Wednesday, October 30

Election conspiracy theories and far-right extremism have taken hold among Arizona Republicans more than in any other state. My latest feature digs into the reasons that could have led to Arizona’s full-throated embrace of election denialism and conspiracy theories.

Also in this issue: A look at a disturbing new trend of political violence, with arsonists targeting drop boxes and a history of how poll watching became controversial.

As always, thanks for reading.

— Matt Cohen, Senior Staff Writer

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Arizona: Capital of Conspiracies

Since the 2020 election, when former President Donald Trump and his loyal followers spread conspiracy theories about voting machines and lobbed false allegations of mass election fraud, the GOP in key swing states have been in a sort of ideological civil war. The far-right extremists of state parties are battling for party control from moderate Republicans. Or, at least, Republicans who don’t subscribe to the narrative that the 2020 election was stolen. Such battles are playing out in states like Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan.

That’s not the case in Arizona, where the far-right conspiracy theorists have taken over the state’s GOP. How did that happen? That’s what I set out to figure out in my latest feature, which digs into how Trump’s brand of far-right extremism and proclivity for dangerous election conspiracy theories seems to be more pronounced in The Grand Canyon State than any of the other battleground states.

For my article, I spoke with Pima County Recorder Gabriella Cázares-Kelly, Pinal County Supervisor candidate George Arredondo and Cochise County Recorder candidate Anne Carl. They all offered their own perspectives as to why they think Arizona’s GOP has become so extreme — and successfully cast out those who dare to challenge their false assertion of voter fraud. Economic issues, social challenges and the state’s changing demographics are all potential reasons for how this happened, according to the people I talked to.

But as the election draws ever so close, the one thing that stuck out to me in talking to Cázares-Kelly, Arredondo and Carl is how fearful they are of how radically the state’s GOP has changed politics in the state. “I kept waiting for things to die back down and normalize again to the sleepy quiet office that I first ran for,” Cázares-Kelly recalled about how the 2020 election fundamentally changed her job. “I think I finally came to the realization that the face of elections has changed permanently.”

A Disturbing New Trend in Political Violence

There’s been a string of recent arson incidents at ballot drop boxes that mark a dangerous and extremely disturbing trend in political violence. The first such incident to come across my radar was last week in Phoenix, Arizona, when someone set fire to a USPS drive-up collection box for mail that contained an unknown number of mail-in ballots. According to local police about 20 ballots were damaged and the suspect was apprehended. Police also said that the motive didn’t appear to be political. But whenever people’s votes are destroyed, it becomes political.

Similar incidents occurred early Monday morning in Portland, Oregon and Vancouver, Washington, where ballot drop boxes were set ablaze by unknown arsonists. In the Portland incident, police said only three ballots were damaged after an "incendiary device" was placed inside of a sidewalk ballot box in the Central City district. A similar incident, that local police believe to be connected, occurred minutes later in Vancouver but potentially destroyed hundreds of ballots — in the district currently held by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D), who’s campaign for reelection is one of the most highly contested U.S. House races this election cycle.

No suspect has been arrested and police haven’t said what the motive is for the Portland or Vancouver incidents. But it’s hard to treat such an intentional act — setting a ballot drop box on fire — as anything other than political violence.

For her part, Gluesenkamp Perez requested overnight law enforcement to be present at drop boxes throughout the county. “Our right to vote needs to be protected under all circumstances,” she said in a statement. “We can’t yield to intimidation, and we must continue to stand up against unpatriotic acts such as this one.”

Who Watches the Poll Watchers?

Poll watching is a longstanding, crucial but otherwise routine part of U.S. elections, where political parties recruit volunteers for every polling place to observe the process and make sure that voting and ballot counting happens as it’s legally supposed to. It’s been happening for a century or longer and it’s never really been controversial — until very recently.

In case you missed it, I recently wrote about how poll watching became a controversial and politically charged part of the elections process — and how that’s created more friction and turbulence in voting. Because of the recent rise of disinformation and dangerous election-related conspiracy theories, much like how right-wing groups and figures weaponized election certification in attempts to overturn the election results, the RNC and other groups are now training armies of poll watchers to sniff out election fraud that doesn’t exist — and, in the process, potentially intimidate voters.

For voting advocates and election experts, this new trend is nothing short of extremely concerning. “The problems we’re seeing with poll watchers are sometimes derived from these partisan interests,” Andrew Garber, a counsel within the Brennan Center’s Voting Rights and Elections Program, told me. “We’re seeing more and more that poll watchers think that they’re on a partisan mission that justifies rule breaking, or they are motivated by disinformation that has become pervasive in our elections and they want to stir up trouble.”

With less than a week to go until the election, it’s important to know what the rules are for poll watching in each state. And if you head to the polls and feel as though poll watchers aren’t following the rules and are intimidating voters, be sure to report it to an election official — and let us know, too: [email protected].