year when Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez spoke out against Javier Milei during the country’s presidential election. Milei won that vote. (Bloomberg)
This Backgrounder by CFR’s Diana Roy explains how Milei has rocked Argentina’s role in the world.
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Harris Mostly Sticks to Domestic Policy in D.C. Campaign Speech |
Vice President Kamala Harris addressed supporters yesterday at the Ellipse in Washington, the site of former President Donald Trump’s speech to supporters that preceded the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. She pledged to fortify U.S. democracy by listening to opponents rather than classifying them as the “enemy from within” as former President Donald Trump has done. Harris touched on immigration reiterating previous pledges, but mostly stuck to domestic policy, not mentioning the war in Gaza. (CNN, NYT)
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